Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 5 meetings today: Newbury, Chepstow and Catterick in the UK – plus day 3 of the festivals at Leopardstown and Limerick, in Ireland…

Today has to go down as the least inspiring Saturday of the season so far…

OK, there is the Welsh National at Chepstow and the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown – but if you take out those 2 races, it is pretty poor stuff – particularly for a Saturday…

I guess to an extent, it is to be expected.

There was top class racing both yesterday and on Boxing day – and there is some decent stuff tomorrow and on New years day.

Ultimately, there are only so many good class horses – and they just won’t stretch that far…

Ofcourse, you don’t necessarily need good class horses for tipping/betting purposes – but a lot of todays races also don’t have the shape required for betting in.

Anyway, it’s just one day in a long old season , so I need to keep it in perspective !

We’ve ended up with 4 small tips on the day – plus the ante post tip for Merry King.

Here’s the rationale for them – plus a few words on some of the days other races…

Chepstow

2:35

The presence of Tidal Bay has given the Welsh National field bit of a lop sided look…

He heads the weights on 11st12, with last years runner up, Teaforthree, next in on 11st2lb. There is then a big gap to the rest of the field, headed by Hey Big Spender on 10st7lb…

As a result, the bottom 8 horses in the race are carrying more weight than the official handicapper would have given them – not a great place for them to be starting from…

These races are difficult enough to win as it is, I’m always loathed to go for a horse carrying more weight than it should be doing…

That’s not the case for either of the selections in the race: Well Refreshed and Merry King.

I tipped Merry King just under a month ago, after he had run fifth in the Hennessy. That struck me as a very good trial for todays race – and now that he’s got the soft underfoot conditions he craves, I am  more than happy with our position on him.

I’ve added Well Refreshed today, because I see him as the biggest danger to Merry King.
As I’ve mentioned before, I was really taken by this horse last year - and if he could only learn to jump properly, I think he could prove himself much better than his current rating of 139…

It is testament to his natural ability, that despite whacking 3 or 4 fences a race, he has still managed to 4 of his last 8 races.

He probably would also have won at Sandown last time out – but he made at least 3 shocking blunders.

In fairness, Sandown is a tough course to jump round – so I take some positives out of the fact that he didn’t end up on the floor there !

Hopefully, he will manage to (somehow) get round Chepstow as well – and if he does, I think even Merry King might struggle to contain him.

Admirable character though he is, I just can’t have Tidal Bay off a mark of 163, 4 days short of his 13^th birthday; whilst Highland Lodge strikes me as the kind of horse best caught fresh…

You have to respect the chances of Goonyella – though he still has a fair bit to prove and is short enough in the betting as a consequence.

Two outsiders that I could see running well, are Knock a Hand and Goulanes.

Whilst those who like to play in running could do worse than backing Ace High pre-race and laying off rounding the home turn (before his stamina is fully questioned)

0.5pt win Well Refreshed 9/1

0.5pt win Merry King 16/1 (ante-post)

3:10

This looks a near impossible puzzle to solve – but Tranquil Sea is handicapped to win it, on his best form and will have underfoot conditions to suit…

Ofcourse, as I’ve said before , the reason horses tend to get well handicapped is because they are in decline.

Tranquil Sea has been a top class animal for 4 seasons now – provided the ground is riding soft.

As a former winner of both the Paddy Power Gold cup and the grade 1 John Durkan chase, he is literally thrown in off a mark of 139 today.

Whilst it is true that he has not shown his best form for a little while, he did run very well, as recently as April, when he was runner up in a decent handicap chase at the Punchestown festival.

That run showed that a lot of ability is still there…

Tranquil Sea transferred to the stable of Warren Greatrex over the summer and makes his debut for him today off a mark 5lb lower than his Punchestown run.

He has shown himself in the past, capable of running well first time out – and with his 12^th birthday on the horizon, I can’t see any reason why Greatrex wouldn’t have him ready to perform today.

Apparently the horse has had his breathing tweaked, which again suggests he should be primed for today.

Of his opponents, top weight Maile De Bievre is the one that interested me most…

Now rated 20lb lower than when making his UK debut  earlier this year, he could potentially laugh at his rivals – if he can reproduce his French form.

However, he has already been given a few chances – and simply the margin wasn't there in his price to take a risk…

It was in the price of Tranquil Sea, so he is the one we are on.

0.5pt win Tranquil Sea 16/1

I was half tempted by Xaarcet in the 1:00 race…

We were on him last time at Sandown when he ran disappointingly. However, the quick ground and relatively sharp track seemed not to suit him that day.

A multiple winner over hurdles in the heavy, he should be much better suited by todays test.

However, he is best priced 11/2 – and with it hard to eliminate many of his rivals, there just isn’t the margin to make him a tip…

In the following race, despite a 10lb hike in the weights, I still think that Moorlands Mist is the one to beat…

I tried to find something to beat him – but I didn’t have much joy.

Half cases can be made for quite a few in the field – but I think he is on a steep upward curve.

The big doubt, is how he will handle the very heavy ground – but if he goes through it, I think he will win…

He was a best price 3/1 in a place this morning – which was too tight.

He is now 4/1 and that would have been tempting.

I’ll make him a Top Pick instead !!

