Daily write-up - Mar 17th

St Patricks day sees a couple of meetings taking place in the Emerald Isle: north of the border at Down Royal – and in the south, at Wexford.

In addition, there is a NH meeting at Southwell in the UK…

And so the final phase of the TVB season beings…

We have the warm-up period; the golden period; the wet period; Cheltenham – and now we are in the closing period (though there will also be an encore, at Aintree !)…

It’s amazing how things have changed as we have moved from phase to phase.

I feel as if I almost need to start afresh each time a new phase begins. The key variables – and consequently the horses I’m looking for – have been quite different in every phase.

Obviously, a lot of that is simply down to the weather.

The temperature is a lot warmer – and there is very little rain about.

The ground is therefore drying rapidly – and horses are beginning to get their summer coats.

As a consequence, I need to tread a little carefully  (again !)

This week was always going to be hugely different to last week – but it is also going to be very different to the 2 months which preceded that.

I don’t envisage a lot of action over the next fortnight – but I’m sure there will still be decent wagers to be struck – and I’ll be trying to find them.

With a bit of luck, there might be one (or even two) today – time will tell on that score…

Here’s the rationale…

Wexford

4:35

I’m sure that one or two of you half expected me to tip in this particular race – though you probably weren’t expecting me to tip the horse I have…

Instead, I would guess that you expected me to be tipping Foritsa – a horse that we all have close to our hearts, after a couple of fine wins for us earlier in the season.

And I have to admit that he did tempt me.

If there is a progressive horse in the filed (it is a chase restricted to veterans) then it is likely to be him – and with just 9st11lb on his back, less the 7lb claim of his jockey, he has got a featherweight today…

But that is because he is today taking on better quality rivals than he has done in his two previous races.

Ofcourse, as they are all veterans and it is therefore likely that most are in decline – but even so..

The other thing that put me off Foritsa today, is the fact that he’s not been seen for nearly 3 months..

It’s possibly connections have been waiting for better ground – but I don’t think that’s the case (he was declared to run at a meeting a few weeks back, which was abandoned because of water logging). My fear is that he will need the run today – and over a trip that I would think is his minimum and at 9/2, I just felt he couldn’t be a tip.

Instead, I’ve opted for the Robert Tyner trained Tullintain.

He was a very decent horse a couple of seasons ago, when his second in the Thystes to last weeks Gold Cup runner up, On His Own, was probably the pick of his form.

He ran that day off a mark of 123 – so off 114 today, he is potentially well handicapped.

Ofcouse, that was 2 year ago – and Tullintian is now an 11 year old, so he might not retain quite the same level of ability.

That said, he caught my eye on his most recent run at Navan, where he moved threateningly between the final two fences before weakening on the run in.

He might just have needed the run that day, as he’s not been out for 2 months – but the shorter trip today, will probably help him a little as well..

5 of todays field ran in that Navan race, with Duers come out best, in second place. However, I think Tullintian might be able to come out best of the group today.

The reapplication of blinkers, will also hopefully help sharpen him up  – whilst his trainer really couldn’t be in better form (5 of his last 13 runners have won).

He is no certainty, but I think he’s got a decent chance –and at 16/1 represents a bit of value.

0.25pt win Tullintain 16/1

Down Royal

2:45

This looks quite a competitive contest and it is possible to make a case for two or three.

However, the one that catches my eye, is the Karl Thornton trained Street Runner…

He is a relatively exposed animal – but he found his form in no uncertain terms, last autumn…

A gutsy win at Down Royal at the end of August, was followed by really good runs at Uttoxeter and Limerick, in September and October, respectively.

Whilst his initial win was off a mark of 88, his two subsequent runs were off marks of 104 and 97 – suggesting that he is quite capable of being competitive off todays mark of 98.

A second place on the polytrack at Wolverhampton, was followed by a disappointing run back at Down Royal.

Street Runner was then put away for the winter…

He reappeared 3 weeks ago, at Wolverhampton and ran really promisingly in a race that was presumably designed to blow away the cobwebs.

He was under pressure quite a way out that day, but stayed on pleasingly up the straight.

Street Runner is a horse who appears to have a preference for decent ground (which is presumably why he didn’t appear over the winter months) so hopefully the ground at Down Royal today will have dried out sufficiently to suit him.

The booking of 7lb claimer, Andrew Ring also catches my eye today.

He is normally used by the Philip Rothwell stable – and they have a runner in todays contest – so I find it intriguing that Ring is aboard Street Runner instead.

In summary, I think Street Runner should be ready to run a good race today, off a fair mark – and over course and distance, that will suit him well.

My slight fear is that we might be getting on him an outing too early today – but at 14/1, I’m prepared to take that risk…

0.25pt win Street Runner 14/1

Southwell

Carpincho was the one I liked most in the handicap chase at 2:35 - but his price of 7/4 is too short for me to consider getting involved…

He was a bit unlucky to bump into one last time out at Leicester – and gets to run off a mark 2lb lower today.
The application of a hood, suggests that connections really are trying everything they can to secure the victory.

My feeling is that he will be successful – but there isn’t a lot of margin in the price.

The other one that catches my eye on the card, is Hand on Bach in the handicap hurdle at 4:10…

He ran promisingly in a much better race at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance back in November.

He was then put over fences for a couple of runs – but didn’t really seem to take to the bigger obstacles.

He’s been off the track for 3 months now (presumably avoiding the bad ground) and returns today on a mark 11lb lower than his Ascot run.

He is risky – and he faces some interesting opponents – but I could see him going very well.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Wex 4:30 Tullintain 16/1

DR 2:45 Street Runner

Mentions

Sthw 2:35 Carpincho (P)

Sthw 4:10 Hand on Bach (S)