Daily write-up - Mar 14th (Cheltenham Day 4)

The fourth and final day of the Cheltenham festival – with the challenge to build on the successes of yesterday…

Unfortunately, that’s going to be easier said than done !

There are 7 very tough races – and I can’t honestly say I feel confident about any of the selections.

That said, it’s rare you feel confident at Cheltenham: hopeful or optimistic, maybe – but not very often confident…

I‘ve worked my way through the races and am hopeful/optimistic that we might get a result or two – but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it is much more than that.

Still, as I’ve been saying all week, if I can find the horses with the ability to go close, then we are always in with a chance.

Let’s hope the final days offerings are able to end things on a high…

1:30 Triumph hurdle

This is a race about which, it is impossible to be dogmatic..

The Fred Winter may have had the effect of reducing the field size (only 16 will go to post), but finding the winner is only marginally easier than it ever was…

I would say that the top 10 in the betting have all got chances – though it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them ending up proving a fair bit superior. The challenge is to try and figure out – in advance – which one that will be…

In my opinion, the bookmakers have go the race priced up about right…

The favourite Calipto was an impressive winner of a very decent event at Newbury on his debut.

He travelled like a dream in behind the leaders and then quickened away from the last.

It was a similar story on his most recent outing – where he comfortably beat 4 older horses at level weights…

The big question for him, is how he will act on the track – but if he handles it OK, he will take the beating…

Second favourite Broughton, is more experienced – even though he has only run twice over hurdles…

He is a 90 rated horse on the flat and has seamlessly made the transition to hurdles. I would also expect him to run well – but the Cheltenham hill would be a concern…

The Irish Challenger, Guitar Pete, is the most battle hardened of the market leaders. He was impressive in winning a grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown last time – and I would fully expect him to run his race and probably get placed.

In theory, he is actually held by Royal Irish Hussar on the run at Cheltenham in November, but whereas as Guitar Pete has clearly progressed since that run, Royal Irish Hussar has only run once since, when finishing a disappointing third at Doncaster (behind Broughton).

I would have to respect the chances of the two John Quinn trained runners, Pearl Castle and Rutherglen: though I wonder if the track will suit the former; whilst I’m not sure the latter will be quite good enough…

On balance, boring as it is, I have to opt for the favourite, Calipto, to give Paul Nicholls a much needed winner at the festival.

0.5pt win Calipto 4/1

2:05 County Hurdle

Just the 28 runners to consider in this !

That said, there is no way that I wasn’t going to have Alaivan on side…

I actually thought (hoped ?!) that he would run in the Martin Pipe race later on the card. My initial feeling was that he would be better suited by the longer distance of that race. However, his rating wouldn’t get him into it – yet bizarrely it gets him into this more prestigious contest…

On reflection, I’m not actually sure that the trip will be an issue either way.

Whilst 2 miles appears to be his minimum requirement, he is proven over the trip – and lets be honest, non of the races at Cheltenham are won by short runners.

His stamina could ultimately win him the day up the famous hill (assuming he’s not got too far behind !).

He actually ran a fair fifth in this very race, 3 seasons ago, off a mark of 144.

The previous season, he had run third in the Triumph hurdle. So he already has significant Cheltenham form in the book – and a touch of class.

However, following a remote sixth to Hurricane Fly in the grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown in 2011, he was off the track for over 2 years, only returning this autumn, having transferred to the stable of Jonjo O’Neill.

A couple of non descript runs, were followed by a much better effort when finishing second at Wincanton.

That run seemed to suggest that most of the old ability was there – something that was confirmed by his subsequent staying on sixth in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury…

He was raised 2lb for that run – but still gets in today off a mark of just 132.

Furthermore, he has the assistance of crack apprentice Maurice Linehan – and that’s ignoring the fact he is trained by man in form, Jonjo O’Neill.

As I said, there is no way I wasn’t going to tip him !

As a saver, I have opted for the Alan King trained Montbazon.

