Daily write-up - Dec 14th

It’s a busy afternoon (as you would expect !) with NH meetings at Cheltenham, Lingfield, Doncaster and Fairyhouse…

We have plenty of tips running to keep us entertained – and we could easily have had a few more…

I’ve been forced to ditch 2 of the tips I planned to issue this morning, because their prices had fallen to an unacceptably low level (I kept two of the others that had fallen).

I know this comes with the territory – and I know that some of you don’t like me going on about it – but it literally doubles my pre write-up workload…

I like to have a good idea of what I will be tipping before I go to bed.

Sleeping on things helps me consolidate my thoughts so that I can feel comfortable when I issue in the morning.

Ofcourse, if I wake up in the morning and the goal posts have moved to another pitch, then I have an issue !

That’s precisely what happened this morning – and as a consequence, I had to go back through all my notes and thoughts, and work things out again, with a new set of prices.

Like I say, it’s all very time consuming – and it also means I’m having to make decisions on which horses to tip, very quickly.

It’s no wonder I mess up the staking so often !

Anyway, I just thought I would share that with you – I don’t want you thinking I have an easy life here ;)

On to the rationale behind the days tips – with a few thoughts on some of the other races…

Cheltenham

2:25

As I inferred last night, the going is key to todays race…

If it had turned soft, the race would have had a completely different complex – but I believe it will be quick, so that is what I have based my tips/analysis on…

The first place to start when assessing the race, is obviously last months Paddy Power Gold cup…

That race was won by Johns Spirit with Colour Squadron second, Attaglance fourth and Easter Meteor a faller at the second last, when still in with every chance…

The revised weight suggest there shouldn’t be much between the first 3 – though Easter Meteor should struggle a little as his subsequent second placing means he meets Johns Spirit on only a pound better terms today.

To my eyes, Johns Spirit was a comfortable winner of the race that day – and the fact he only won by three quarters of a length, was down simply to the fact that he idled up the run in…

The move he made round the home turn, to get into contention, was devastating – and it suggested to me that he was comfortably the best horse in the race.

If Richie McLernon holds on to him a bit longer today (I could see him being delivered as they jump the last), then I think he will run out a more comfortable winner…

My main concern with Johns Spirit is the actual weight he has to carry…

11st9lb today compared to 10st2lb last time. However, he has won carrying 11st12lb in the past, so hopefully he will be up to the job…

The other one I want on side in the race, is Silver Roque…

He hasn’t been competing at such as exalted level – but is a horse of serious ability – given the right conditions…

Those conditions are 2m4f on decent ground – which is precisely what he gets today.

The ground was softer than ideal when he made his seasonal debut at Sedgefield, but he still won that race on the bridle…

I guess that an 11lb rise was inevitable – though it does seem a little harsh, bearing in mind it wasn’t an overly strong contest…

Still, it puts Silver Rqoue on a mark of 143, off which I think he can be competitive…

On softer ground, I could have been interested in Double Ross and Ma Filleule – but hopefully the rain will stay away and we can look out for those two later in the season…

0.5pt win Johns Spirit 6/1

0.25pt EW Silver Roque 22/1

1:15

This race looks hyper competitive – and I was intending to leave it alone – however, I think that Parsnip Pete looks a fair bit over-priced, at 14/1…

I guess he is such a big price because he hasn’t run particularly well the twice he has run over fences at Cheltenham.

However, I don’t think that either run was particularly bad – so I’m not choosing to place much importance on that.

Certainly last time out, he ran a cracker in a very hot 2 mile handicap at Newbury…

He jumped the final fence in the lead, but was run out of it close home by the unexposed Filbert.

Parsnip Pete got a 5lb rise for that run – but he is a progressive horse himself, so he may well be able to deal with that.

That run showed Parsnip Pete was in very good form and if he can build on it today, then I can see him going very close…

As I suggested, the dangers in the race are too numerous to mention – and quite literally, any result wouldn’t come as a big surprise…

The other one I was particularly interested in however, was Shooters Wood.

He looked very good last autumn, before his form tailed off. If Paul Nichols has managed to work the oracle with him over the summer, I could also see him running very well…

0.5pt win Parsnip Pete 14/1

There are very few other betting opportunities on the Cheltenham card…

I wouldn’t have a strong view on the opening juvenile hurdle – nor for that matter, on the novice chase that follows it…

I can fully understand why Kings Palace is such a short priced favourite in the 1:50 as he looked massively impressive when winning last time out.

However, I do just wonder if that victory flattered him a little.

I toyed briefly with the idea of taking him on – either with Milan Bound or Potters Cross. However, their prices are tight enough considering the risk involved…

I hope that The New One will be able to beat Zarkandar in the International hurdle – and I think he should be able to.

Whilst in the finale, French Champion hurdle winner Gemix could well end up a bit of value…

He is certainly one you want to be keeping an eye on as the markets develop, as I suspect he might be neglected in favour of his unexposed rivals.

If that is the case, he could end up a good bet (at 7/2 or bigger)

Doncaster

11:55

This is a very straightforward tip. Simply, I think Timesishard is too big a price at 25/1.

