Starting with the headline figures:
TVB tips
Total staked: 17.75pts
Total profit:
4.00pts
ROI 22%
*Adjusted figures
Total staked: 17.75pts
Total profit: 0.38pts
ROI 2%
*The adjusted figures assume that all bets are layed off at 2
IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether it wins the race.
February ended up a very similar month to January – only this
time with a slight profit (assuming you were able to get advised prices on all
of the selections - which wouldn’t have been a formality for at least a couple
of them !).
In a way, this was to be expected, as under foot conditions
remained desperate for most of the month.
There does at least now seem to be a light at the end of the
tunnel – and whilst only breaking even during the post Christmas period isn’t
great, I don’t think it’s too bad either (bearing in mind just how tough things
have been).
The total of 17.75pts staked during February was slightly lower
than January – though February is a slightly shorter month and I did take a few
days off.
The number of horses backed (42) and the number of races (40)
were very similar to January (and again significantly less than November and
December)
In terms of placings, then the 42 horses achieved the
following:
1st - 5
2nd - 2
3rd - 7
4th - 7
So bang on 50% of the tips finished in the first 4 – though only
16% finished first or second, which is lower than I would like.
In addition to the 5 winners, 2 other tips traded at 2 or less
in-running.
This suggests that once again, we weren’t particularly unlucky
during the month.
That said, as with January, there were a couple of horses that
traded very close to 2 in-running (Smoking Aces at 2.02 and Yellow Ball at
2.04).
I suspect that 12 months ago, both would have traded odds on
in-running – but like everything else, the in-running market continues to get
smarter (as only the best are able to survive).
If you do look to lay off in-running for a profit (or even to
recover stakes) it does emphasis the need for you to place your lays at least a
couple of ticks above 2…
Looking at things in a little
more detail, it is interesting that the month can almost be broken in half…
The first half was a real
struggle (a bit like January !) and if it hadn’t been for Dave finding Indian
Voyage for us, we would have been almost 10 points down by the middle of the
month - and in a bit of trouble…
On the flip side however, the
second half of the month went much better…
10pts profit on less than 8pts
staked, is back to the levels experienced in the pre-Christmas ‘golden
period’.
Obviously it might just be a
coincidence that this occurred as the weather started to relent a little – but
I’m hoping that’s not the case !
To reinforce this, it is notable
that the performance of the mentions also improved over this period – which
suggests to me that things are indeed getting back to normal, with form lines
etc. holding up.
Time will tell I guess…
Whatever, we enter the final
month of the TVB season is a pretty strong position.
The official P&L is just over
30pts up – and whilst most of you won’t have managed to quite achieve that
number on the official tips, I would be hopeful that your profits will have been
boosted from the mentions etc. in the daily write-up.
You should all have realised by
now, that this really is less a prescriptive service and more an advisory one
!
So, on to Cheltenham – and
Aintree beyond.
Just to confirm that I will be
running the service until the end of the Grand National meeting on April 5th
(no, please don’t thank me – I feel you all deserve it ;) ).
The extended ‘March’ is likely to
be the biggest month of the season for us by some margin.
Ante-post activity has been
limited – and with mixed success – but things will really start to take off
shortly…
I’ll look to start properly
building our Cheltenham portfolio as soon as the majority of bookmakers are
offering the NRNB concession – I would expect that to happen towards the middle
of this week.
We now have a sound base to build
from - let’s hope that March sees us really hitting the heights ! (no harm in
being positive hey !!)
TVB.
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