Daily write-up - Mar 9th

3 meetings today, at Warwick and Market Rasen in the UK- plus Naas in Ireland…

First things first: apologies for messing you all around this morning. I’ve never before issued a ‘no tip’ message and followed it up with a tip ! – and I wouldn’t intend to do so again.

However, as you are aware, these are unusual times…

For the last week or so, I’ve not been focusing so much on the daily form because most of my energies have been put into trying to find winners for Cheltenham...

What I’ve done instead, is check out the horses that are sent to me each evening by my alert system.

If I feel they have a decent chance, they’ve become tips – if I don’t (or if the odds aren’t there), I’ve passed on them.

What I’ve not done, is spend time going through races trying to find tips…

Yesterday evening, my alerts delivered the names of 4 horses, which I duly checked out…

In truth, I think all 4 have decent chances today – but when I looked first thing this morning, non were at prices where I felt compelled to tip them.

I therefore issued the ’no tip’ message.

I then went through a couple of the days other races to see if I could find any mentions – and instead, I found a horse that I felt I had to tip !

I guess I could have made it a mention – but I do fancy it – and I was amazed by the price on offer (I expected it to be less than half the odds available).

Only time will tell whether I was right to act the way I did – but I can promise you I would have felt sick if I’d not tipped it and it had won - and non of you want me feeling that way on the eve of Cheltenham J

Here’s the rationale…

Market Rasen

4:10

12 months ago, the career of Invicta Lake seemed to have plateaued and he looked exposed as a 110 rated hurdler…

He ran numerous times when rated between 107 and 110 and ran to a consistent level on each occasion.

However, last autumn, connections applied cheek pieces to him and these seemed to spark significant improvement.

First time wearing them, he comfortably won a 17 runner handicap at Wincanton – and then followed up at Plumpton off a mark of 114.

He then stepped up, both in grade and distance, and ran really promisingly in a Pertemps qualifier at Newbury off a mark of 121.

Clearly ridden to get the trip that day, he was finishing best of all in a decent contest, suggesting that he was still improving…

Unfortunately for Invicta Lake, the bad weather then kicked in and whilst he ran with some credit on his next outing at Ascot, that was on soft ground and ultimately, he didn’t get home.

A couple of runs on the AW have kept things ticking over for the past few months so there should be no issue with this fitness today.

Just as importantly he is now back racing on his favoured good ground – and is running off a mark just 3lb higher than he won off at Plumpton (and 4lb lower than at Newbury).

I’m not sure what has prompted the handicapper to drop him so quickly – but I think he might regret doing so…

I see the booking of Daryl Jacob for a horse that needs to be ridden carefully as a good move - the fact it is Jacobs only ride of the day just heightens interest.

I did look through his rivals – and whilst I can make half cases for a few of them, non seem to have rock solid credentials.

That is why I was so surprised to see Invicta Lake at 14/1 – and why I simply had to take action and tip him…

0.5pt win Invicta Lake 14/1

In the previous race on the card, I was really interested in Riguez Dancer and he would also have been a tip, at the 8/1 of yesterday evening…

However, a bit like Arbeo yesterday, he’s another potentially very well handicapped horse that has been hammered in the early market.

There is no value in the current 4/1 about a horse that hasn’t won for nearly 2 years…

In fact, I might be more tempted to side with Highbury High who is now a 5/1 shot and will take a lot of beating, provided he jumps round cleanly…

The last race on the card sees The Wealerdealer take on Edmaaj.

I could have been interested in both horses – but not at the prices on offer.

We were on The Wealerdealer last time, when he ran out of gas at Wincanton. He has 3 furlongs less to cover today – and on quicker ground – I think he will take the beating.
However, Edmaaj could easily improve past him – and there are one or two other potentially dangerous ones lurking as well.

Even just a quick look at the race enabled me to establish that it was never going to be one to tip in…

Naas

There is a really nice card at Naas – and remarkably, a horse that I planned to tip at Cheltenham is running in the second race there…

I felt that Quickpick Vic had an EW chance in Tuesdays supreme novice (he was a 50/1 chance) – or Fridays County hurdle – so it’s interesting that connections have chosen to bypass the festival and run here instead…

Not surprisingly, he’s been made favourite - and whilst he faces a few unexposed rivals, I wouldn’t want to be taking him on.

It’s always difficult to quantify the opposition in a race like this – but I think they will have to be pretty good to get the better of him.

A best price of 2/1 is too short for me to tip him – but I can make him a Top Pick ;)

There is an interesting novice chase at 3:30 and whilst Bright New Dawn appears to be the one to beat, I would be prepared to take him on with Mullaghanoe River, at a price…

He finished behind Bright New Dawn at Leopardstown last time – but gets an 8lb pull in the weights today and more importantly, his stable are now showing signs of a return to form…

The big race of the day at Naas, is the Leinster National…

Los Amigos, who was runner up in the Thystes, looks the one to beat, but if I knew he was fit, I would be very tempted to take him on with Snooze…

This one showed some decent form last season when trained in France by Sue Branhall. He has since transferred into the care of John Cullen (who used to ride him) and is handicapped to go very close today.

However, there must be a doubt over his fitness as he’s not run for nearly 6 months and has needed a run to bring him on in the past.

I could see him running well – and I could very well want to be on him next time out – but I just wonder if he might need it today…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

.

Tips

MR 4:10 Invicta Lake 14/1

Mentions

MR 3:40 Riguez Dancer (P)

MR 3:40 Highbury High (C)

Naas 3:30 Mullaghanoe River (O)

Nass 5:00 Snooze (S)

Top Picks

Naas 3:00 Quickpick Vic