Daily write-up - Dec 13th

3 meetings today, at Cheltenham, Bangor and Downpatrick…

I could almost hear the gasps of disbelief, as I only put up a token 0.25pt tip for the first day of Cheltenham December meeting…

Mutterings of ‘TVB has lost the plot’ were doubtless circulating around the virtual world…

Let me give you my perspective…

I tip – and I produce a write-up.

The tips are designed to produce a profit – if they don’t, there is no point in producing them.

The write-up is designed to provide entertainment - again, if it fails to deliver, it has little point…

The first 6 weeks of the season, have absolutely confirmed to me, that if I just tip the ‘standard’ horses in the ‘standard’ races, we will lose money. It’s as simple a s that…

If I could tip when prices were first issued, it would be a different matter; if I could tip any time between then and the off, again, it would be a different matter.

However, I restrict myself (ordinarily) to tipping in an hour long window first thing in the morning (to make the service useable by you guys).

By that time, most of the value has gone from the obvious selections – and we are left chasing around scraps. If I just fall in line with the masses, our banks will gradually be eroded….

So instead, I have to get creative – and fortunately, I can be a creative guy (at least when it comes to picking horses !).

The Cheltenham card today is very nice. There are lots of very interesting races - and plenty of interesting horses. But with thousands of punters scouring the cards from 5:00 yesterday evening, what do you think is going to be left for us at 8:30 this morning ? Not a lot.

I’ll give you my view on each of the races – and as the race times get closer, maybe the odd bet will present itself. But at 8:30 this morning, there was very little I was interested in – at the available prices…

I did consider tipping at Downpatrick – but the weakness of the market there would have been exposed within 2 minutes of me issuing. So I went for a drifter at Bangor as the second tip of the day.

Clearly a risky move – but I’ll take my chance at the odds…

Anyway, hopefully that explains why I’ve done what I’ve done.

I’ll open the tipping window this evening for an hour, between 5:00 and 6:00 – in case there is a chance of beating the masses to a bit of value.

Whether anything materialises however, time alone will tell…

Onto the write-up for today then…

Cheltenham

1:05

Tipping a horse that has not run for over two years might seem like a risky thing to do ! – and I guess to some extent, it is…

However, when you look at Max Bygraves record fresh, there is little doubt that you want to catch him after an absence.

Of course, there is an absence, and there is an absence, and I can’t claim that I would have ideally chosen to tip him on his first run for 2 years. However, in this day and age, trainers are far more adept at getting horses to run well after a long time off the track – and if anything, it is on their second run after a break that you need to be wary.

Todays pot is probably as good as anything Max Bygraves could reasonably be expected to win – so I am hopeful that connections will have him spot on for the day.

If they do, then he is certainly handicapped to go close.

He was a comfortable winner on his seasonal debut 2 years ago, when running off exactly the same mark as he runs off today.

Trip and ground are also perfect for him today – and with a good jockey booking, he ticks all of the boxes (apart from the absence one !).

I could make cases for a few of his rivals: most notably, the Gordon Elliot trained Hit the Headlines. It is unusual for an Irish horse to be given a lower rating when it runs in the UK and this one may well be able to make the official handicapper regret his move.

He is a best priced 6/1 however, and is a 16 runner apprentice handicap, I would be wanting a bit more than that to take a risk.

0.25pt win Max Bygraves 20/1

I’m not sure I should really be expressing an opinion on the opener on the card…

I very much want Oscar Whiskey to beat Wonderful Charm – and whilst I think he can, I could also see the result going the other way.

It’s certainly a race I will be ducking from a betting perspective – just hoping instead, that Oscar comes out on top…

I was half tempted by Maxi Chop in the 1:40 race, on the back of a good run in a decent handicap here at the November meeting.

However, 7/2 is plenty short enough in a race where 4 or 5 have fair chances – and the remainder couldn’t be ruled out with confidence.

Once again, I was tempted in this race – but it wasn’t really the price that put me off…

The horse I was tempted by (unsurprisingly) was Monbeg Dude.

As you should know by now (assuming you’ve been paying attention !), I’m a big fan of his. He clearly has huge ability – as he can do so many things wrong in his races –and yet still win (or go close).

However, I have an issue today with the trip (too short) and ground (too quick) – and I don’t think the right man is on board either (Tom Scudamore).

The question I had to answer, was how many crosses am I prepared to accept in the boxes, and still tip one ?

I think in this instance, Monbeg Dude just has 1 or 2 too many, so I am reluctantly passing on him.

Assuming he doesn’t make me regret this decision, then Theatre Guide could be the one to take advantage.

