Daily write-up - Mar 30th

And now, the end is near

And so I face the final curtain…

The day you have all dreaded, has arrived.

The final day of the TVB 2013-14 season.

Regrets, I’ve had a few

But then again, too few to mention…

Well, too few to mention here - but don’t worry, they’ll all be covered in detail in the end of season report ;)

The final day of the TVB season sees NH racing at Ascot and Limerick.

There are 3 tips from Ascot – and from Limerick, a limerick ;)

There once was a guy, TVB,

Who picked winners for fun, believe me,

Season after season,

He found them with reason,

And filled all his followers with glee !

Yes, it really does feel like the last day of school (for those of you young enough to remember !)

I’ve even tipped a horse at 13/2, that was available at 16/1 last night – I really must be losing the plot !

Or I am…

Time alone will tell…

Here’s the rationale:

Ascot

3:35

When looking for winners on todays Ascot card, I was keen to avoid horses who have been running through the winter on bad ground.

The going at Ascot today will be quicker than anything experienced since the autumn and so will provide a completely different test.

Also, many of the horses that have been on the go through the deep winter months are likely to be ready for their summer break – I can see today as being a day too many for quite few…

I’m also reasonably keen to avoid horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival.

It was only a couple of weeks ago – and it’s likely the horses that ran there gave their all.

Many of them won’t be ready to return to the track just yet…

Oyster Shell is a horse who was put away over the winter months, reappearing just 10 days ago at Ludlow.

He ran a big race in a decent contest that day, just failing to hold off the in-form Sonofagun.

Oyster Shell has gone up 2lbs for that run – but he strikes me as quite a progressive sort.

He has only run 3 times over fences and has shown improved form on each outing. Prior to his recent comeback run, he had outpointed Daymar Bay in November, and that now looks decent form.

Most of Oyster Shells best form is at Ludlow – which is a tight right handed track, not too dissimilar to Ascot.

The big thing with him however seems to be the decent ground – and he will certainly get that today.

It’s a tough looking race – but I feel that Oyster Shell will be at his peak today and will have perfect conditions – and that can’t be said of many of his rivals.

0.5pt win Oyster Shell 10/1

4:10

As far as early price ricks go, then the 16/1 that Junior was installed at on first show last night, must go down as one of the most significant of the season…

I do sometimes have sympathy with the guys who have to create the early tissues – as it can’t be easy. Often they have to price up fields containing unexposed horses that could have been hiding their true ability.

But not in this case…

The race is composed of veteran chasers – every one, totally exposed. It should have been possible to price up the race very accurately.

Yet when I looked at he early prices, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. The market quite literally looked up side down, compared to what I expected.

Just how Well Refreshed, a mud lark, with jumping issues, who needs a galloping track, could be put in at half the price of Junior, was simply beyond me…

Anyway, needless to say, the prices were pretty much sorted out by this morning – which is a shame, but not unexpected…

And even at less than half the original price, I still think that Junior represents a bit of value…

That is because I really can’t see 5 or 6 of the field winning – and I think he has the best chance of the remainder…

Just under 12 months ago, Junior failed by 4 and a half lengths to give subsequent Hennessey winner Triolo D’Alene 17lb.

That was over 3 miles on good ground at Huntingdon.

If the two were to meet today, then Triolo D’Alene would have to give Junior 19lb – that’s a weight turnaround of 36lb !!

Ofcourse, Triolo D’Alene has improved since then – but I’m not sure that Junior has regressed that much.

In truth, it’s difficult to judge how much Junior has regressed by – but his run at Exeter in January, behind Pineau De Re, suggests that he hasn’t regressed as much as the drop in his handicap rating would suggest.

Furthermore, rather than running over unsuitable trips or on unsuitable ground, he today gets to run on decent ground at an appropriate trip.

Non of this means he is guaranteed to win – but it does mean that he’s a fair bet, even at 13/2 – and as for anyone lucky enough to get 16/1…  ;)

0.5pt win Junior 13/2

4:45

So the honour of being the final tip of the main TVB season goes to Champagne Rian…

And how appropriate that is: a young, inexperienced horse, with only 4 previous runs under rules. As you all know, he is just the sort of horse that the TVB service is based around – Not !!

That said, I refused to be pigeon holed with my selections. I treat every race – and every horse on its own merit – and I quite like what I see with Champagne Rian – even if what I see is quite limited…!

Following a single run in an Irish bumper, almost exactly 12 months ago, Champagne Rian transferred to the stable of Rebecca Curtis at the start of this season.

He showed a little promise on his hurdling debut, when runner up at Ffos Las in November, but built on that when third in a very hot race, at Chepstow in December.

That really was a hot novice event, with the winner Sausalito Sunrise and runner-up, Kris Spin, subsequently franking the form.

Kris Spin reopposes today and there should be little between he and Champagne Rian, strictly on the weights.
The fourth horse in the Chepstow maiden, was Bob Keown. Like Champagne Rian, he is trained by Rebecca Curtis and has recently won and finished runner up in a couple of fair races, thereby further franking the Chepstow form.

Champaign Rian has himself only run once since the Chepstow race, when disappointing badly at Haydock.

However, that race was run on desperate ground – and also at a time when the stable of Rebecca Curtis was badly out of form.

Her horses are in much better form now – and Champagne Rian should appreciate todays quicker ground a lot more as well.

Clearly there is a fair amount of guesswork involved in assessing him – but if his Chepstow run can be taken at face value, then with plenty of scope for improvement, he has to be of interest in todays contest.

0.25pt win Champagne Rian 14/1

The only other race of interest today, is the juvenile hurdle at 3:00…

The one that interests me most in that, is the Alan King trained Ronaldinho. He ran well behind Pearl Castle at Doncaster last time – and has blinkers applied for the first time today.

I would expect him to run well – but it is very difficult to get a proper handle on the opposition he faces this afternoon.

If he had been a decent price, I might still have taken a chance – but I felt that 13/2 made him a marginal call…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 3:35 Oyster Shell 10/1

Asc 4:10 Junior 13/2

Asc 4:45 Champagne Rian 14/1

Mentions

Asc 3:00 Ronaldinho (P)