Daily write-up - Mar 11th (Cheltenham Day 1)

The waiting is finally over – the meeting that the entire NH season revolves around has arrived – Cheltenham is here :)

And unbelievably, after months and months of rain, the first race this afternoon will be run on ground described as ‘good to soft - good in places’.

They are not kidding when they say that Cheltenham is a fast draining course !

Quick ground, big fields and ferocious competition mean that the test facing todays runners will be completely different to those faced over the past few months.

The form book won’t need to be thrown out of the window – but it will need to be read a measured fashion.

Form registered in small field, heavy ground slogs during January and February, will be rendered meaningless. Instead, we need to be looking for horses who will relish todays conditions…

Hopefully I’ve managed to find a few who will be able to perform at their best this afternoon.

Previous festival form is always a bonus – and a few of todays tips have that.

It’s going to be a tough 4 days: I’m sure we’ll have plenty of downs – but so long as we have a few ups as well, I’ll take my chances on the overall outcome.

Provided we get that bit of luck, then I honestly believe that we should have the ammunition to come out on top.

Let battle commence !

1:30 Supreme Novice hurdle

For the past month or so, the betting for this race has been dominated by unbeaten representatives from the hyper powerful yards of Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls.

Vautour and Irving are their respective charges and both sets of connections have been very bullish about their chances…

The form book backs them up – to a point – though there are also niggling concerns with both animals…

Vautour has looked impressive bossing small fields in heavy ground; whilst Irving has similarly faced only small fields (and right handed tracks) and been able to use a telling turn of foot to get him home in front.

The test for both horses will be very different today – and whilst they may be up to it – there are sufficient doubts to warrant taking them on, at the prices…

The problem is, with what…?!

If he had not disappointed last time out in the Tolworth hurdle, then The Liquidator could easily be vying for favouritism today…

He was sent off 11/8 fav for that grade 1 contest, but trailed home a well beaten fifth of six.

On the plus side, that run was too bad to be true – so can be probably be ignored; on the other hand, trainer David Pipe has apparently struggled to get the horse back to top form – so there remains a slight doubt about him today.

However, that is factored into the price – so I’m prepared to take the risk.

The Liquidator was a very good fourth in last seasons Champion bumper at this meeting – and also a clear cut winner of the supreme novice trial over this course and distance back in November.

He should therefore relish the conditions of todays race.

He is also relatively unexposed with only 8 runs under his belt (just 3 over hurdles) – so whilst he can already boast quite a high level of form, he also has a fair bit of scope for improvement.

It is difficult to nominate any other particular dangers in the race, as cases of sorts can be made for a dozen or so of the runners…

Of the less obvious ones, then I could see Wilde Blue Yonder running well (provided he manages to stand up !) and Valseur Lido is a big price, considering his connections and his form.

On balance however, I’m happy to just go with The Liquidator – in the hope that David Pipe has managed to nurse him back to top form.

0.25pt EW The Liquidator 25/1

2:00 Arkle Chase

In all probability, this race will be won by the horse that gets into the best jumping rhythm – the tricky bit is figuring out in advance, which one that will be…

Based on limited evidence, the suggestion is that Trifolium and Dodging Bullets have the best fencing techniques – though todays test will be quite different to anything either of them have faced so far this season…

Furthermore, there is a possibility that things will come together today for one of Champagne Fever, Rock on Ruby or Grandouet – and if so, their superior ability (as demonstrated over hurdles) might well see them to taking the prize.

Like I said, all quite tricky…

My initial feeling was that Trfiolium was the one to be with.

He was visually impressive in winning the Irish version of this race at Leopardstown at the end of January. However, with favourite Defy Logic, breaking a blood vessel – and second favourite, Felix Younger, unsuited by the heavy ground, you have to wonder how much winning the race actually took.

On his previous outing, Trifloium had finished second to Defy Logic, with Champagne Fever, who made a shocking blunder at the second last fence, back in third.

