Daily write-up - Mar 18th

There are a couple of reasonable NH meetings today, taking place Exeter and Wetherby…

This period of the season very much reminds me of the first few weeks of the season, back in the autumn (and indeed the pre-season before that).

You need to look for a particular type of horse, who is able (ideally has been saved) to run on the relatively quick ground.

As you know (!) I don’t like to dwell on the previous day when it comes to the daily write-ups (I like to get that completely out of my system in the days review !).

However, I do think there was a lesson to be learnt (re-learnt) from Foritsa yesterday…

OK, he’d not run for 3 months – but that meant he was fresh and ready to go on the decent ground.

Most of his opponents had been trudging around in the mud for the past 3 months – and it showed yesterday.

The only question really, was whether he was fit enough to do himself justice – and he was…

Maybe not surprisingly then, I’ve put us on 3 horses today, with similar profiles…

Divers ran on the first day of this year – but the other 2 haven’t seen the racecourse since mid December.

However, all 3 horses should love the relatively quick ground – and will be fresher than most of their rivals, at this point in the season…

Whether that will be sufficient to get them home in front, only time will tell – but I do like it when there is an underlying logic to the tips – and I feel that is the case today.

Here the more detailed rationale…

Exeter

4:10

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t really understand why Imperial Circus is favourite for this…

OK, he needs decent ground and he ran well last time out – but that was in a cross country chase, so its relevance to today, is limited.

In terms of pure handicapping, then I don’t see Imperial Circus as well weighted today.

He finished a long way behind Handy Andy earlier in the season – and wasn’t able to win off a mark 6lb lower than today, when he tried at the back end of last season (in conditions similar to todays).

At 9/2, he has to be opposed…

So too does his stable mate, Woodford County. He appears to want softer ground – and stable jockey Richard Johnson, has presumably chosen Imperial Circus ahead of him…

2 down then…

Of the others, then Goring One and On Trend are horses that I’m just not that keen on. Furthermore, I’ll be surprised if 3 miles on good ground is ideal for either of them.

Lamboro Lad doesn’t look particularly well handicapped; whilst it would take quite a leap of faith to side with the enigmatic Qianshan Leader (though he would be a danger if he put his best foot forward).
So, then there were 3…

The main bet in the race, is Aimigayle…

She has shown some very high class form in her time (including a second at the Cheltenham festival in 2011) but was off for 18 moths prior to her seasonal reappearance this campaign, at Southwell.

Obviously in need of that run, she did much better when wining a handicap hurdle at Plumpton on her following outing.

She was a little disappointing next time out – but then put in an absolute cracker, on her most recent run, at Cheltenham, back in December…

That was in a class 1 contest (today is a class 3 race) and she led the field into the straight, before tiring over the final two fences.

As she was carrying a little over weight that day, she gets to run off a mark 5lb lower today – and also 8lb lower than her last success and the mark form which she ran so well at the Cheltenham festival.

In short, she is potentially well handicapped.

She will also love the ground and trip – the only slight concern is her fitness.

A bit like Foritsa yesterday, she comes from quite a small stable, so that has to be a niggling worry. However if she close to her peak today, then I think she will take a lot of beating…

If she isn’t then I think the one most likely to take advantage, is Max Bygraves…

He to hasn’t been seen since the Cheltenham December meeting – but that is not really an issue with him.

He rarely sets hoof on a course - so when he does, connections have to make sure he is ready to run for his life.
That was the case last time, when despite a 700+ day absence, he still managed to finish third in a very competitive chase.

He gets to run off a mark 2lb lower today – which is generous. And whilst todays trip of 3 miles is a theoretical question mark, I don’t think it will cause him an issue.

All things being equal, I’ll be very surprised if he is not there or thereabouts…

The only other one in the race that I could be interested, is Handy Andy.

I would have been quite prepared to dismiss him – however, I have just read (after I issued the tips !) that he has undergone a breathing operation since he last ran…

I tipped him that day and he was most disappointing.

However if the breathing op has sorted him out, then he could be a danger to all today.

Obviously I can’t do anything ‘officially’ about him now, but if I were you, I would cover my stakes on the other 2 with a small bet on him.

Let’s hope it is not needed though !

0.5pt win Aimigayle 7/1

0.25pt win Max Bygraves 5/1

Earlier on the card, I will be quite interested to see how Kings Apollo gets on in the 2:30 race, now that he’s back on better ground…

I was quite taken with him in the early part of the season, but he disappointed on his last two starts.

