Daily write-up - Mar 1st

There are 4 meetings today: Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

As you would expect with Cheltenham on the horizon, it’s not the best Saturdays racing ever – but I was still relatively happy that I’d found a few, when I looked through the declarations yesterday afternoon…

I was still reasonably happy when the prices started going up yesterday evening – but as the evening progressed, my happiness diminished…

One by one, the prices on the horses I fancied evaporated.

It’s a familiar feeling of course and there’s very little that can be done about it – but it still dilutes the enthusiasm a little !

At least when Pricewise causes the price crash, we get a chance to revisit – but not with the rest of the races….

Therefore, we are left this morning, with fewer tips than I anticipated – but a few Top Picks as well !

I remain optimistic of a positive result on the day – just a little frustrated about what might have been…

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – and the Top Picks – and a few other thoughts…

Doncaster

3:30    

Three times already this season, we’ve been on a JP McManus owned horse that has come off worse in a close finish to a big handicap chase…

First it was Cause of Causes at Leopardstown over the Christmas period and since then Smoking Aces has twice hit the bar, with our financial backing…

I’m optimistic that Storm Survivor might be able to even things up a little this afternoon…

His win in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last June demonstrated his preference for good ground. He won that race well off a mark of 126, so from a pure handicapping perspective has to be considered reasonably treated off 129 today…

That was confirmed by his following run at Chepstow off a mark of 134, when he dead heated with Court by Surprise for third place behind Al Co.

He is 9lb better off with Court by Surprised today, which makes you wonder why that one is half his price today…

Three relatively unpromising runs have followed for Storm Survivor - but they have all been on less that ideal winter surfaces.

He gets to run on decent ground again today – and I suspect that will make a big difference.

He actually ran with some credit behind Golden Call last time out, a run that suggested he was being readied for todays contest…

Harry the Viking finished a couple of places and around 8 lengths in front of Storm Survivor that day and on 3lb worse terms you would expect him to confirm that form…

I’m not convinced he will – but I still feel he represents the biggest danger to Storm Survivor.
Harry the Vikings run that day represented a big return to form for a horse who had threatened to be quite useful.

However he was massively disappointing last season – and it was a similar story on his seasonal debut this campaign.

However the application of blinkers last time out seemed to cause him to buck up his ideas and if they work the oracle again today, then he clearly has a very big chance.

Ground, trip and course all suit him admirably, so he is worth having onside as a saver…

I’ll be looking for a big run from our ante post Grand National selection, Monbeg Dude (though hopefully not too big !); whilst I would also expect decent runs from recent course winners Night in Milan and  Golden Call…

0.5pt win Storm Survivor 12/1

0.25pt win Harry the Viking 8/1

I was very tempted to tip Prince of Dreams in the 2:55 race – and I can’t even say it was the price that stopped me…

He will get the decent ground he needs for the first time this season – and showed himself to be running back into form with a decent effort last time out…

The trouble is, he doesn’t look overly well handicapped. He looks reasonably handicapped – but no more than that.
Furthermore, he is facing a host of potentially decent rivals…

I would expect him to run well – and if I did tip EW, he would likely be an EW tip.

However, I don’t tend to tip EW because one mistake in a race and two bets are down the drain (and Prince of Dreams is liable to make the odd mistake !).

It’s not impossible that he will win – but I suspect that he might find one or two just a bit too well handicapped for him…

Newbury

1:30

Formerly trained by Evan Williams, Pilgreen made its debut for Robert Walford at Kempton 3 weeks ago…

That was after 3 years off the track, so it’s clear that the gelding has had some serious issues.

In the circumstances, he therefore ran a most creditable race at Kempton. Held up out the back, he made ground down the back straight before finding himself out-paced on the run to the second last.

He looked likely to back out of proceedings completely at that point – but instead ran on to finish a creditable fifth…

The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run – which is fair enough  - but the question is how has he come out of it..?

If it has brought him on, then I suspect he will run a very big race today.

A mark of 105 looks potentially lenient for a horse who showed a deal of ability in his younger days.

Furthermore, the opposition he faces today looks limited.

Red Devil Lads looks the most obvious one to beat – but there is a fair amount of guesswork involved in assessing him.

That’s obviously true of Pilgreen as well – but at least we are getting a fair price on him ;)

0.25pt win Pilgreen 11/1

3:15

This is a tight little handicap, but I expected Jumps Road to be a shorter price than he is…

We were on him last time out, when he ran down the field in the Betfair hurdle over course and distance.

