Daily write-up - Dec 21st

The final Saturday before Christmas and there are 4 NH meetings: at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland…

I had a quick look at the Newcastle and Navan cards, but there was nothing of any interest, so I focused all of my attention on Ascot and Haydock…

Initially I wasn’t overly optimistic that they were going to yield much – but when I looked a little deeper, quite a few things started to fall out.

As a result, we’ve ended up with tips in 6 races – which is obviously quite a lot.

That said, I’ve not gone mad with the staking, so we’re not risking too many points…

The policy of spreading the tips wide and thin has served us well this month, so I see little need to change it.

There is a chance that today will be the last day that I tip before Christmas.

There are only 2 meeting tomorrow and a quick look revealed little of interest at Bangor.

There are a couple of possibilities at Thurles – but as those races won’t be priced up until at 9:00 tomorrow morning, you won’t be hearing from me before that time.

Anyway, that’s tomorrow – we’ve got a big day today to get out of the way first !

As always, I’ve produced the tip rationale – though there aren’t many mentions today – and no Top Picks either (just a coincidence)….

Ascot

3:00

This is a disappointing turn out, for such a valuable prize – still, if we can find the winner, I don’t suppose many of you will be complaining too much !

A little bit like Thursday, I think one stands out – and yet again, it is trained by Venetia…

Houblon Des Obeaux was massively impressive, when hacking up by 6 lengths in the United House Gold Cup, over this very course and distance

His performance that day came as something of a surprise – but there was absolutely no fluke about it.

He had shown similar levels of form last season and was simply bouncing back to his best.

Back in third place that day, was Trioilo D’Alene. Despite being beaten 9 lengths, he amazingly reopposes today on 3lb worse terms today ! However, there is good reason for that…

On his next run, Triolo D’Alene won the Hennessy – with Houblon 18 lengths back in sixth place – so it is currently 1-1 between the pair…

Who is going to come out on top today then..?

My feeling is that is will be Houblons turn: back over the course and distance at which he took the lead in their personal battle – but more importantly on rain softened ground.

The key to Triolo D’Alene would appear to be quick ground – but he won’t be getting that today…

Outside the top 2, I genuinely struggle to muster much enthusiasm for anything…

Bless the Wings could be interesting over a slightly shorter trip – and if his stable was in better form – but other than that, it’s not easy to make much of a case…

As a consequence, I think Houblon represents a very good bet – and even though he’s trained by Venetia, I’ve bravely edged his staking up a fraction.

He (and she !) better not let me down !!

0.75pt win Houblon Des Obeaux 4/1

1:50

Despite appearing to be a horse in decline, I’m not entirely convinced that is the case with Gus Macrea…

Following a victory over this course and distance 12 months ago, Gus Macrea was given a rating of 136.

In his next race, off that mark, he tried to give 10lb to Ulck Du Lin – and failed by 7 and a half lengths.

Today, Ulck Du Lin has to give Gus Macrea 18lbs. That’s a turn round in the weight of 2 stone – for a beating of 7 lengths…

Ofcourse, it’s rarely as simple as that – but it does help indicate that Gus Macrea is potentially a well handicapped horse…

As I’ve said before however, you generally get well handicapped because you are running badly.

However, occasionally (and I believe this to be such a case) you get well handicapped because you appear to be running badly (when in fact, you are not !).

Following his seasonal debut at Bangor (which was a poor run), Gus Macrea has run 3 times this season and shown promise on each occasion without being good enough to reach the placings…

As a consequence however, his mark has dropped 6lb – and sooner or later (hopefully the former) he is going to come good.

As I mentioned, he’s won over course and distance – so neither should be a problem. And whilst he has a stated preference for decent ground – that isn’t really borne out by the form book…

Looking at the opposition, the unexposed pair of Pendra and Grey Gold seem to be the ones to be most concerned about.

However, Pendra is very short in the betting for one so inexperienced and Grey Gold would probably prefer more of a test…

Elenika looks the most dangerous of the exposed horses – but I would be optimistic that Gus would have his measure…

0.5pt win Gus Macrea 10/1

3:35

I was tempted to swerve this race completely…

It looks ridiculously difficult to solve – with at least a dozen potential winners in the field.

However, I decided that we owed it to our new favourite trainer – Dan Skelton – to support his runner in the race…

Needless to say, this isn’t just a sentimental bet – I think there are good reasons for thinking that Willows Saviour can run a big race – and possibly even win !

Just over a month ago, it would have seemed highly unlikely that Willows Saviour would even be able to compete in todays race.

He made his debut for Skelton in a 2m4f novice handicap at this track, off a mark of 115…

However, Willow Saviours absolutely bolted up in that race – and turned out under a penalty at Musselburgh a week later, did exactly the same thing over half a mile less…

That form is still a long way removed from winning a race such as todays – but the truth of the matter is, we’ve absolutely no idea how good Willows Saviour could be…

He’s shown himself capable over 2m on a sharp track –and 2m4f on this track – so he shouldn’t lack for tactical versatility.