He was a very good novice a couple of seasons back (he finished fourth in the Supreme) but injury kept him out of action until he reappeared in the Betfair hurdle.

He ran a fair enough race there – without ever threatening – but should strip fitter for it.

If he’s retained his ability, he is potentially well handicapped off a mark of 140 – and he should love the quick ground.

He’s a risky one – but as Ballynagour showed yesterday, the risky ones can make excellent savers J

The final one I want on side is the Tony Martin trained, JP McManus owned, Thomas Edison.

He has been unlucky to be badly hampered the last twice he has run – so his level of ability remains difficult to gauge. However, I suspect he could be pretty talented – as his bumper victory over Champagne Fever a couple of seasons back, suggests.

He should be suited by todays quicker ground and I think there is just a chance that he could bring up APs hatrick of poor mount choices at this meeting !

There are plenty of others whose chances I respect, but most of them sit at the head of the market, so I’m happy enough to stick with the 3 !

0.25pt EW Alaivan 16/1

0.125pt win Montbazon 25/1

0.125pt win Thomas Edison 25/1

2:40 Albert Bartlett hurdle

According to the betting, this is a two horse race between Briar Hill and Kings Palace…

Kings Palace was made favourite for the race following his destruction of Masters Hill over this course and distance in December.

His win that day was characterised by quick, accurate jumping and if he gets into a rhythm up front today, he could well get a lot of his rivals in trouble a long way from home.

However, he is the kind of horse that Tom Scudamore has struggled to get right in the past. He has a habit of going off just a bit too quick – and ends up paying the price. Young Scu has improved as jockey this season – but I still think this one – and the way it needs to be ridden - will test him to the full..

His situation will be made worse by the fact that he’ll know that Ruby Walsh will be tracking him on unproven stayer, Briar Hill.

He won last seasons Champion bumper and has made a smooth transition to hurdles this season. He is unproven over todays trip – but his pedigree suggests it won’t be a problem.

He will sit in behind Kings Palace and look to pounce on the run to the last …

How this race ends up, its likely to depend to a large extent on how well Scudamore judges the pace.

If he gets it right, there is a chance he will win – if he gets it wrong, there is a chance he won’t even place…

Either way - and assuming Briar Hill is a different class, there is still at least one place up for grabs – and quite possibly two…

The obvious contenders, Captain Cutter, Deputy Dan and Champagne West have shown their best form in very heavy ground.

They may well handle todays quicker conditions but I think it is worth taking a tiny risk on a couple at big prices..

Blakemount ran a cracker to finish second to Urban Hymn at Doncaster last time out. He will relish todays trip – and as a son of Presenting, ought to improve for the better ground. Provide he can stay in touch, he will be running on at the end.

The other one of interest, is Apache Jack. A brother to the high class Black Jack Ketcham, he is a gradual improver and gave Briar Hill a bit of a race last time out.

On the book, he shouldn’t be able to beat that one today – though it will be a much different test.

Ultimately whilst neither may be quite good enough to win, I think there are reasons for thinking that both will be able to significantly out run their respective odds.

0.125pt EW Blakemount 40/1

0.125pt EW Apache Jack 33/1

3:20

I’ve got to be honest, this is not really a Gold Cup that captures my imagination…

Maybe we’ve been spoilt in recent season, with likes of Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman – but from where I’m sitting, this field looks a little disappointing…

In part I think it’s because I’m not a huge fan of Bobs Worth. Sure, I can admire him for what he’s achieved – and it can’t be denied that the horse has a heart as big as himself – but he just lacks that little bit of ‘Je ne said Quoi’ (as our French cousins would say)…

Ofcourse that doesn’t mean he won’t win the race – and on ground he should love, against a bunch of largely inferior rivals, he is likely to take a lot of beating.

But simply, he’s not one for me…

That said, credible alternatives are thin on the ground.

I’m not a huge fan of Silviniaco Conti either – but he was impressive in winning the King George chase at Kempton, where he stayed on well to get the better of Cue Card.

