Cheltenham - final round-up

Having taken yesterday to recover from the exertions of the week, I have now spent a little time looking in more detail at the numbers…

Across the 4 days, a total of 16.88pts were staked on 46 selections in the 27 races.

Assuming best generally available prices were secured (with BOG) then a profit of 2.68pts (16% ROI) would have been achieved.

If you opted to take BSP (win and place), then the profit figure would have been 2.96pts (17.5% ROI).

I would hope that these would be the minimum figures that people achieved, as they should have been beatable by shopping around, bookmaker concessions etc.

Clearly, 46 tips across 4 days is a huge number.

Ordinarily, I would expect to issue that kind of number in an entire month - but I think, when you are tipping over such a short period, you have to adopt a slightly different approach.

Simply the more tips you issue – the more you reduce the variability (caused by luck).

To an extent, I think the approached worked.

We got returns from 7 of the 27 races (3 winners, plus 4 places) – though the P&L was sitting at –9 before Fingal Bay triggered the comeback…

In terms of placings, the 46 tips managed to yield the following:

1^st – 3

2^nd – 3

3^rd – 9

4^th – 5

So, 20 of the 46 selections finished in the first 4 – which at Cheltenham, is a very good strike rate.

The quality of the tips is further supported if you look at how the horses faired in-running on Betfair.

Of the 46 tips, then 3 won; 3 others traded at 2 or less; and a further 8 traded at 3 or less.

So around 14 of the selections looked to have a very good chance of winning their respective race at some point (which is about how it felt).

Clearly, we didn’t have a lot of luck across the 4 days.

In addition to the 11 horses who got close to winning but didn’t (trading at 3 or less), there were also the incidents endured by The New One and Calipto – both of whom must have gone very close to winning, all things being equal.

To an extent, such things are part and parcel – but I do feel we didn’t quite get the rub of the green…

That said, if you can still come out of the week with a profit, then you must be doing something right J

Ofcourse, as I said on Friday, the festival wasn’t really about the numbers (they just add – or subtract! – a little from the pleasure).

It was the most amazing festival – one of the best I’ve ever witnessed (and I been watching for over 30 years now).

There was however, a price to pay: 4 equine fatalities and 3 serious jockey injuries is quite a cost for our entertainment.

We would all do well to remember that, the next time we moan about a poor ride or a rogue horse...

That said, without the risk you wouldn’t have the spectacle and drama – and without those it wouldn’t be Cheltenham.

As always, I am happy to receive any feedback you may have on the way I handled things over the 4 days.

Please bear I mind that I had to cover a lot of ground in a short period of time, so I’m aware that things weren’t totally perfect.

Still, that leaves we with something to work on for next time ;) 

Thanks again for your support.