Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham Day 3)

Cheltenham day 3.

The half time interval has now passed.

Team TVB were subjected to a motivating talk in the dressing room.

They are playing well – but they need to be more clinical in front of goal.

They simply can’t afford to keep missing gilt edged chances…

The score line of 0-2 is not insurmountable – but it’s going to take great resolve to turn this one around…

They’re up for it – but the whole crowd needs to get behind them.

The referee blows his whistle…

And so part two of the Cheltenham adventure begins…

Apparently there has been some selective watering of the ground, overnight…

That’s a bit of a worry. Having got a decent feel for conditions, they have now changed (they would have changed a little anyway, as they race on the new course today and tomorrow).

Hopefully the difference will prove to be minimal…

6 more races today – non of them any easier to unravel than the 14 that have proceeded them.

I’m optimistic that we’ve got some good horses on side – some really good horses – but we’ll also need that elusive bit of luck (you always do).

Whether we get it is anyones guess.

I often get told that these things even themselves out – well that is nonsense !

Luck is a random thing – so it’s just as likely to even itself out as it is to repeat.

Still, that means we’ve got a 50:50 chance of being lucky.

Finger crossed J

1:30 JLT Novice Chase

This is a cracking race to get things under way and the key formline looks to me to be the one involving Oscar Whiskey, Wonderful Charm and Taquin Du Seuil.

There’s not a lot between the three of them, based on three races that have taken place over todays course and distance – but despite that, I have quite a strong feeling that Wonderful Charm will come out top of the trio…

I’m a huge fan of Oscar Whiskey – but hand on heart, I just don’t think his jumping will be good enough today. He’s got away with it so far this season – but under pressure in a bigger field, I think significant mistakes are likely to creep in…

Taquin Du Seuil is a sound enough jumper, I just think he is far more effective on really deep ground.

I would expect him to run a decent race – but I’ll be surprised if that sees him home in front.

Wonderful Charm on the other hand, has ticks in all of the boxes. He’s a very economical jumper, who will handle todays ground – and actually has the beating on the form book of Oscar Whiskey (and hence Taquin Du Seuil).

Admittedly it’s not by much, but as I think he will be best suited by today’s test, that is good enough for me.

What’s not so clear-cut is whether Wonderful Charm will be able to cope with the other 9 runners.

I doubt he will have an issue with many of them, but Felix Younger is one that you have to fear…

Depending on how you choose to read his form, he can be given a very good chance today.

Certainly his beating of Defy Logic and Trifolium, is top class novice chase form.

He’s been a bit disappointing the last twice however, and whilst that has been attributed to the ground, I think there is sufficient doubt to take him on today.

Furthermore, the official handicapper makes him 4lb inferior to Wonderful Charm – and as that one is also 2 years younger, he has the more compelling credentials.

Vukovar is the potential fly in the ointment. He was very impressive on his second run in this country (having disappointed on his first) – though he did only beat 3 rivals and the ground was riding soft.

He has limitless potential – but still quite a lot to prove…

The two that catch my eye at prices, are Uxizandre and Off The ground.

A really big run from either wouldn’t surprise me. However, I am put off the former by the fact that AP isn’t on board; and whilst the latter is progressive he will still need to have made huge progress from his last run, if he is to trouble Wonderful Charm and co. today…

Uxizandre may be worth a tiny EW saver – but not for official purposes…

0.75pt win Wonderful Charm 11/2

2:05 Pertemps final    

To my mind, this race revolves around how much ability Fingal Bay has retained…

He was a top class novice hurdler 2 seasons ago, when he won his first 4 races over obstacles – including a comfortable defeat of Simonsig.

On the strength of that he was made a short priced favourite for that seasons Neptune novice hurdle but he had to miss the race owing to a minor injury.

At that time, he was rated 153 over hurdles – with the scope to go to a much higher level (Simonsig reached a mark of 160 after wining the Neptune).

Its not all been plain sailing for Fingal Bay since that point however…

He was beaten in his final race that season – and then embarked on a chasing career, the following season.

However that didn’t go well – 3 runs yielded a hard fought victory; a defeat (admittedly to the high class Dynaste) and a ‘ran-out’ (when subsequently found to be injured).

As a result he had a lot to prove when he made his return to the track in a qualifier for this race at Exeter, last month.

And pleasingly, he didn’t disappoint, as he managed a workman like win from his stable mate, If in Doubt.

That one reopposes today – and on 2lb better turns, in theory has every chance of turning the tables (particularly as he appeared to be given quite a tender ride that day).

However, if Fingal Bay has returned to the peak of his powers (or even close) then I would expect him to leave the bare form of that win, far behind.

He gets to run off a mark of 148 today – but realistically, he could easily be a 160+ rated performer.

And if that is the case, he will win today. There might be some well handicapped horses in the field – but non of them receive more than a stone from Fingal Bay – and they are unlikely to have anywhere near his level of natural ability.

Of course, if Fingal Bay isn’t the horse he once was, then it becomes a far more open contest.