Last Instalment is a horse I have taken to – and he was a hugely impressive winner of the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardstown last time.
In truth, he didn’t beat a lot that day - but he did so with a display of awesome jumping and brute power. The issue with him is the ground. He has legs like glass – and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if connections decided late on to withdraw him from the race.

On genuinely soft ground, I think he would be the one to beat – on quick ground, I think he will be pulled up (if he is allowed to run).

Gigginstown have a ready made replacement for him in the race, in the shape of First Lieutenant. He’s a decent enough horse - and unlike Last Instalment he will relish the quick ground – but simply he doesn’t look good enough to take a Gold Cup.

There has been a late run of Triolo D’alene – again on account of the going.

He was an impressive winner of the Hennessey back in November – and although being targeted at the Grand National, could well be up to taking a hand in the finish today.
He will need to improve to do so – but as he is only 7, that is a distinct possibility…

And so to the tip for the race, The Giant Bolster.
Regular readers will know I’m a bit of a sucker for this horse. In fact the only time I didn’t tip him, was when he won the Argento chase on his most recent outing !

I had given up on him that day – due to a series of disappointing displays. But the application of a hood and visor seemed to elicit significant improvement from him – and he won that decent race with a fair bit in hand.

In truth, on the book, he should have won that race – but that wasn’t the point.

The point was that he showed the form he has always been capable of – and if he repeats that again today, I can’t see how he will be kept out of the frame.

He has finished second and fourth in the last 2 runnings of the Gold Cup.

Last season he finished fourth despite the race taking place on unsuitably soft ground – and him hitting most of the fences.

On his preferred decent ground, he is likely to run much better today (provided the head gear works a second time) - and if that is the case, as a horse who should now be right at his peak, he simply has to be there, or thereabouts…

Of the others, then on quick ground, there are not many who warrant a mention. I could see grand National hopeful Teaforthree outrunning his odds - but that shouldn’t really see him finishing much better than fifth or sixth.

I would also like to see Katenko run a big race – as he was ante post tip earlier in the season. However the horse has looked a shadow of his former self this year – and it will be quite some achievement if Venetia Williams manages to get him to run a big race today.

0.25pt EW The Giant Bolster 16/1

4:00 Foxhunter chase

I have to admit that I’m not an authority on Hunter Chasers…

I watch most of the races that take place under rules – but those run in the point-to-point fields, are generally just things I read about…

That said, I do know the level of form required to win this race – and I think that Tammys Hill is more than capable of running to that level.

In fact, the form book confirms that to be the case.

This race has been won for the past 2 seasons by Salsify (admittedly he was a little fortunate last season), and in their 3 encounters in Hunter Chases in Ireland last season, there was absolutely nothing between Salsify and Tammy Hill. The score was actually 2:1 in favour of Tammys Hill – but I’m prepared to acknowledge that might flatter him a little…

Even so, the fact remains that Tammys Hill is capable of getting very close to the horse who has won the last two runnings of this race.

In truth, there is at least one other runner in this race who is capable of a similar level of form: On The Fringe.

He and Tammys Hill are 1:1 in their encounters this season – and it would be difficult to say with confidence who will come out on top today.

Therefore it is a little surprising that the bookmakers make Tammys Hill twice the price of On The Fringe.

Ofcourse there is the possibility that both horse will be usurped by a young challenger – and the market always loves that possibility.

If that does happen, then Harbour Court is most definitely the most likely one to do it. But he’s just a 5/1 shot – and I would rather take proven form over potential…

Of the others, then Oscar Delta must get an honourable mention. He was so unlucky not to win this race last season – few would begrudge him compensation this time round.

However he is 11, and his form since last March hasn’t been at the same level. Stranger things happen – but based on recent form he shouldn’t win.

There is guesswork involved with most of the others, though Certain Light was very impressive on his debut under rules last time out and could represent a bit of value at 20/1.

0.5pt win Tammys Hill 7/1

4:40 Martin Pipe hurdle

Anyone got a pin handy ?!?!