There was little shame in finishing well beaten in that race – and Jumps Road has been dropped 4lb as a result of that run.

Whether that makes him look well handicapped, probably depends on how you chose to interpret the form of his earlier runs his season…

Prior to running in the Betfair hurdle, Jumps Road had fished placed in a couple of conditions races at Haydock and Cheltenham.

His 15 lengths third to Melodic Rendezvous and PTit Zig makes him look quite well treated off a mark of 131 today; whilst his 12 length third to The New One and Zarkandar makes him look thrown in off that mark !

Ofcourse both are dubious lines of form – but his previous win at Wincanton suggests 131 is fair…

I just think there is a chance that todays small field will suit him well – and his proven ability to operate on very heavy ground is also a big plus.

He might not have improved as much as some of his form suggests, but he night not need to have done in order to win today…

The market for todays race is made by the novice Tiqris and he certainly looks dangerous. However he is priced up accordingly – and simply, Jumps Road looks the better value option

0.5pt win Jumps Road 13/2

Based on most of his runs this season, Brackloon High is going to take the beating in the handicap hurdle at 2:05…

Certainly his last time out run over course and distance is strong form in the context of todays race and if he repeats that, I think he will win.

He has a tendency to run lazily – but a combination of re-applied cheek pieces and Dickie Johnson on top, should sort that out !

He was 5/2 this morning, which was too short. 7/2 now with a significant non runner, is a lot more attractive.

He is therefore a Top Pick.

Carruthers is another one who was too short this morning at 2/1, but who looks very backable now at 3/1…

I can’t see too many negatives with him at all – and I can’t see many creditable opponents either.

He is likely to go from Flag fall - and with Nico de Boinville on top, will take a world of catching.

Another Top Pick !

The Greatwood handicap chase at 3:50 looks a bit of a minefield…

I couldn’t back anything with confidence, but I will be cheering on Dashing George to follow up his last time out victory at Fakenham J

I wanted to put us on The Ould Lad in the novice handicap chase at 4:25 – but it would appear that everyone else wants to be on him as well !

In a way, that’s a bit surprising, as he is making his chasing debut today – but on the flip side, it is a path that Tom George takes with a few of his…

With him overbacked, I considered taking a small risk on Paddy the Stout.
The 16/1 with VC is quite acceptable – but that is a stand out price and the more generally available 12/1 doesn’t hold quite the same appeal.

If you can get 16/1, I would suggest 0.25pt win…

Kelso

3:40

The big hope for the day – even if the price is not where I wanted !!

Blueside Boy was a mention last time out, when he made his chasing debut at Carlisle…

I felt he looked potentially well handicapped that day – but was fearful that the 3mile+ trip on heavy ground, might prove his undoing…

Well, he travelled into that race like a dream – and 4 out, it looked simply a question of how far…

However, his stamina then seemed to fail him and he weakened from that point to ultimately finish well beaten…

The handicapper has taken that run at face value and reduced his mark by 5lb – which now makes him look potentially very well handicapped.

Further more, he gets to run over a trip half a mile shorter today – so as a consequence, he must take the world of beating…

The slight concern is the ground. It will be a fair bit quicker than is was at Carlisle  - and that coupled with the reduction in distance might result in it being a bit more of a speed test than is ideal.

That said, I do feel I am clutching at reasons for him to get beaten – because in all honesty, I think he will win !

You could therefore ask why I’ve only staked him at 0.5pt – and I’m not sure I would have a good answer !
I guess it comes down to the price. He opened at 7/1 last night – so 9/2 was disappointing. That said, he is a best 7/2 as I write this – and I could see him going off a fair bit shorter than that…

He’s a good bet !

0.5pt win Blueside Boy

Cleaver Cookie will clearly take a bit of beating in the previous race on the card, but he looks a bit short to me, at 6/4…

Mister Nibbles is potentially interesting and a fair price – but Fergall could be worth taking a risk on at a much bigger price…

He was a good winner for us earlier in the season and might be underestimated today on the back of a disappointing run last time, on unsuitably soft ground.

I could certainly see him bouncing back today and outrunning odds of 16/1…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Donc 3:30 Storm Survivor 12/1

Donc 3:30 Harry the Viking 8/1

Newb 1:30 Pilgreen 11/1

Newb 3:15 Jumps Road

Kelso 3:40 Blueside Boy 9/2

Mentions

Donc 2:55 Prince of Dreams (O)

Newb 4:25 Paddy the Stout (P)

Kelso 3:05 Fergall (P)

Top Picks

Newb 2:05 Brackloon High

Newb 2:40 Carruthers