Daily write-up - Dec 10th

There are 2 NH meetings today, at Uttoxeter and Fontwell…

Neither are too bad for a Tuesday afternoon in the middle of December, and whilst it was initially the Fontwell card that attracted me, I’ve ended up tipping in a couple of races at Uttoxeter (I remain keen to tip the right horses, rather than ones who are the right ‘shape’ !).

A final ‘thank you’, to all of you who have completed and returned the survey.
As I said before, there were some really good ideas/suggestions  - and the advanced tip notification message is a direct result of the survey.

Bearing in mind I aim to produce a relatively personal service, I’m always keen to hear from you, so I can develop a better understanding of your backgrounds, preferences etc.

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tips along with a few thoughts on some of the days other races…

Uttoxeter

1:20

I’m pretty keen on Mystifiable in this – just a bit less keen on his price…

He was a 15/2 shot on the opening show last night – but a tight 5/1 shot when I issued this morning. I still think there is some value in that price – but obviously not quite as much as I would have liked…

Mystifiable is making his handicap debut today, after 3 runs in novice hurdle events – and it is his last run, in particular, that makes him very interesting today…

That run was at Warwick last month and Mystifiable finished third behind a couple of potential top notch novices in the shape of Garde La Victoire and Gone too Far.

Just behind Mystifiable in fourth place that day, was Benefique Royal. That one went on and won a competitive handicap hurdle on Saturday off a mark of 104, suggesting that Mystifiable is well treated off a mark of 110.

It was also a long way back to the fifth horse, confirming the impression that the first 4 home were pretty smart…

That improvement in form for Mystifiable coincided with a change in tactics. Previously held up, he made the running that day, in the process, showing tactical versatility, which should serve him well.

In fairness to Mystifiable, he had shown fair form on his 2 previous hurdles runs, so the case for him isn’t built solely around the Warwick run…

I can understand the support for Vujiyama. He has a similar profile to Mystifiable, but his form doesn’t look as good.

Of the others, I was half tempted by Deia Sunrise, who is a fair sort on the level.

He was unlucky not to win at Ludlow last season, as he fell at the last when looking likely to collect.

My biggest issue with him is that he hasn’t run for 6 months and tends to be a bit keen anyway. I can see him leading for a good deal of the race – but suspect he will fade close home (hopefully !).

0.5pt win Mystifiable 5/1

2:50

This strikes me as a fascinating race, as although there are a lot of runners, I think the field can be comfortably whittled down to 7 or 8 with a chance…

Furthermore, some of those with chances are at pretty decent odds, which is why I decided to split stakes across 3 of them, rather than plump for a single shorter priced runner…

The first horse to catch my eye in the race, was Possibly Flora…

She will be making her chasing debut under rules today, but is a fine big mare and I have little doubt she will adapt well to fences (she has run once in a PTP, finishing fourth).

Last time out, she made her handicap debut over hurdles at Towcester and was still in the lead and going OK, when she over jumped the fourth last hurdle and crumpled on landing.

She made a nice shape over the hurdles that day, strongly suggesting that she would be effective over fences. Her keen positive style of racing should also be an asset in a big field of novices chasers…

Having selected her, I noticed that her trainer, Richard Woollacott, had another runner in the race, Gospel Preacher.

On examining his form, he also looked an interesting contender – though he has now been declared a non runner, so we will have to wait until another day for him…

The other one in the race that potentially interested me, was Hand on Bach…

I half fancied him for a race at Lingfield a month ago, won by Richmond.

That race was run on desperate ground and Hand on Bach just didn’t perform. I would be prepared to ignore that run, but what I found more difficult to ignore, was the run of Lord Kennedy who would have finished well in front of Hand on Bach that day and is 4lb better off at the weights today.
That run was also the seasonal debut of Lord Kennedy and he was extremely keen – so it takes some doing, to argue the case for Hand of Bach coming out best of the pair today…

Hand on Bach hasn’t run since Lingfield – but Lord Kennedy has, in the race that Pod contested at Towcester…

Lord Kennedy improved on his Lingfield run to finish fourth in that race – and with cheek pieces and a tongue tie applied today, I suspect he will really be going for it today !!

Of the others, Molko Jack and Mr Bachster have obviously claims - but neither set an insurmountable standard. Whilst Meirig’s Dream has to be of interest off mark of just 77…

However in terms of value, then I think that Possibly Flora and Lord Kennedy are good bets – and hopefully one of them will find the required improvement to come home in front this afternoon…

0.25pt win Possibly Flora 18/1

0.25pt win Lord Kennedy 20/1

In the second race on the card, I would expect African Gold to leave behind his relatively disappointing chasing debut and show himself to be a high class novice chaser.

He faces a couple of reasonable opponents today – but it he runs to the level of his hurdle form from last season, he should prove much too good for his rivals…

In the 1:50 race, I was most interested in Premier Portrait.

This will only be his third run under rules, so he should still have room for significant improvement.

However, it is quite a competitive race – and there isn’t much margin in his price.

In these situations I’m trying to resist tipping – and just offering mentions instead.

I really don’t think I have a great edge in races like this, so although some of my fancies will win, long term it’s not an area that we want to be operating in…

Fontwell

The 1:10 race is another trappy contest…

The two I was interested in were No Buts and Bucking the Trend – but at 5 or 6/1, there was no margin in a race where most of the field can be given at least half a chance…

Bucking the Trend is now drifting a little – and if he were to reach double figures, I might be interested.
However, when the tipping window was open, that wasn’t an option, so officially, he can only be a mention…

The 2:10 race is another very tight contest, with little margin in the prices…

I think the conditions (distance, track, ground) favour On Trend most.

I certainly think that he will be happier around Fontwell than he was last time at Cheltenham.

Furthermore, if Pete the Feat and Firm Order decide to battle each other for the lead, the race could pan out perfectly for him.
Despite all this, I didn’t find it too difficult to leave him alone at a best price of 4/1…

I found it more difficult to leave Midnight Charmer alone – even though he was only a 5/2 shot.

That is because the race he is running in looks very weak – and for the grade, his form looks pretty strong.

However, we are faced with that familiar problem of whether to back a horse at a short price in a low grade contest, knowing that one of the other runners could suddenly find significant improvement.

On balance, I decided to let him pass…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Uttx 1:20 Mystifiable 5/1

Uttx 2:50 Possibly Flora 18/1

Uttx 2:50 Lord Kennedy 20/1

Mentions

Uttx 1:50 Premier Portrait (P)

Font 1:10 Bucking the Trend (P)

Font 2:10 On Trend (O)

Font 3:10 Midnight Charmer (O)