Daily write-up - Dec 1st

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK – and Fairyhouse in Ireland…

The Fairyhouse meeting takes pride of place – with some top quality contests. However, the supporting cards aren’t too shabby, so I think we are in for a good afternoon…

It was back to the flashing lights yesterday evening, when I was searching for tips…

I’ve found 4 – and if pressed, I could probably have found 4 more !

As with Friday however, discretion has got the better of valour – I’ve gone with the strongest bets – and staked them ‘sensibly’…
As I keep on saying, there is a long season ahead of us…

Just a quick early warning that I will probably take off tomorrow (unless there is anything running that must be tipped !).

As I mentioned last week, I think I need to take off a day or two a week, just to enable me to keep a perspective. I’ve also got quite a lot of admin to catch up with, so I need some time for that…

Anyway, enough pre-amble  - on to the days action, starting at Fairyhouse….

Fairyhouse

1:45

I don’t want to get too carried away here, but I reckon Liz’s Destruval is probably the best tip I’ve put up so far this season !!

I’ve got to be honest, I was kind of hoping she would slip under the radar and that we would get a real price about her today.

She has unfashionable connections and fell last time out – but alas, in this day and age, very little gets under the radar.

Ofcouse, her price wasn’t helped when the spotlight guy in the Racing Post napped her (and I felt very unlucky with that, as he’s a complete guesser, so his pin could just about have fallen anywhere !).

Still, these things happen – and I’m sure she would have been picked up on eventually – her credentials really are very strong…

She has actually only competed under rules just twice (she is from the PTP field).

First time out in June, she won a mares beginners chase at Listowel by a comfortable 4 lengths.

However it was her second run under rules, that provides the main source of the case for her today…

That was in a graded chase at Clonmel, where Lizs Destruval ran an absolute cracker – particularly for one so inexperienced…

She was in fourth place –and still in with half a chance, when she came down at the second last.

It’s impossible to say where she would have finished – but I saw enough to know that, all things being equal, she will be a match for the first 3 home that day.

And that is the interesting point, because the first and third in that race do reoppose today – but they are massively worse off at the weights…

In the Clonmel race, Ballinahow Lady and Avondhu Lady were both giving Lizs Destruval 8lbs - today they have to give her 28lb and 25lb respectively… (plus a possible 3lb claim by Lizs jockey).

Simply, according to the form book, those 2 shouldn’t finish within 10 lengths of Liz’s Destruval today – yet they are second and third favourite for the race…

I also think that Lizs Destruval has far more scope for improvement – so you can maybe see why I am so sweet on her chances…

Ofcourse, despite all this, she is no certainty. She fell last time out – and we won’t know whether that has affected her confidence until the race is underway.
Also, there are other runner s in the race with a chance – such as Vitrix Gale.
However, there is a compelling case for Lizs Destruval having about 20lb in hand of her current mark – and if that is the case, I’ll be surprised if she is beaten today…

1pt win Liz’s Destruval 8/1

2:50

Put simply, if connections want Sword Fish to win this race today, then he almost certainly will…

He was an incredibly easy winner of the Cork National last time out (beating Unoccupied L) and although he has been given a 15lb hike in the weights for that win – an extra stone on his back wouldn’t have stopped him that day and todays contest looks easier…

It’s over virtually the same trip - and whilst todays ground is likely to be a bit quicker, I can’t see why that should be an issue (it won’t exactly be fast !).

The booking of the excellent Jody McGarvey for the ride, hardly tempers enthusiasm either. He is tremendous value for his 5lb claim..

Furthermore, looking through his rivals, I’m struggling to see much that can mount a serious challenge. In short, I really do feel that todays race is Sword Fish’s to lose…

Obviously I feel a little apprehensive putting up a JP McManus owned horse in a handicap at 11/4 – and seeing it drift early, doesn’t help with that feeling !

However, I think too much can sometimes be read into these kind of things: the formbook says Sword Fish should win today – and provided there s not a significant late drift, I will be very surprised if he doesn’t go extremely close today.

0.5pt win Swordfish 11/4

There is also some tremendous graded action on the Fairyhouse card (so you should be suitably entertained in the races where you haven’t got a bet !).

In the Royal Bond novice hurdle, I could have been tempted by Gambling Girl at last nights 10/1…

Obviously there is a lot of guesswork involved in these kind of races – but she made a huge impression when winning last time out at Down Royal.
She gets a 7lb mares allowance today – and that could prove crucial…

However, I was also very impressed by Gilt Shadow when he won at the same meeting: and the fact that The Tullow Tanks connections have been prepared to fork out to supplement him for the race, suggest they fancy their chances too..

In short, too many unknowns – and too many potentially good horses.

A race to watch and enjoy…

The Drinmore novice chase is the next race on the card and whilst the field isn’t as big – it looks almost as competitive…

Don Cossack is the one we want to be cheering on, as he ran Morning Assembly close last time out.

It also looked to me that day as if he would appreciate todays shorter trip.

However, he faces at least 2 serious rivals in the shape of Sizing Rio and Road to Riches.

The former was an incredibly impressive winner last time out, when he was a mention; whilst the latter got the better of Foxrock and Operating on his chasing debut.