That maybe paints a fairer picture of Trifloiums level – and whilst it is good, it shouldn’t be insurmountable…

The same can be said of Dodging Bullets, who has improved markedly for fences this season – but still doesn’t boast the level of form that you would expect from an Arkle winner…

Whilst I would expect both of those to run their races – and quite possibly be placed, the winner is more to be one of the aforementioned triumvirate…

Champagne Fever is the current favourite – and whilst I respect his chances, I just don’t see him as a 2 mile chaser. There is a chance that he will be able to boss the race from the front – and if he gets into a rhythm, he will take some passing. However, he is unlikely to get an unharried lead and I wouldn’t feel as confident of his chances if he has to sit in behind.

Rock on Ruby was the best of these over hurdles – but he has only run twice over fences - and only faced 2 rivals ! He is woefully short of chasing experience for a race such as this – particularly as he is coming to chasing so late in the day (he is 9).

I would be fearful that when his jumping is put under pressure, it might be found out.

At the prices, I think it is worth taking a small chance of Grandouet.

Rated 166 over hurdles, only Rock on Ruby would be his superior in that sphere. He is however, a couple of years younger than Rock on Ruby – and has a little more chasing experience.

It’s true that his chasing experiences haven’t all been positive – however, he has improved with each outing.

He should be well suited by todays quicker ground and if he did manage to put everything together, there is little doubt that he has the natural ability to take a race of this stature.

0.25pt win Grandouet 12/1    

2:40 Festival Handicap chase

It almost goes without saying, but this is a very competitive contest ! There are 24 runners and it is difficult to rule out many with confidence.

The two I have taken against the field are Hadrian’s Approach and Tour Des Champs.

The former has a touch of class about him – but can be let down by his jumping.

He was just a 7/1 shot when third in the grade 1 RSA chase at last seasons festival.

He also finished second in the grade 1 Feltham chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting. A horse capable of placing in those kind of races should really be capable of defying a mark of 146 in a handicap.

And Hadrian’s Approach probably could do – if he could sort out his jumping…

He has so far run 3 times this season and on the first 2 occasions, jumping errors cost him dearly.

On the first occasion they caused him to get pipped in a handicap at Kempton; whilst on the second occasion he unseated his rider early in the Hennessey at Newbury.

Fortunately on his third outing of the campaign, his jumping held up and he was able to beat 3 rivals at Newbury.

Hopefully that win will have helped his confidence – because there is little doubt that he has the natural ability - and the guts - to win a race such as today off his current mark.

Tour Des Champs is a different kettle of fish…

He’s got no pretensions to be a grade 1 horse – but he’s a decent, young handicapper, who looks attractively weighted…

A bit like Hadrian’s Approach, he’s had issues with his jumping and these have prevented him from fulfilling his potential.

However, they haven’t been so evident this season – and as a consequence, he’s run some good races…

First time out, he finished a highly creditable runner up behind the ultra consistent Balthazar King, over today course and distance, off a mark of 133.

He followed than run up with a couple of slightly below par efforts – but both were over longer trips…

His most recent run was back over 3 miles in the Betbright chase at Kempton, where he led the field a merry dance until getting collared in the home stright.

The first time visor seemed to light him up slightly too much that day, so it will be interesting to see what effect it has today.

Certainly off a mark of 129 (4lb lower than when he ran behind Balthazar King) he is handicapped to go very close today if everything does click…

Of the others in the race, then I would fear the novices Green Flag and King Massini most – though victory for any one of a dozen wouldn’t come as a massive surprise…

0.5pt win Hadrian’s Approach 10/1

0.25pt EW Tour Des Champs 25/1

3:20 Champion Hurdle

I’m sure that most of you have already read my preview for the Champion hurdle, so I won’t bore you by again going through the case for each of the main contenders…

Suffice to say, it looks like a 4 and a half horse race to me (I would give Jezki half a chance !) – which the bookmakers now have priced up very accurately…

Of the 4 main protagonists, then I would first dismiss Our Connor – primarily because of his age – but also because the form book says he will struggle to beat Hurricane Fly…

Hurricane Fly would be the next to go. He’s been a fine champion – but non of them go on forever and I just think that this might be a race too many…

That leaves me with The New One and My Tent or Yours – so it’s quite handy they met at Kempton, over the Christmas period…

MTOY came out on top that day, but mainly because The New One ploughed through the final hurdle.