In that case, then If in Doubt, would certainly have a big chance - as too would Josies Orders (who like If in Doubt, is owned by J P Mcmanus).

It would also be possible to make a big case for Grand Vision. He was a very decent novice hurdler – and has also returned from a long absence this season to perform with credit.

Seafood is another one who interested me – whilst of the more exposed sorts, then I was most tempted by Crowning Jewel.

However, I couldn’t put forward a case for any of them, which would be anywhere near as compelling as the case for Fingal Bay.

I’m therefore just going to stick with him in the race – and hope that he has retained most of his old ability.

0.75pt win Fingal Bay 7/1

2:40 Ryanair Chase 

Based on known form – and official ratings – this look a 4 horse race…

And whilst it is possible to make half a case for a few of the other runners, I will be surprised if the race isn’t won by either Al Ferof, Dynaste, Benefficient or Menorah.
I’m actually really struggling to split the first 3 named – as they each have their own merits and short comings – but fortunately, as Menorah was available at more than twice their price when I tipped him, the choice of which one to support became quite straight forward…

If I’m honest, then I can understand why Menorah was the longest priced of the 4.

Whilst he might have the joint highest rating in the field, he has only run once this season – and that was when he was pulled up in the King George chase on Boxing/Stephens day.

However, he shouldn’t really have been running in that race. Captain Chris was supposed to be representing the trainer/owner but he was a late withdrawal and Menorah acted as a substitute.
However, the soft ground and 3 mile trip was never going to play to his strengths and it is no surprise that he was eventually pulled up.

Ofcourse, Philip Hobbs is going to have to work miracles with him if he is to win this grade 1 contest on the back of that run – but ‘miracles’ occur far more often in the world of horse racing these days, and I’ll be very surprised if Menorah isn’t primed to run for his life today.

Certainly if he is in the form he was in when he last ran over this course and distance back in April, then he will take some beating.

That day, he failed by under a length to give a stone to the high class Champion Court. That really is good form…

Of course, his 3 main rivals today are all capable of top class form themselves.

Dynaste possesses possibly the best piece of form in the race – his 4 and a half length second to Cue Card in this seasons Betfair chase.
However, he is held by Benefficient based on their running last March in the JLT novice chase. It would therefore always be a bit difficult to tip him at a short price…

Benefficient himself is a bit of mixed bag. Capable of top class performances he doesn’t totally convince that he’s from the top drawer.

He might be capable of winning today – though the absence of Brian Cooper in the saddle won’t aid his cause.

Finally of the big guns, there is Al Ferof. He’s not seen that often – but has put in some big runs when he has made it to the course.

Over todays trip however, I feel he would probably prefer a more testing surface. He will likely be running on up the hill – but there must be a chance that he will leave it too late…

Of the others, then Hidden Cyclone has been a big improver this season – but I still struggle to see him winning a grade 1 chase such as this; and whilst Boston Bob may well have been the moral winner of last seasons RSA chase that form doesn’t amount to a great deal, 12 months on.

You have to start getting really creative of you want to make a case for the others, and I don’t see a compelling need to do that…

In summary, a 4 horse race – with one of the main contenders available at 14/1, it was a bit of a no brainer really !!

0.5pt win Menorah 14/1

3:20 World Hurdle

This is possibly the most fascinating race of the entire week…

Can Big Bucks regain his crown - or will Annie Power show herself to be a super mare ?
Can At Fishers Cross recapture his brilliant novice form – or has AP not even got on the best JP McManus horse in the race  ?

Could the veteran Celestial Halo possibly go one better than last season – or will Rule The World further frank the form of The New One ?

I’ve got to be honest, there are just so many questions and imponderables, I find it nearly impossible to take a concrete view on the race.

Of course in a way, I no longer need to.

I tipped Zarkandar last week – and Reve De Sivola a few months back – and both are here on the day, and consequently have some kind of a chance.

Just how big a chance they have got, is open to debate.

Zarkandar is held on form by Annie Power – but he may well show significant improvement for the step up to 3 miles. It has certainly looked more and more, as if he would appreciate a trip – though whether that actually is the case, we will only find out when the race is run.

It’s now a little more tricky to articulate the case for Reve De Sivola, than it was when I tipped him in December.

Back then, there were doubts over the participation of Big Bucks and Annie Power; At Fisher Cross had disappointed – and Rule The World wasn’t really on the radar.

More than that, it was reasonable to expect todays ground to be at least soft – and Reve De Sivla was known to be targeting the race.

A lot of things can change in 3 months !

I guess he still has a chance of sorts – but it would be a bit surprising if he were to place - and a real shock if he were to win.

So what will win the race ?

With her 7lb mares allowance, then Annie Power is a worthy favourite. The trip is a question mark – but she has looked a strong stayer over shorter.

Big Bucks could bounce back – but as Hurricane Fly showed on Tuesday, eventually age catches up with them all.

I personally couldn’t have either of the JP horses – whilst I would also be a little surprised if Rule The World was good enough to win…

Which brings us back to Zarakandar - and Salubrious  - and even Reve De Sivola !

