Daily write-up - Mar 19th

Just the two NH meetings again today, at Haydock and Warwick – but they are both interesting enough, for a mid week…

I ended up tipping in 3 races today – with a few relatively long priced horses…

My expectation first thing, was that the 3 I issued early would be backed - so I needed to get them out quite quickly. I actually expect the fourth (Free World) to drift – but that didn’t really happen.

Still, I think 14/1 is a fair enough price – so hopefully you were all able to secure that…

Noting much else to report on the day – so on to the rationale for the tips and a few other thoughts…

Warwick

4:30

This mares race contains quite a few familiar faces…

Iron Butterfly and Queen Spud are both horses that I’ve tipped this season – and I tipped Lady Kathleen numerous times last season.

However it was another runner in the race that really caught my eye…

I’m going to struggle to justify tipping Dancingtilmidnight in conventional terms as I have tipped her based on feelings as much as the form book.

In fairness, she has only run under rules 4 times – and her form isn’t that bad.

A couple of wins in average events early last season, were followed up by a fourth placing in a listed novice hurdle at Haydock last December.

Those runs make her look fairly handicapped on a mark of 114 – but not much more than that.
However it was what happened on her belated seasonal debut this campaign, that really caught my attention.

Despite being off the course for 14 months – and running on what was likely to be unsuitably soft ground, Dancingtilmidnight was absolutely hammered in the betting - eventually going off 13/8 favourite in a competitive looking 10 runner handicap.

She travelled well enough in that race – but ultimately, the soft ground, the 3 mile trip – or a lack of race sharpness caught her out – and she was pulled up before the second last.

The weight of money behind her that day - and the positive comments made about her both before and after the race, by her trainer Harry Fry, led me to think that she had to be worth another chance.

Fry is not one to shout about the chances of his horses without good reason – and the fact he has a number of other decent mares in his stable lead me to believe that he knows Dancingtilmidngiht is a lot better than her current mark.

Ofcourse, she could be the sort who just show it on the gallops and not on the course – but her first 3 runs last season didn’t suggest that was the case.

She is certainly a risky one – and not one with the profile I generally go for – but I think she is worth taking a chance on today, at a decent price.

If she does blow out, then I’m hoping that Lady Kathleen might be the one to take advantage.

I think that todays 2m4f on decent ground are exactly what she needs - and she has dropped a few pounds in the handicap, which should also help her.

The sharp Warwick track should be right up her street – and she has run well in the past after an absence, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

In short, she ticks quite a lot of boxes – and against opposition which I feel I have a fair handle on – and at decent enough odds, I figured she warranted a saver…

0.5pt win Dancingtilmidnight 15/2

0.25pt win Lady Kathleen 14/1

5:00

This looks an open enough race – but I think it is worth chancing a small bet on Free World at a fair price…

We were on him on his penultimate run at Ludlow, where he ran well enough, but gave himself little chance by running too freely in the early stages of the race.

He was never going to get home in the heavy ground that day, yet still managed to finished a creditable fourth, behind a horse who ran tremendously well at last weeks Cheltenham festival.

He gets to run off a mark 4lb lower today, which will help – as will todays much quicker ground.
Free World has already proven him self well suited to the demands of the Warwick track – and it’s not difficlt to see why.

Warwick is quite a sharp track – and the fences quickly come up, one after another, on the back straight.

Touch wood, Free World is generally a free going, good jumper - so he should relish such a test.

A chance of sorts can be given to the majority of his rivals – with Alpancho probably the one that I am most fearful of.

He won a novice handicap chase over this course and distance on his seasonal debut back in November, and whilst he’s not been seen for 3 months, he proved that day, that he can go well when fresh.

Top weight Speed Master, is also potentially interesting a first time visor – though he would need to bounce back to form.

0.25pt win Free World 16/1

Haydock

2:40

The Knoxs is another horse that we have already been on this season  – and who I think it is worth giving another chance to today…

Having shown definite signs of a revival earlier in the season, I thought The Knoxs was well worth a speculative play at huge odds in a big handicap last time out.

He travelled well enough to a point in that race – but the 3 mile trip on heavy ground, found him out and he was eventually pulled up…

That was the last race he ran for the Sue Smith stable and he is now with the stable of Sandy Thompson, in the borders.

That in itself makes The Knoxs quite interesting  - because the old characters like him, quite often spark back in to life given a change of scene.

And there is no doubt, that if The Knoxs was able to put forward anything like his best foot today, then he would take a lot of beating.

Rated as high as 150 in his prime, he would be able to laugh at a mark of 122, if he retained just a fraction of his old ability.

And his runs this season, suggest he does. Furthermore, I think that todays test of 2m4f on decent ground is likely to suit him much better than the test he faced last time out.

Ofcourse there is the a chance that he will just bomb out (as most 25/1 shots do !) – and there is also the chance that one of two of the upwardly mobile sorts (such as Top Gamble or Cloudy Creeper) will just be too quick for him – but there is also the chance that he will rewind the clock and show that there is still enough left in the old legs to take a relatively lowly contest such as todays…

Let’s hope it’s the latter case !

0.25pt win The Knoxs 25/1

There are a few in with chances in the opener on the card.

Having worked my way through them, I thought that Presented looked the most likely winner (assuming he improves a bit for better ground0.

However, 7/2 is a tight enough price.

Carli King looks the one potentially over-priced, at 13/2 – but Blenheim Brook would probably laugh at them all, if he were able to recover his form.

On balance though, not a race that I have a particularly strong opinion on….

Bincombe looks a susceptible favourite to me in the 3:10 race…

I admit his credentials are quite solid – and I could well see him being placed - but I think he is beatable.

The form of Rocking Blues was boosted yesterday and he looks a fair bet at 11/2 – though I suspect that Clondaw Knight has sufficient natural ability to win this, if everything drops right for him…

There is another tight handicap at 3:40 – and one where I would struggle to offer anything with much confidence…

Back to the wall, I would go for Smart Ruler – who should like the quicker ground.

That said, Karazhan has the potential to be much better than his current mark – whilst, Aazif could be capable of producing something of a surprise, at quite a big price…

Finally, if I knew he was physically spot on, I would be very tempted by Rudemeister in the 4:10.

We were on him last time, when he disappointed at Musselburgh, following an early mistake.
The softer Haydock fences might help him today – but I really think it is a question of whether his breathing is right.

Of the others, then I could see Tiptoeaway running a fair race – if the market speaks in his favour….

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Warw 4:30 Dancingtilmidnight 15/2

Warw 4:30 Lady Kathleen 14/1

Warw 5:00 Free World 14/1

Hayd 2:40 The Knoxs 25/1

Mentions

Hayd 2:10 Carli King (O)

Hayd 3:10 Rocking Blues (O)

Hayd 3:40 Smart Ruler (O)

Hayd 4:10 Rudemeister (S)