Also MTOY should have been better suited to the test that day – and yet only won by half a length.

Todays track will suit The New One better – as will the fact that he won’t have to make his own pace.

Ofcourse that is primarily because Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented as a pacemaker for MTOY. That in itself adds a new dimension to the race, as tactics could become very important.

In that scenario, jockeyship is key – and the fact that MTOY is ridden by AP and Hurricane Fly by Ruby Walsh, means that this could be a very big day for the Sam Twiston Davies – the jockey of The New One.

However, he himself, is a blossoming young talent – and he will have a partner who has all the attributes you look for in a top class hurdler.

I’m very optimistic that Sam will be up to the task – and that The New One will end the day as The Best One !!

0.75pt win The New One 3/1

4:00 Mares Hurdle

There is a real chance that racing history will be made in this race today…

No horse has ever won 6 races at the Cheltenham festival – but Quevega stands on the verge of achieving that today.

Granted her 5 previous wins have all been in this race – and it is hardly the most prestigious race run at the meeting – but all the same, 6 victories will be some feat.

And in all probability, she will achieve it. The bookmakers make her an odds on chance to do so – and few would argue with that stance.

True, she hasn’t set foot on a racecourse for almost a year but it’s been the same story on her last 3 visits and she’s proved more than up to the job…

On official ratings, she has 22lb in hand of the best of her rivals – and over a course and distance that she clearly relishes, she will take the world of beating…

However, she is now 10 years old – and whilst not quite a veteran, she is unlikely to be at her peak. Furthermore, even if she is victorious this afternoon, second and third place are still up for grabs…
And the race for the placings (assuming Quevega doesn’t blow out) looks very interesting indeed.

Cockney Sparrow and Highland Retreat are the next two highest rated horses in the line-up but todays test won’t be ideal for either one…

Cockney Sparrows best form has been over 2 miles and on flat courses; whilst Highland Retreat has taken her form to a new level since being given a 3 mile test in heavy ground…

The most likely runner up is therefore the French trained Sirene D’Ainay. She finished second in the race last season – having briefly looked like she might have stolen it. If she repeats that form today, she will likely be placed again.

However, her odds of 10/1 hold limited appeal, when you are looking mainly at the place portion of the bet.

Instead, I have opted for her country mate, Uddy at a far more attractive 100/1 !

She is 2 years younger than Sirene and whilst it is impossible to get a proper handle on her form, the fact that she has been running with credit in similar races to Sirene – and has been able to win a decent handicap at Auteuil (the premier NH track in France) suggest to me that she is worth a small risk at crazy odds..

It’s a little easier to justify in conventional terms, the second tip in the race, L’Unique…

She was a decent juvenile last season, when the highlight of her campaign was a victory in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Aintree Grand National meeting.

Great things were expected of her this season (on her seasonal debut, she was made favourite to give 8lb to Cockney Sparrow) but they haven’t materialised…

That said, most of Alan Kings horses were under a cloud in the early part of the season – so maybe her disappointment can be put down, in part, to that…

The other possibility is that she is a spring time horse. She was certainly at her best last spring – and with the warmer weather and quicker ground, now upon us, there must be a chance that she will bounce back to her best today.

Even if she does, then it’s unlikely she will be good enough to beat a peak form Quevega – but I would fancy her to handle the majority of her other rivals…

0.125pt EW Uddy 100/1

0.125pt EW L’Unique 33/1

4:40 National Hunt chase

By Cheltenham standards, this looks a weak race and I will be quite surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 3 in the betting: Shutthefrontdoor, Foxrock and Shotgun Paddy.

Ofcourse, which one will come out on top is a completely different matter – not helped by the fact that ground conditions are an unknown for both Foxrock and  Shotgun Paddy; whilst Shutthefrontdoot has to bounce back from a disappointing effort last timeout (he has subsequently undergone a breathing operation).

That said, the 3 of them do look in a different class to their rivals – and non of them will have an issue with the gruelling 4 mile trip.

