Daily write-up - Dec 22nd

The final days racing before Christmas, gives us a meeting at Bangor, another at Thurles – and a couple of AW bumpers at Lingfield…

Just a quick refection on yesterday…

It was great to read on the blog that both Liam and Frank (aka Roy !) had managed to get 4 figure payouts by combining yesterday tips in EW accumulators…

I’m sure Liam won’t mind me sharing with you, that he contacted me earlier in the week, asking how I felt he should best make use of the service…

I said to him what I’ll say to you all now…

If you simply want to back the suggested tips to suggested stakes, then fine – I would expect you to make a profit.

However, it really should be possible to do so much better than that – if you want to…

I think my output has gone up a notch from last season (and I don’t think it was too bad then !).

I’ve got a clearer structure for the write-ups – and my willingness to tip both short priced ‘certs’ and longer priced ‘speculative’ ones has given the service a new dimension…

When you add the mentions into the mix – plus hopefully the Top Picks, then there really should be something for everyone…

Whether you choose to use the narrative to work out in–running plays; or maybe identify possible forecasts – or use the tips/mentions to support your own working/thoughts - will all depend on your individual preferences.

And obviously quite a few of you just like to chance your arm and put them all in accumulators.

When the luck is with you, why not ?!

Whatever, the bottom line is that it is the responsibility of each of you to find a way to maximise the profit from the service.

I think that 90% of you signed up to the service to help you make a profit – but you need to be doing your bit, if you are to really make it pay…

Liam clearly took on board what I said and ended up over £2K better off as result – very nice too a few days before Christmas…

Anyway, enough of my preaching (although it is the Sabbath, so I’m allowed a little lee–way !).

Just the 2 tips today – and to be honest, I only really looked at 2 races…

One we are already familiar with – the other less so…!

Here’s the rationale:

Thurles

12:20

Foritsa did us a good turn the last time he ran, when comfortably winning a chase at Wexford.

That wasn’t the greatest race ever run – but it wasn’t a bad race for the grade, as was demonstrated by the fact that the second and third that day, subsequently fought out the finish to a similar race at Tramore…

Foritsa was a comfortable winner that day and an 8lb rise for his efforts really doesn’t look overly harsh…

As I said when I tipped him last time, he’s a horse with very limited experience under rules, so it is perfectly reasonable to think that he still has some improvement in him (despite the fact he is 9 years old).

The big question mark today, is the trip…

It seems a little odd that he has been dropped half a mile in distance, having stayed on stoutly at Wexford.

That said, he also showed plenty of pace that day, racing front rank throughout. And his proven stamina might just turn out to be an asset, if the ground at Thurles today is riding heavy….

I can see quite a few potential dangers in the race (more than I could see the last time he ran) – but all of them have got to give Foritsa quite a bit of weight (generally, a stone or more).

There is definitely a chance that he won’t be quite up to todays class – particularly over today trip. However, I think it is worth giving him the benefit of the doubt.

We know he’s in good form: we know the form of his last run is stronger than it might appear; we know he has potential to improve - and he remains on an attractive handicap mark.

At 8/1 I think he is worth taking a risk on…

0.5pt win Foritsa 8/1

12:50

Oliver McKiernan is a trainer I follow very closely…

I’m probably in a minority there, as he’s not the most prolific of operators.

In fact, prior to yesterday, he’d not sent out a winner for over 9 months (during which time, he’d saddled not far shy of 100 runners). Like I say, hardly prolific…

But given the right ammunition, he’s good – in fact, he’s very good…

His most famous inmate, was Follow the Plan: a triple grade 1 winner, who rarely started at anything other than double figure odds – and won the Betfred bowl at odds of 50/1. Nice !

Anyway, my point is, Oliver McKiernan is more than capable of training racehorses – despite what the stats might say – and after along run in the wilderness, I think he might be about to come back into form - and with some now well handicapped horses at his disposal…

One such horse, is Royalor.

Now a cursory glance at his form might make you wonder why on earth I would think him a well handicapped horse…

7 runs under rules, he’s never been beaten less than 13 lengths (generally significantly more) and has failed to complete on his 3 latest outings…

However, dear reader, you need to look a little more closely…

In his first 3 runs in chases, he was never beaten less than 50 lengths – however, in races won by the likes of Lake Windermere and Boston Bob, that was maybe not too surprising…

As a result of those efforts, he was given an opening handicap mark of 88 – and that was the race in which it would appear he ran his best race to date – a beating of 13 lengths…

But that wasn’t his best run to date.

His next run was probably his best run to date. In a 19 runner handicap chase at Leopardstown, wearing cheek pieces for the first time, he was went off a mere 8/1 shot. Clearly somebody thought he had some ability…

And low and behold they were right ! He was just about in the lead and still going very nicely when he decanted his jockey are the third last fence – damn !!

That was it for last season – and he came back out at the end of October, no cheek pieces and promptly pulled up (thereby confirming what the masses thought – ie. that he was useless).

However next time out (and his most recent run) he again ran to a level close to his Leopardstown run.

The cheek pieces were back on and he was still going very nicely in a 6 length lead, when he clouted the fourth last fence.

Despite that shuddering mistake (which cost him at least 10 lengths - and momentum) he was still in with a chance on the home turn and only backed out of things on the run to the final fence (he was pulled up just before it).

Consequently, I honestly believe we are looking at a horse in top form, for a trainer who could be about to spring back into form himself.

The horse is well handicapped – and should have no issues with trip or ground.

Clearly he has some jumping issues (his form figures could look very different if he didn’t !) but that is something we’ll just have to keep our fingers crossed over…

In short, if I‘ve read this right, he is a very good bet indeed….

Hopefully we didn’t beat connections to the price – so provided his jumping holds up, we could be in for an interesting time this afternoon !

0.75pt win, 0.25pt place Royalor 25/1

Lingfield

Another non prolific trainer that I follow, is Adrian Maguire.

He was an admirable jockey: fearless and strong – and it is my understanding, that his is a top, top guy…

As a trainer, he’s not achieved too much – I believe he focuses mainly on preparing young horses (he had Denman for a while, before he went to Paul Nicholls).

Anyway, he sends a couple of horses to Lingfield this afternoon, to run in the AW bumpers…

That strikes me as a very odd move (he literally only has one or two runners a month).

They may ofcourse be useless (the first of them has never run before) – but I kind of doubt that…

Maybe a little win double could be the order of the day…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Thrl 12:20 Foritsa 8/1

Thrl 12:50 Royalor 25/1

Mentions

Ling 12:30 Molly Beag (S)

Ling 1:00 Mm Dazzler (S)