He was a fair novice hurdler last season – and made a reasonable debut this campaign in a very hot handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting…

On the back of that, he was sent off a 10/1 shot for a reasoanble hurdle race at Chepstow last Saturday.

However, he ran no sort of a race that day, trailing in a well beaten 11^th of 13…

My inclination is to just put a line through that run.

Back today, on quicker ground and in a smaller field, I hope he can prove that last time out run to be all wrong…

Todays race looks fair – but not outstanding – and I just don’t think that Timesishard should be the price he is….

0.25pt win Timesishard 25/1

3:15

It might seem a bit odd making a horse who has pulled up on 3 out of his last 5 outings, a decent sized tip – particularly at relatively short odds – but as I said yesterday, I can be creative when I’m picking my horses !!

With Harry the Viking, you have to be prepared to think outside the box – and read between the lines little…

Last season was clearly a write-off for him, but the season before last he was a seriously good novice chaser…

2 wins in novice chases at Doncaster, preceded a huge run behind Teaforthree in the National hunt chase at the Cheltenham festival.

On the back off that, Harry the Viking was sent off 6/1 favourite for the Scottish Grand National , when running off a mark of 143…

He gets to run today off a mark of 134 – so is clearly potentially well handicapped.
But more than that, 3 miles on decent ground at Doncaster, are his perfect conditions.

Todays opposition looks fair – but most of them are pretty exposed.

The exception is Bears Affair – but on the flip side, he still has to prove himself over fences…

To my mind, this is simply a bet on whether Paul Nichols can get Harry the Viking back to his best.

He’s had a breathing operation during the summer – and I reckon he will be primed to run for his life today.

If that is the case, I think he will take the world of beating…

0.75pt win Harry the Viking 5/1

I had got Warden Hill lined up as our big bet for today…

9/2 with Paddy Power on the opening show last night, looked amazing value – and I would have been quite prepared to tip him down to 3/1…

However I feel that 2/1 is a step too far…

Granted, one of his main opponents has been taken out of the race – but he still faces 3 other credible rivals…

I would make him favourite – and in truth, 2/1 is probably a fair price. But it is no more than that and as a consequence he can’t be a tip…

Lingfield

12:50

The heavy ground at Lingfield this afternoon, is unlikely to be to everyones liking – but one horse who I think will relish it, is Mentalist…

He is a huge horse – particularly as he is only 5 years old – and he ploughed through similarly heavy ground to win at Southwell on his final outing of last season.

That was his second win of the campaign, following an earlier victory in the soft at Ludlow.

However, Mentalist was always a horse that was going to improve with age.

He disappointed on his seasonal debut at Kempton 3 weeks ago – but that was on unsuitably quick ground. He is likely to have derived a lot of benefit from that run however and I think he will show his true worth in todays more suitable conditions…

In truth, this race looks his to win.

The favourite is top weight Henry King – and whilst he did run a cracker on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter, I just have to wonder how well suited he is going to be, carrying top weight in the mud today…

Most of the others either don’t look good enough – or have serious question marks against them and simply, if Mentalsit is the horse I think he is, then he should win this…

0.5pt win Mentalist 6/1

It wouldn’t surprise me at all, if Venetia were to follow up in the next race, in the shape of Smart Money…

It was only freshness that beat him last time, over course and distance – and assuming the fizz has now been taken out of him he should take all of the beating today.

I did consider tipping him, however, he is only a 2/1 shot – and he faces at least a couple of dangerous looking rivals in the form of Swampfire and Even if.

Like I say, he could well win – but you need also need a bit of value – and there isn’t a lot of that in the current price…

In addition to Warden Hill, the other one I dropped from my list of possible tips this morning, was Ultragold…

He’s a horse I’ve had my eye on since he debuted in this country, 3 runs ago.

He ran a fair race at Cheltenham that day and has built on that every run since…

He would have been a tip at 5/1 or more – but I couldn’t beat 4/1 this morning, which seems about right…

The trouble is, he’s running in quite a competitive race. I’ll take a short price if I don’t rate the opposition, but when I can see a few dangers, it becomes harder to accept reduced odds.

Once again, Ultragold could win – but on balance, I think we have to take a watching brief, at the price…

Fairyhouse

After waiting for the prices, Pencilhimin has now been declared a non runner !
Well at least I hadn’t produced the rationale for tipping him ;)

There was nothing else on the Fairyhouse card that particularly caught my eye – so it’s going to be a quiet day in Ireland…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Chelt 1:15 Parsnip Pete 14/1

Chelt 2:25 Johns Spirit 6/1

Chelt 2:25 Silver Roque 22/1

Donc 11:55 Timesishard 25/1

Donc 3:15 Harry the Viking 5/1

Ling 12:50 Mentalist 6/1

Mentions

Chelt 3:35 Gemix (P)

Donc 12:25 Warden Hill (P) 

Ling 1:25 Smart Money (P)

Ling 3:05 Ultragold (P)