Shotgun Paddy is officially the best horse in the race, with a handicap rating of 151.

He also has just about the best jockey in the race on top (in Derek O’Connor) and has already proved himself over a marathon trip (when winning the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out). The only question mark over him is the ground – but at the price available, that seems a risk worth taking…

Foxrock is a slightly different type, in that he’s been winning small field conditions chases in Ireland – but doing so by outstaying his rivals.

He has yet to race beyond 3 miles – but looks for all the world as if the step up in trip will yield significant improvement.

This race has been his main target for most of the season.

As with Shotgun Paddy, the ground is the biggest worry for him.

The profile of Shutthefrotndoor is similar to that of Foxrock. He too has been competing in small field chases – but staying on in a manner that suggests he will relish todays trip. If you ignore his last time out run, then he has to be given every chance.

Ultimately, this race came down to odds and percentages.

Shotgun Paddy and Foxrock were available at bigger prices than Shutthefrontdoor.

Consequently it was possible to back the two of them and get combined odds of just over 2/1.

I reckon the odds on one of the two winning, is nearer to even money – therefore it has to be considered a ‘value bet' ;)

0.5pt win Shotgun Paddy 11/2

0.5pt win Foxrock 5/1

5:15 Novice handicap chase

The second really competitive handicap chase of the afternoon and whilst this time there are only 20 runners, they are novices – so things aren’t really a lot easier..!

I’ve taken 3 against the field – and tipped them all win only.

I know that will seem a little strange to some of you, but simply, one mistake is likely to finish the chances of a runner in this race. If you back EW, that is two bets lost (the win part and the place part) – and although it can sometimes work in your favour (if one of the other runners makes a mistake) on balance, I would rather try and find the winner and hope that is gets round cleanly…

The first runner I want on side, is Pendra…

Trainer Charlie Longsden has made no secret of the fact that he thinks the horse is well handicapped and he has been protecting his mark for this race – in fact, he has made so much noise, it makes me a little suspicious !

That said, he is backed up by the form book – and I’ll be a little surprised if AP is on board a ‘dummy’…

Pendra was a beaten favourite at the festival last season, when unplaced in the Coral cup.

He turned his attentions to chasing this season and after a couple of facile victories, was well beaten his handicap debut at Ascot.

He clearly needs to run better than he did that day – but over todays longer trip and with that experience under his belt, I think he will.
Certainly he has got more potential than most in todays field – though I would like to see him backed pre-race…

The next one I’m interest in is Ataglance.

He won the Conditional hurdle at the festival 2 years ago off a mark of 139 – so off a mark of 137 today, he is potentially well handicapped.

Furthermore, he followed up that win, with a victory at Aintree and ended that campaign with a handicap mark of 155.

There is of course a world of difference between jumping hurdles and jumping fences and Ataglance has struggled with the bigger obstacles. However, he has gradually got the hang of things and ran his best race to date over fences, when fourth in the Paddy Power Gold cup, over todays course and distance back in November.

That was a hot race and the fact that Ataglance gets to run off the same mark today, makes him look very dangerous.

He has a marked preference for quick ground, so conditions have moved nicely in his favour and it also looks to me as if connections have targeted him at this race (with just one run over hurdles since December).
In short I think he has a decent chance.

Finally, I also want Manyriverstocross on side.

At 9 years old, it could be argued that he’s a little older than ideal for this race – but that is mainly because he has suffered injuries in the past, which have seen him absent from the track for significant periods of time.

When he has run, both in past seasons over hurdles – and this season over fences – he has shown form that suggests he is well handicapped today off a mark of 138.

Most notably, he has finished third off a mark of 135, in a Tote Gold Trophy and  a County Hurdle – these are two of the most competitive hurdle races run in any season..

He has also taken well to fences this season, demonstrating a decent fencing technique – and showing good form, most notably last time out, when running he 154 rated Oscar Whiskey close at Sandown.

I suspect that one day everything will drop right for him and he will win a decent race – and I think there is a chance that day could be today !

0.25pt win Pendra 8/1

0.25pt win Ataglance 16/1

0.25pt win Manyriverstocross 10/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.