He has also sneaked into the handicap off the very bottom weight…

The big question is simply whether he has enough class to mix it with borderline Champion hurdle horses – and we just don’t know the answer to that…

However, at odds of 16/1 I think there are enough positives in his profile to take a small chance…

0.25pt win Willows Saviour 16/1

I did originally plan to make Sybarite a minimum tip in the first race…

On his form from a couple of seasons back, he is throw in today – and he has subsequently been very successful in the PTP field…

However, he was a huge disappointment on his return to hurdles at this track a month ago and whilst this represent a significant drop in class, there were just a few too many doubts in my mind…

Ofcourse, he could hack up – and I wouldn’t put off anyone from having a small wager on him – but for official purposes, he is just a mention…

All things being equal, the Long Walk hurdle looks effectively a match, between At Fishers Cross and Reve De Sivola…
That said, both ran disappointingly last time – and consequently it is not a race in which you could bet with much confidence…

At the prices on offer  –and on the soft ground – Reve De Sivola would have to be the shout.

However, I would very much like to see At Fishers Cross wining – so in the circumstances, I think it best to swerve the race…

Haydock

12:00

As regular reader will know, I’ve been waiting for Hartside to run in the mud…

That happens today – but unfortunately, he’s chosen quite a competitive race in which to do it !

That’s a shame really as I did fancy getting stuck into him – knowing that conditions today should be perfect. However, there are now only 7 runners in the race – and I could give serious chances to at least 3 of the others, so caution has to be the order of the day…

I won’t bother going over the reasons for fancying Hartside – I feel I’ve written enough about him already this season.

Suffice to say, despite edging up the weights, I think he will perform much better in todays soft ground, than he has done so far this season on surfaces that would have quicker than ideal…

Of his opponents: Leviathan was a massive eye catcher last time out at Uttoxeter behind Ut Majeur Aulmes and Mystifiable. My hope with him, is that he won’t quite get home today…

The hope with Bobs World, is the complete opposite…

We were on him last time, when he finished like a train into fourth place over this course and distance. Hopefully he will do the same today…

Trucking Along is another danger – on ground he will love and with a decent amateur taking off 7lb. Hopefully his weight will still prove too much.

On balance then, not a race that I feel I can be overly confident about – but one in which I do think Hartside has a much better chance than the casual observer might think…

0.5pt win Hartside 11/1 (pre R4)

2:05

This could be last chance hotel for me with Loch Ba – and he’s not chosen the easiest of races to get himself back into my good books…

I was so taken with his performance when winning at Newbury back in January, that I’ve backed him on every one of his subsequent starts – and, to a greater or lesser degree, he has disappointed on each of them…

Sure, he ran quite well to be second on his seasonal debut at Bangor –and he didn’t run that badly in the Hennessey – but I really expected more of him.

I might actually have let him go untipped today – but the jockey booking really catches my eye…

Harry Bannister doesn’t get a lot of rides – but he is a more than capable jockey (as Fine Parchment will testify). It just strikes me that connections are really going for it today, by replacing Dominic Elsworth with him…

Maybe there is a reason for it that I’m not aware of – but if it is just to take 7lb off the horses back, they seem to be trying to extract every ounce out of the performance.

If you ignore the fact that Bannister is just a conditional jockey, the 7lb would put Loch Ba back onto the same rating that he won off at Newbury…

Furthermore todays soft ground shouldn’t be too dissimilar to the ground he encountered in January; whilst Newbury and Haydock are very similar tracks (big, flat and left handed).

Ofcourse, non of this means that Loch Ba will win today – but if he doesn’t I’ll be struggling to excuse his performance…

Let’s hope the old boy checks back in this afternoon – I hate it when my long time guests get forced to leave the establishment L

0.5pt win Loch Ba 9/1

3:15

I’d decided that this was the race that I was going to go for today – and so what happens, my main fancy for the race, Manballandall, is declared a non runner !

C’est la Vie – as our French cousins would say..!!

As a consequence, we are left with just a saver in the race – well, I guess this tactic has worked in the past…

Whether it will work today, is a different matter, but I do think that Matthew Riley has a chance – though there is quite a bit of speculation involved.

Today will only be his fifth run over hurdles – and his first at his kind of trip – so it is difficult to be confident about his chances…

However, he has already shown that he has a fair amount of ability – and I think there is every chance that he will relish stepping up in trip today. His seasonal debut over this course, should have blown away the cobwebs and with that under his belt, I figure he might be capable of putting in a performance that will surprise a few people …

For those of you who like a little less speculation (and even Manballandall was speculative - just a bit less so than Matthew Riley), then I would recommend Cross Kennon…

I was half tempted by him last night – and it takes some imagination to see him out of the frame.

However, he is now a best price of 9/2, so you barely get your money back if he is placed – and I’ll be a little surprised if there isn’t something in the field capable of beating him…

Whether that will be Matthew Riley, is a different matter - but at the odds, I figured he was worth a small play…

0.25pt win Matthew Riley 14/1

In the 1:30 race, Tornado in Milan is turned out again just 3 days after falling at the first when we were on him…

There must be a fair chance that he will gain compensation today. The opposition doesn’t look strong – and the Haydock fences are quite forgiving.

However, there doesn’t look at lot of juice in a best quote of 3/1, on the back of a fall, so he can only be a mention…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 1:50 Gus Macrea 10/1

Asc 3:00 Houblon Des Obeaux 4/1

Asc 3:35 Willows Saviour 16/1

Hayd 12:00 Hartside 11/1 (pre R4)

Hayd 2:05 Loch Ba 9/1

Hayd 3:15 Matthew Riley 14/1

Mentions

Asc 12:45 Sybarite (S)

Asc 2:25 Reve De Sivola (O)

Hayd 1:30 Tornado in Milan (P)

Hayd 3:15 Cross Kennon (P)