Daily write-up - Dec 6th

Just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon, at Sandown and Exeter…

Both are reasonable cards however and finding a tip wasn’t too difficult.

There are a few mentions as well – so let’s hope I’ve managed to get those borderline calls right today…

I found it very interesting watching the markets, after I had issues the tips today...

The 10/1 on Major Malarkey didn’t last too long – which wasn’t to surprising, as it was a stand out price.

However, the 25/1 on Xaarcet did resist the power of TVB, which was quite interesting to observe.

True, it was only a small stake – but I still reckon that if I’d issued the tip an hour earlier, the price would have quickly disappeared.

Obviously, waiting that extra hour is risky – as you never know who else is going to be backing/tipping it – but on occasions, it probably makes sense (assuming I’ve got the flexibility to enable me to play it that way !).

Just a reminder, that I am going away today for the weekend – so there will be no write-ups or reviews from now until Sunday evening/Monday morning (depending on what time I get back home).

I do plan to have a look at the overnight declarations for tomorrow/Sunday, before  I set off - and if I get 10 mins, I will send you a very brief summary of my thoughts.

If there is anything I really fancy for either day, then I will make sure that I let you know – somehow !

Anyway, that is for the weekend ahead, we’ve got today to deal with first – so here is the rationale for todays two tips – along with a few thoughts on some of the other races…

Exeter

2:05

It strikes me that he handicapper has been very generous in dropping Major Malarkey 8lb, for what was admittedly a poor run on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham…

It was always likely that Major Malarkey would come on for that run, which was over an inadequate 3 mile trip – and whilst I would have liked to see him hang on to the pack for a little longer than he did, he didn’t lose much ground over the final half mile of the race…

As recently as January, Major Malarkey was rated 17lb higher – and off that rating, he ran a creditable 6^th behind Rigadin De Beauchene in the classic chase at Warwick.

Furthermore he was sent off at just 17/2 that day – despite the fact hat ground was always likely to prove too soft for him.

Todays quicker ground will certainly suit him much better.

Major Malarkey hasn’t performed with much credit since the Warwick run – but a combination of unsuitable trips (too short) or ground (too heavy) mean that all of those runs can be excused, relatively easily.
With ideal conditions today; Sam Twiston Davies back  on board – and blinkers applied for the first time, I don’t think there will be any excuses if he fails to perform..

If he does perform, then I’m optimistic that he will be good enough to win – though there are a couple of young unexposed sorts in the field, who could be troublesome…

They are Jayanbee and Whistling Senator – and whilst I respect both, I would be more fearful of the former..

However, I do think that Major Malarkey sets a good standard – and hopefully he will have just a bit too much experience for the young upstarts…!

0.5pt win Major Malarkey 10/1

Later on the Exeter card, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tara Rose give the Twiston Davies a double on the afternoon…

She was unlucky not to collect on her seasonal debut at Wetherby – and whilst she disappointed a little next time out, that was over hurdles, in quite a hot mares race at Wincanton.
Back over the bigger obstacles today, I could see her picking up from her Wetherby run…

The main issue with her is the price – in the face of some quite stern opposition…

There may only be 7 runners in the race, but it is hard to rule any of them out with confidence, so a best price of 6/1 on Tara Rose doesn’t leave much margin for error…

Sandown

1:10

I could have been quite sweet on Xaarcet today – if he were running in a different race !

Instead, he has become a borderline call – with me pushed over the edge by a price which I feel is just too big…

The reason his price is so big however, is because he faces some pretty fearful opponents !

The Italian Yob, Foundation Man and Miss Ballantyne, are all open to significant improvement – whilst the likes of Silver Commander, Ballincurig and Royal Guardsman are not easily dismissed either…

However, everything has its price and at 20/1 and bigger, I think Xaarcet is worth a small play.

He was very progressive last season, wining 3 handicap hurdles on the bounce, before his form levelled off a bit at the end of the season.

First time out this campaign, he was put straight over fences and was in the process of running a good race when he got broadsided by one of his rival at the third last fence.

That effectively ended his chance in the race and he was allowed to come home in his own time.

However, he had shown enough promise to that point to make of him of definite interest next time up (ie. today).

All of Xaarcets wins last season were on heavy ground – so todays much quicker conditions are a potential concern.

However, there is also the chance that his wins on heavy ground were just a coincidence. It is quite possible that he came to himself when the ground was heavy –and he simply had no issue performing on it.
Certainly a creditable run at Wincanton in February on ground that was described as good to soft, suggested that he didn’t need a bog to be seen at his best.

If that is the case, and if he takes to Sandown’s tricky fences today, then I think he has the potential to outrun his dismissive odds.

0.25pt EW Xaarcet 25/1

In the opener on the card, I will be keeping a very close eye on Abracadabra Sivola…

He strikes me as a horse who will win a race or two this season – though I doubt it will be today..

My feeling is that he will need a greater test of stamina than he will get his afternoon – either softer ground or a longer trip (or both).

One to keep an eye on for the future though…

There are only 3 runners in the 2:20 race – but it could still be a fascinating contest…

My expectation is that Rolling Aces will prove too good for both Harry Topper and Vino Griego…

In different circumstances, I could easily side with one of the others – but the Sandown fences may be a bit too much for Harry, whilst I’m pretty sure that Vino Griego would be more effective on much softer ground…

Our old friend Top Dancer makes a quick reappearance in the 2:55 race, following his bloodless victory of last week. And with just a 7lb penalty for that win, he was quite tempting – even at a best price of 9/4…

However, there are a few things that worry me: firstly, he is back on the track a week after his last run – and with 7lb extra to carry; secondly, he is running over a trip which could be considered short of his best; and thirdly, I just don’t know how he will handle the Sandown track…

I’m pretty sure that the Railway fences will hold no fears for him (he jumping tends to be accurate and assured); however, the tight, right hand Sandown track, is in compete contrast to the big left handed track at Newbury..

He may well have sufficient talent to get away with it all – but at 9/4, I just don’t think he is value…

If he does come unstuck, then I think Merrion Square is the one most likely to take advantage. The trouble with him, is that he doesn’t look overly well handicapped…

I could also give half a chance to Monkerty Tunkerty and Savant Bleu – though both come with pretty big risks attached.

In short, a race where it is difficult to make a call…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 2:05 Major Malarkey 10/1

Sand 1:10 Xaarcet 25/1

Mentions

Exe 3:15 Tara Rose (P)

Sand 2:30 Rolling Star (P)

Sand 2:55 Merrion Square (O)