Daily write-up - Mar 26th

Just the one NH meeting this afternoon – at Exeter…

And it’s not a bad meeting either – in fact, I could have issued a couple of tips !

I played it cautiously instead however, and stuck with the one – though the other would be quite a strong mention (at the price) and certainly worth a couple of quid EW.

More on that later…

I actually encountered quite a strange situation this morning…

As you know, it is quite common for the horses I fancy to get priced up acceptably the night before – and then be backed into unacceptable prices.

But generally, that all happens the night before…

Miss Saffron was put in at an acceptable price last night (16/1 generally, 18/1 in a place) and was still that price when I got up this morning.

Just before I issued the advance notice, she got cut to 12/1 in a couple of places, which made me a little suspicious…

By the time I was issued, at 8:30, she was in free fall !

Now I’ve no idea what triggered it.

It could be that people like me, were waiting to check that there had been no significant overnight rain (Miss Saffron needs it quick); or it could be that someone close to the horse knows that it is ready to run for its life this afternoon.

Let’s hope it’s the latter ;)

Whatever, I wouldn’t have been interested in her at the current 6/1 – though getting on a horse at double those odds, is obviously quite attractive.

Let’s hope she doesn’t let us down.

Here’s the rationale…

Exeter

3:40

It’s possible to make quite a strong case for Miss Saffron today – provided the ground is on the quick side and she is sufficiently fit to do herself justice…

As recently as last June, she bolted up in a class 3 handicap at Worcester, off a mark of  97 – she gets to run off a mark of 92 today…

She’s running off that mark today because she has generally been disappointing since, but if you look more closely at her form, you will see that there are good reasons why that has been…

Her 2 subsequent runs last season can be forgiven because she actually ran quite well in the first of them (off a mark of 106) – and the second was in a hunter chase over a trip of 3m4f. She would have been outclassed by a couple of her rivals that day – but didn’t stay the extreme distance either…

She has run 4 times since then – but 3 of those runs have been on unsuitably soft ground.

The only time she has encountered the quicker ground she needs, she finished a very encouraging third at Towcester, staying on well close home.

Those ‘disappointing’ run in soft ground have done wonders for her handicap mark – and would be hopeful that she can exploit that fact this afternoon…

A slight concern is that she’s not been seen since the middle of January – but if the early money is from the ‘right’ sources, then maybe that isn’t an issue after all.

I also like the booking of Paul Moloney.

As far as I can see, he’s never ridden for Susan Gardner before – and a bit like Paul Carberry on Sunday, he will be operating close to his minimum weight this afternoon…

I did say that I was going to be very selective with the tips this week – and despite only staking it at 0.25pt, that is exactly what I’ve been with Miss Saffron.

In terms of dangers, then I can see the cases for the top 2 in the betting – but they both come with risks and are plenty short enough…

The money for Miss Saffron has resulted in Susquehanna Rover drifting to an acceptable price – and those of you looking to secure your position, could do worse than a tiny saver on him.
Hopefully it won’t be needed tho ;)

0.25pt win Miss Saffron 14/1

I have to admit that I was surely tempted by Phoenix Flight in the 2:40 race…

The trouble is, with 19 runners, many of them unexposed, it does look a bit of a minefield…

He would have to be an EW selection – and even then I could see him running really well and only finishing fifth or sixth.
Still, at 40/1, he could well reward a small risk on ground that should suit him admirably.

He was only 25/1 when I issued the tips this morning, which made the temptation to put him up, significantly less.

Whether that was a good or bad thing, time alone will tell !

The market seems to have polarised in the 3:10 race – and as a result I can’t help but feel there is now a bit of value to be had with some of the outsiders…

The two I would be inclined to go with are Gores Island and Gorsky Island.

I think a chance of sort can be made for both – and dutched odds of 10/1 would hold some appeal…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 3:40 Miss Saffron 14/1

Mentions

Exe 2:40 Phoenix Flight (S)

Exe 3:10 Gores Island (O)

Exe 3:10 Gorsky Island (O)

Exe 3:40 Susquehana River (O)