As impossible races go, this one takes some beating – but you know me, never one to duck a challenge…

When I first went through the runners, the one I instinctively wanted to be with was Full Shift.

Trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico De Boinville, he has won 2 of his 3 races over timber and has the potential to be significantly better than his current mark of 135.

The trouble is, so do a fair few of the field – and I just couldn’t bring myself to tip him at 6/1 in a race such as this…

Instead, I’ve gone for a couple at bigger prices…

The Skyfarmer was on a real upward curve, before the wheels came off at Ascot last time out.

However, that was on very heavy ground – and his previous runs all suggest that he is better horse on good.

He was a comfortable winner from Lyvious (who himself won well on his next outing), with daylight back in third, when he ran over this course in December.

Admittedly that was off a mark of 123 and he runs off a mark of 139 today – but he looked like a huge improver that afternoon.

He steps up in trip today, but I think he can take that in his stride - and he has decent conditional, James Best, on top.
The other one I want onside, is Shantou Magic…

Following a hugely impressive win in a novice hurdle at Market Rasen in November, he was thrown in to grade 1 company in the Challow hurdle at Newbury.

He was quite well fancied that day, but after having led early, he was ultimately found out by the hike in grade.

His subsequent run in a handicap Wincanton, when a disappointing favourite, is slightly harder to forgive. However, like the Newbury run, that race took place on very heavy ground and as a son of Shantou, there has to be a good chance that he will bounce back to form on todays quicker surface.

He doesn’t come without risks – but that is true for the majority of today field – and at least with him, the price significantly compensates for the risk.

0.25pt win The Skyfarmer 16/1

0.125pt EW Shantou Magic 33/1

5:15 Grand Annual Chase

The final race of the festival – and one of our best chances of success on the day…

Whether that is with the main tip in the race, Tanks for That, or the saver, Next Sensation, I wouldn’t like to say, but hopefully one of them will come good…

When Looking at this race, I am always inclined to closely examine the runners trained by Nicky Henderson first…

The race is named in honour of his late father and he invariably masses his battalions for an assault on the prize.

He’s been successful a couple of time on the past decade – but with relatively unfancied contenders – so he’s not easy to read.

This time, he only saddles 3 runners in the race and I would be reasonably confident that Tanks for That is his number 1 challenger…

I say that because, unlike AP (!), Barry Geraghty tends to opt for the ‘right’ horse when given a choice – and he is on Tanks for That this afternoon…

The horse has got previous in the race. He finished second to stable mate Bellvano, in this contest 2 seasons ago. He looked for all the world, the winner that day, when he jumped the last 3 lengths clear. However he got nailed close home by the enigmatic, but talented, winner…

That run was off a mark of 149 – so off a mark of 144 today, Tanks for That clearly has a chance on the book.

Admittedly he is now an 11 year old, and so reaching the twilight of his career, However he showed last time out when battling on bravely to take an AW bumper at Kempton, that the fire still burns bright and I would expect him to put up a very big performance this afternoon…

If he is out-speeded by younger legs, then I hope they are attached to the frame of Next Sensation…

This 7 year old has been a massive improver this season and runs today off a mark 37lb higher than he won from at Plumpton back in October.

However his rise in the rating has been fully merited, with his last time out destruction of a good quality field at Doncaster, particularly taking…

My slight concern with him is that he is a horse who likes to lead - and in a race like today, that is going to be a very difficult thing to do (particularly with Oscar Hill in opposition).

Hopefully he will be happy to sit second or third – getting a nice lead and out of the way of most of the trouble.

If that happens and his jumping gets into a rhythm, it will take a very good one to get past him.

Of the others in the race, then I am happy enough to take on most of the market leaders, for one reason or another – but I would be a little way of the Venetia Williams trained Dare Me.

He was s hugely impressive winner last time out and whilst he was hammered by the handicapper for that win – and runs on completely different ground today – it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a very big race.
Maybe worth a tiny, unofficial, saver…

0.25pt EW Tanks for That 16/1

0.25pt win Next Sensation 7/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.