However, he is a quirky horse and he did have a tough race in the Hennessy, just a fortnight ago. He certainly could win, but I wouldn’t be backing him at 7/2.

I don’t have a particularly strong view on the cross country chase, at 2:40…

The Enda Bolger trained Keep on Track looks very interesting with just 10st1lb on his back – but at 3/1 ? I think not…

If I had wanted to take a risk ,it would have been on Imperial Circus at 14/1. But, in truth, I didn’t dwell on that one for too long…

I quite like the look of Thomas Crapper in the 3:15 race.

He has won his last 2 outings over this course, in the style of a much improved performer – and I reckon there is a fair chance he will notch up his hatrick today.

However, this is another tight handicap and 11/2 about his chances can be described as no more than fair…

From a pure value perspective, Angle Hill, the horse Thomas beat last time, should be the call at 9/1 – but I reckon Thomas will have his measure again…

The last race on the card should be an absolute cracker, with 3 serious novices up against each other…

It’s nearly impossible to split them at this point in time, but if forced to pin my colours to one, then it would be Garde La Victoire.

Very much a race to watch with an eye to the future however…

Bangor

1:20

It could be considered a brave (or stupid !) decision to tip a horse trained by David Pipe, that is drifting…

However, if I ignore the drift and just look at the price, then I think that 10/1 is generous about a horse whom I think has a real chance of victory.

Firstly, I don’t think this is the most competitive of races –and I’ll be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from Guess Again, Hayjack or Preset View.

Mohi Rahrere has been backed –and that is a little worrying as I recall the same thing happening a few years ago, when he won a decent race at this course.

However, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, and on current form I don’t think he is good enough.

Summery Justice is another one who looks out of form; whilst Camden, Railway Dillion and Rapidolyte De Ladalka all look a bit slow…

Which leaves us with the big 3…

I’ve nothing much again the other 2 – however at 4 times the price I simply think Guess Again is the better bet.

He was a good winner on his seasonal debut at Warwick last month. Those behind him that day included Top Dancer and Whistling Senator and they have both franked the form subsequently.

Guess Again was made a short priced favourite for his next outing – but he disappointed badly that day.

However, that run came just 8 days after his Warwick win and as David Pipe has gone on record saying the horse needs gaps between this races, that maybe wasn’t too surprising.

He has now had the best part of a month to recover – and whilst I would maybe have liked another week or two, hopefully he will get away with it.

He should also love the relatively quick ground at Bangor and with 7lb claimer Kieron Edgar back in the plate, I am optimistic that he will put in a big run.

0.5pt win Guess Again 10/1

In the 12:45 race, My Flora has her first run for Dan Skelton and I could have been interested in this formerly decent pointer, if she was a price…
However, I don’t consider 5/2 a price – so it will be a watching brief instead…

I’ll also be watching Diamond King in the 2:20 race.

You may recall him from his hurdling debut at Wetherby a couple of weeks back.

He made a massive impression on me last season in bumpers – and duly scored first time up over hurdles.

It wasn’t a win that set the pulse racing – but assuming he has come on for it, I would expect him to blow away the opposition today…

Downpatrick

As I mentioned, I got very close to tipping Hidden Horizons in this – and if the 10/1 with Stan James had been available elsewhere, he would have been a 0.5pt tip.

However, the next best price was 7/1 – and that is what most of you would have got –and what I would have had to settle at, and I think the margin at that price is minimal…

In truth, she is a risky selection regardless…

Making her chasing debut today, over a trip which I feel is at least half a mile short of her optimum.

However, I have a lot of time for her trainer, Stuart Crawford, particularly at the Northern Irish tracks – and her aggressive style of running should be well suited to the tight Downpatrick track…

Furthermore, the opposition today looks decidedly limited, so whilst she herself is no world beater, she won’t need to be, to come out on top in this…

Like I say, at 10/1 she is a bet – at 7/1 she isn’t…

Finally, Ruby Walsh travels up to Downpatrick for one ride today.
On Hold em Cowboy, who runs in the handicap chase off a mark 12lb lower than he won a handicap hurdle off, last week…

There are subtle hints –and there are ones that smack you between the eyes.

This defiantly falls into the latter camp...!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chelt 1:05 Max Bygraves 20/1

Bang 1:20 Guess Again 10/1

Mentions

Chelt 1:40 Maxi Chop (P)

Chelt 2:10 Monbeg Dude (C)

Chelt 2:40 Imperial Circus (S)

Chelt 3:15 Thomas Crapper (P)

Bang 12:45 My Flora (P)

DwnP 2:15 Hidden Horizons (P)