However, they coincided with the bad weather and soft ground – and maybe that just isn’t for him.
Certainly if he can recapture his form from November, he will take the beating…

Caulfield Venture looks nearly unbeatable in the 3:00 race.

Somehow, he was put in at 15/8 by B365 on the opening show last night – they now have him at 8/11 !

That might be a bit tight – but I think it is nearer the mark.

He was the very first tip issued by TVB – when he was a 66/1 shot in a novice chase at Stratford !

He did nothing that day – and has generally been disappointing since – but a switch to the yard of Emma Lavelle seems to have worked the oracle and he is now doing what I always thought him capable of…

I’d be tempted to make him a Top Pick – but his price could be silly.

I’d expect him to win mind…

Our old friend Freckle Face runs in a novice chase at 3:35 – and whilst his apparent chance at the weights seems limited, I’m not so sure…

He’s a horse on the up – and I don’t think he will have any issue with todays ground or trip.

I could see him settling in behind, jumping well – and if the jumping of his higher rated rivals isn’t up to scratch, I think he could surprise them.

You couldn’t beat 4/1 on him last night – which held limited appeal.

The best price now is 13/2 – and that is quite tempting…

Finally, Crookstown very much looks the one to beat in the 5:15 race.

He was a good winner of a decent novice handicap hurdle at Market Rasen 9 days ago and gets to run off the same mark again today (because that was a conditional jockeys race).

I suspect he can take advantage of that - and whilst 2/1 isn’t a huge price, it’s still a bit bigger than I expected.

Xaarcet is the other one I will be watching in the race.

However, he is blinkered fist time – and stepping up in trip – not a combination I like.

He has also shown a marked preference for heavy ground.

He is potential very well handicapped, which makes him dangerous – but I can’t really recommend backing him.

With him out of the way, victory for Crookstown looks even more likely – a Top Pick then !

Wetherby

4:20

Formerly a high class handicap chaser for Ferdy Murphy, the fortunes of Divers have been in decline for a couple of years…

He won the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival of 2011, off a mark of 132 and he followed that up with a third in the following seasons Paddy Power Gold cup off a mark of 144 – and a fourth in the Bryne Group plate of a mark of 142…

That he gets to run today off a mark of just 118, shows how far he has fallen in 2 years – but it also shows potentially how well handicapped he is…

The question is whether he can recapture his form today..?

Obviously it is impossible to be categoric about that until after the event – but I do think there are reasons for thinking he can.

Firstly, he transferred into the care of Donald McCain for the start of this season and has only run 3 times for the stable.

He showed little on the first of those occasions, on unsuitably soft ground at Sedgefield – but has run with much more promise on his 2 other starts…

Both of those were at Musselburgh – and on slightly better ground – and in both cases, Divers briefly threatened to get involved in the finish before his effort petered out.

He has been dropped 5lb as a result of those 2 runs – and today should get genuinely decent ground.

The booking of a 7lb claimer looks very interesting to me as that effectively takes his mark to 111.

He is still only 10 years old – so there really should be no reason why he can’t win off such a lowly mark.

The one slight doubt (as with Amigayle) is his fitness…

He’s been off the track for nearly 3 months – and today could be about sharpening him up.

I’ll be absolutely amazed however if Donald McCain doesn’t manage to get a win from the horse at some point this season – and with the option to switch him back to fences off a relatively low mark, I am hopeful that the first of those wins will come today…

0.5pt win Divers 13/2

We were on Hotgrove Boy when he disappointed on his penultimate outing at Ayr.
However, the soft ground was put forward as a reason for that defeat and he made amends in no uncertain terms at Sedgefield last week.

He only picks up a 7lb penalty for that win and will therefore take some beating today – but odds of even money look pretty tight.

It is difficult to be confident about anything in the race, but Have you had Yours looks a more interesting proposition at 8/1, to bounce back from a disappoint run last time out.

Finally, the chase at 4:55 looks a very trappy affair…

Everaard was the one that interested me most but I couldn’t quite take the plunge at 5/1.
I see that he is now as low as 2/1 in a place – which is frankly ridiculous !

He could easily win - but then any result wouldn’t massively surprise me.

At the prices currently available, Allanard at 12/1 looks the most interesting option – though he is not the most consistent of animals !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 4:10 Aimigayle 7/1

Exe 4:10 Max Bygraves 5/1

Weth 4:20 Divers 13/2

Mentions

Exe 2:30 Kings Apollo (C)

Exe 3:35 Freckle Face (C)

Exe 4:10 Handy Andy (O)

Weth 2:40 Have you had yours (S)

Weth 4:55 Allanard (S)

Top Picks

Exe 5:15 Crookstown