Leopardstown

12:50

This is not a race I intended to play in – but at 25/1, in a first time tongue tie, I just had to take a tiny risk on Sarabad…

He is clearly a horse with significant ability and he really caught my eye with the way he travelled through the race on his seasonal debut at Naas.

I clearly wasn’t he only one who spotted him that day as he was backed down to 11/4 second favourite in a 12 runner handicap at Clonmel next time out.

However, he disappointed that day – and it was the same story on his most recent outing at Navan (when he was again well backed).

The horse travels supremely well through his races – but then just doesn’t find for pressure…

Classically, that is the sign of a breathing problem – so it looks very significant that Willie Mullins reaches for a tongue tie today.

I tend to be a little wary of horses with tongue ties because even if the equipment does sort out the problem  – you still know there is an underlying problem (which could resurface at any point).

Furthermore, the tongue tie might not cure the problem regardless – in which case you’ve got your hopes up for nothing !

However, there is always the chance that the tongue tie will work the oracle – and if that happens, then Sarabad isn’t a 25/1 shot, off just 10st in this particular race !

Fingers crossed then !!

0.25pt win Sarabad 25/1

2:55

I’ve got top be honest, whilst I think todays Lexus chase is there for the winning, I’m not sure which horse is going to be winning it…

The thing is, there are big question marks over the top two in the betting: Bobs Worth  and Sir Des Champs.

First and second in last seasons Gold Cup, things haven’t go quite so well for them this campaign…

Bobs Worth was a massive disappointment at Haydock, whilst Sir Des Champs took a crashing fall at Punchestown.

Ofcouse both might bounce back to form today – but on the back of their recent runs, it would be a brave man who supported them at such cramped odds…

If you take those 2 out of the race, then it looks quite light weight.

Unioniste is third favourite for the race, but he is held by Lord Windermere on their running in last seasons Sun Alliance chase at the Cheltenham festival.

Lord Windermere has only run once since wining that race – when comfortably beaten in the Hennessey. However he was well backed that day and things didn’t go for him during the race. I think that run can be ignored…

Even without it however, there are question marks in my mind as to whether he will be good enough to win today.

However, there are question marks over every horse in the race – and at last we are getting a decent price on a horse with potential to improve…

The other one to catch my eye, is the ex French Rubi Ball.

He was a disappointment on his Irish debut over hurdles – but it looks significant that Willie Mullins now pitches him in a grade 1 chase.

That said, if he was really fancied, I just can’t believe he would be a 14/1 chance…

I might be wrong, but I couldn’t bring myself to tip him.
Instead, we’ll stick with Lord Windermere. Hardly the most rock solid of tips – but worth a small play at the prices…

0.25pt win Lord Windermere 10/1

Newbury

What a disappointing card…

There are barely any runners – and I found it nearly impossible to find an angle into any of the races, that hadn’t been covered by the bookmakers…

In terms of fancies, then I would select Saroque in the 12:45 race.

He should handle the ground, no problem – but there is little margin in a quote of 4/1 in a tight 6 horse race.

There are question marks over just about every runner in the 1:15 race.

At the prices, it might be worth a tiny play on Jaunty Journey. He will love the ground and trip – though he has been woefully out of form…

The 1:45 race looks interesting enough – but nearly impossible to solve with any confidence…

Oscar Rock could possibly be different class – but I won’t be taking 7/2 to find out.
the most solid option is probably Kaki De La Pree. He will handle the ground and should therefore run his race – but it will be no surpriose if a couple are too good for him…

Over half a mile shorter, I could have been very interested in Kazlian in the 2:50 race – but I’m not sure that his stamina will last out 2m5f in the very heavy ground…

Time will tell, I guess…

Limerick

As I mentioned, I got very close to tipping Glenquest in the 3:15 race…

He has been running well in better class contests than this – and todays 3 miles on heavy ground will be perfect for him…

However, his recent runs have been with head gear in place – and it is removed today. Also, he carries top weight – and if connections really wanted to go for it, I think a claimer would  be on board rather than Adrian Heskin…

In short, the subtle signs tell me not today – and at 8/1 there isn’t sufficient margin to ignore them…

Finally, Louisville Lip might not win the 2:40 race – but I suspect he will run better than his 20/1 odds would imply…

Maybe a back pre-race to lay in-running option…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Chep 2:35 Well Refreshed 9/1

Chep 2:35 Merry King (16/1 AP)

Chep 3:10 Tranquil Sea 16/1

Leop 12:50 Sarabad 25/1

Leop 2:55 Lord Windermere 10/1

*Mentions

Chep 1:00 Xaarcet (P)

Newb 12:45 Saroque (P)

Newb 1:15 Jaunty Journey (S)

Newb 1:45 Oscar Rock (P)

Newb 2:50 Kazlain (C)

Lim 2:40 Louisville Lip (S)

Lim 3:15 Glenquest (O)

**Top Picks

Chep 1:30 Moorlands Mist

* Mentions are horses that I fancy – but not strongly enough to make them tips…

The main reason they are not tips, is put in brackets after the horses name:

P – Price

O – Opposition

S – Speculative

C – Conditions

** Top Picks are horses I expect to win ! The price is immaterial and the hope is that they will produce a profit, just backing at BSP (Betfair Starting Price)