Like I say, an almost impossible riddle to resolve – but Zarkabndar is a fair bet at 14/1 – and Reve De Sivola still has a tiny squeak (particularly if the ground has been well watered !), so it may be worth those of you not already onboard, having a tiny play at the 40/1+ price available.

Mainly a race to enjoy though…

0.25pt win Zarkandar 14/1

0.5pt EW Reve De Sivola (ante-post)

  

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

As you would expect, the maximum 24 runners go to post for this and many can be given a chance.

However, I’m rather keen on the chances of the outsider, Bless the Wings…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Ascot, back in November. He travelled very sweetly that day, but just didn’t get home over the 3 mile trip.

Maybe that’s not too surprising, as all of his best form has been shown over half a mile shorter.

What is slightly more surprising is that connections continued to run him over the ‘wrong’ trip – and on the ‘wrong’ ground (he has a marked preference for good ground) on his next two outings.

Whether they genuinely believed he would improve for the extra distance – or if they were simply working on his handicap mark (by running him over an unsuitable trip) I don’t know.

In a way, it’s a no lose situation for them. He either improves for the trip – or his handicap mark drops. Win: win.

Anyway, the nett result of 3 runs over too long a trip, on ground that was too deep, is a 7lb reduction in his handicap mark.

And that’s very handy when you drop back to your optimum trip – and on your preferred ground…

Bless the Wings gets to run today off a mark 5lb lower than his last success (over 2m4f on decent ground at Newbury). He also has a previous course and distance win to his name.

When you add into the mix that he is from the Alan King stable, which has bounced back to form big time in the past few weeks; and is sporting blinkers for the first time today, I think you end up with a very good bet indeed !

Ofcourse it has to be kept in context – this is a very hot handicap.

He could easily run a cracker and still only finish sixth or seventh. However, all things being equal, I will be genuinely surprised (and disappointed ) if he doesn’t run a massive race today.

There are plenty of live dangers in the race, but one who I think has the potential to take this race apart – if on form – is Ballynagour…

He was one of the most impressive handicap winners of the entire season last year, when he came home an unchallenged 20 length winner on his British debut.
On the back of that run, he was made 7/2 favourite for this very race – but after travelling well to the top of the hill, he stopped to nothing in a matter of strides.

It was a similar story on his seasonal debut in the Paddy Power chase back in November, and maybe not too surprisingly, David Pipe reaches for a tongue tie today.

Whether that will have the desired effect, I’ve no idea. But if it does, he strikes me as the one horse in the field who could be pounds ahead of his current mark.

He’s a risky one – but he’s a dangerous one – and therefore an ideal saver.

You have to respect the chances of the top5 five in the handicap – plus Sraid Padraig. However they occupy the top slots in the betting – and I would struggle to choose between them.

If Ballynagour doesn’t storm home alone, it’s likely to be very much a case of who things drop right for on the day…

0.25pt EW Bless the Wings 33/1

0.25pt win Ballynagour 16/1

 4:40 Kim Muir Chase

Another monster field – and other relatively long priced horse that I’m quite keen on in the shape of veteran, Roberto Goldback…

Formerly in the care of Jessica Harrington, he moved into the care of Nicky Henderson relatively late in life (when he was 10).

However, the change of scenery saw him immediately bounce back to life and he hacked upon his debut for the stable, in the United House Gold cup at Ascot.

As a result of that win, his handicap mark rose to 162 – borderline Gold Cup class.

In truth, he was never quite that good – not even in his prime – but off a mark of just 144 today, the handicapper has given him a real chance.

He has gone down to that mark because of some disappointing runs. However, he is a horse with a significant preference for decent ground – so he was never likely to run to his best on the heavy winter ground.

On his seasonal debut this campaign, again in the United House Gold cup, he showed that most of the ability remains, with a fine 4^th behind Houblon Des Obeaux.

He runs off a mark 7lb lower today – and has top amateur Sam Whaley Cohen on board.

My one slight concern with him is a lack of convincing Cheltenham form on his CV. That said, he’s only tried twice before, so it’s still early days for him (even at 12 !)

The other horse I want on side, is the Willie Mullins trained Balnaslow…

I tipped him last time out, when he was a gallant fourth in the Thystes chase at Gowran Park.

Approaching the third last fence that day, he looked the most likely winner – but he just didn’t quite get home…

My hope is that it was the soft ground that stopped him – and so todays (hopefully !) quicker surface should be more to his liking.

Certainly, his trainer, Willie Mullins, doesn’t think he’ll have an issue with the trip, as his original target was the 4 mile race run on Tuesday.

Of the others in the race, then you would have to respect he chance of the two market leaders, Cause of Causes and Indian Castle; whilst of the outsiders, the ones that catch my eye are Pickamus, Night Alliance and Quinz.
However, on balance, I am happy enough to stick with the two – and the overriding hope that Sam will be able to bring home the bacon with Roberto !

0.25pt EW Roberto Goldback 20/1

0.25pt win Balnsalow 10/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.