Another mouth watering race in prospect…

It will be a little disappointing if Jezki doesn’t win the Hattons Grace hurdle at 2:15 - but I don’t think it is a formality for him…

The 2m4f trip takes him into unknown territory - and if his opponents do choose to test his stamina, who knows what might happen..

I think he will probably win – and I certainly hope he does – if not, Zaidpour may be the one to take advantage – at a price…

Leicester

1:00

Daymar Bay was the first one I looked at in this race…

He was an unlucky loser last time out and it is not difficult to see him going one better today (particularly if ridden handier).

However, as I’ve said before, there is little point finding the most likely winner of a race if everyone else has found it aswell – simply, you won’t get any ‘value’..

One that less people are likely to find (initially, at least ;) ) is Ironic…

An ex French horse, he really caught my eye with the way he travelled on his UK debut at Newbury last November…

Although ultimately only fifth in that race, he matched strides with a couple of rivals who are rated in the 130s, only giving best after the second last hurdle.

If the visual impression he made that day is correct, he is thrown in today off a mark of 112.

He has fallen to that mark because of a subsequent disappointing run at Catterick. However that was on very heavy ground, so I am prepared to forgive it…

His French form actually confirms the promise of his Newbury run and suggests he should be rated around 130.

With a summer in this country on his back, I can see him going palces this season - hopefully starting this afternoon !!

0.5pt win Ironic 11/1 (pre R4)

I probably will never tip in a seller as they are very difficult races to read (due to the nature of the contestants – often, old, unsound or unreliable sorts !!)

However, I did briefly consider putting up Drumgooland today…

Previously trained by Andy Oliver in Ireland, he has only had a couple of runs for Richard Newland and has shown very little.

However, he has the basic ability to win this – and if the good Doctor can sort his head out (and not many outfox him !) then he may well go in today…

I was also half tempted by The Potting Shed in the 2:05 race…

He looks a much improve performer this season  - and has certainly had far fewer chances than most of the field.

He should be favourite for this, in my book – so 7/2 this morning was quite tempting..

However, I don’t think there is a lot of margin in that price – and to be honest, these are the sorts that I’m looking more at making mentions than tips…

The race looks tricky enough, as I could give half a chance to quite a few.

The Potting Shed may well be good enough to win – but if does, it will be as a mention…

First day of the month, then Hartside must be about to deliver at a price !!

I might live to regret it, but for the second successive month he’s going to be a mention on day 1…

Again, I could really fancy him  –but I would want slightly different circumstances (a longer trip or softer ground).

Ofcourse, Leicester is quite a tough track – so if there is a lot of pace in the race, he could come through late – but that is a chance I will take.

I just think we need to bide our time with him – there is another win in him this season - but hopefully not today…

The one who really did catch my eye in this race was Dovils Date.
Despite top weight, I think he could be really well handicapped.
However, it is his first run for a long time, so there have to be some doubts…

At 8/1 maybe those doubts are factored  into the price – but with a competitive field in opposition, I’m giving him a miss as well…

All things being equal, I think Lodgician should win the 3:10 race..

But as we saw yesterday with Pod, in these low grade races, all things aren’t always equal…

Todays opposition looks very poor (scarily so !) – so he is probably only the best of an extremely moderate bunch…

Would I expect him to win this race more often than 1 time in 4 – Yes.
Am I prepared to put him up as a tip at 3/1 – No. Not today, anyway…

Carlisle

1:55

A bit like Ironic, Fiddlers Rest is a risky selection - but one I think provides some value at the early prices…

My rout into this race was actually via Safran Du Cotte.

He has a tremendous record fresh and Henry Daly has taken him a long way for this race. I struggle to see why he won’t run very well…

However it is a tricky race to fathom – and he is short enough at 4/1.

Instead, I’ve taken a bit of a flyer on Fiddlers Reel…

He can best be described as talented – but fragile ! He maybe 10 – but he’s only run 8 times in his life. However on the occasions he has run, he’s given indication numerous times, that he has significant ability…

As recently as April, he was a well backed winner of a fair chase at Perth. He has been raised 8lb for that win – but his subsequent run behind a couple of serious novice chasers suggests that his current mark of 117 shouldn’t be beyond him…

Clearly there have to be some worries about his physical well being – but I think they are factored into the price.

He is one that I would like to see strong in the market – as I think connections will know whether they have got him right for today…

If they have, then I think he has the basic ability to go very close - if they haven’t he probably won’t even finish…

I think that’s what you call a gamble !!

0.5pt win Fiddlers Reel 10/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB

Tips

Fair 1:45 Liz’s Destruval 8/1

Fair 2:50 Sword Fish 11/4

Leic 1:00 Ironic 11/1

Carl 1:55 Fiddlers Reel 10/1

Mentions

Fair 12:40 Gambling Girl (O)

Fair 1:10 Don Cossack (P)

Leic 1:30 Drumgooland (S)

Leic 2:05 The Potting Shed (P)

Leic 2:35 Hartside (C) & Dovils Date (C)

Leic 3:10 Lodgician (O)

Carl 1:55 Safran Du Cotte (P)