Daily write-up - Mar 20th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Ludlow and Chepstow in the UK – and Thurles in Ireland.

In truth, the meetings today didn’t quite grab me as they have done earlier this week – and it was my original intention to take the day off.

However, I then spotted a horse running at Chepstow – and he compelled me to wait a little while for my day of rest !

In truth, it’s not been the best of weeks so far…

There is obviously a temptation to put it down to post Cheltenham blues – but I’m not sure that is the case.

I’ve put up quite a few horses this week – but most of them have been quite speculative.

It is the nature of such selections that they will only hit the jackpot every now and then – and I think it’s more a case of them just not coming off this week.

We’ve had 2 or 3 run well – but that is all.

I actually think that todays tip is probably the strongest I’ve put up all week (and I really don’t care what the market says !).

I did briefly consider staking it as 0.75pt – but discretion got the better part of valour (as tends to be the case with me !).

Here’s my thinking behind it – and thoughts on some of the days other races…

Chepstow

4:15

I’m really quite keen on the chances of Counting House in this…

He’s got connections that no one likes (apart form me J ) – and a poor win/run record – so that should see his price hold up !

However, on form I think he has a decent chance: he should relish todays conditions and be ready to run a big race. In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…

Form wise, a rating of 117 doesn’t flatter him. He won a competitive hurdle off 115 a few seasons back – and has run well off higher marks since then.
Most of those runs were over hurdles, but he has shown decent form over fences in his 3 starts this season.

First time out this season, he ran fourth to Smad Place in a novice chase at Exeter.

He was only beaten 15 lengths that day, by the horse who subsequently went on to finish runner-up in the RSA chase at the festival last week.

The second and third in that race are rated 136 and 128 respectively, suggesting that Counting House ran to a mark of around 123, that day (and he was likely to have needed the run).

On his second outing over fences, Counting House finished fourth in an eventful chase at Chepstow, behind Samingary and Annacotty.

Again, that looked like a decent chase and he wasn’t disgraced to be beaten less than 15 lengths at the line.

Counting House is not a fan of heavy ground, so he took off most of the bad winter months, reappearing at Warwick 4 weeks ago in a chase over 3m5f.

Firstly the distance of that race was too far for him – and secondly, the ground too soft, so in the circumstances I think he ran respectably to finish sixth.

The handicapper has generously dropped him 6lb for that run – and it should have teed him up nicely for todays contest.

When you add in the fact that he will be running on the right ground today - and over the right trip – like I said at the beginning, you see a horse with ticks in a lot of boxes…

The really nice thing about him however, is that he is trained by Jim Old and ridden by Mark Grant  - and neither are particularly popular with the masses. That means that we are likely to be getting value about him.

I have to admit that I’m not the biggest fan of Grant (though he’s probably not as bad as some would have you believe !); whilst I’m actually a bit of a fan of Jim Old.

He trains very few horses nowadays – and many of them are old plodders – but he does manage to squeeze the odd win or two out of them.

In fact, by his standards, he’s in remarkably good form at the moment, A win, two seconds and a third from his last 6 runners, has to be considered reasonably hot form, for his small stable…

In terms of his opponents, then a 5lb rise for a good run in defeat on soft ground, makes Camden look opposable; whilst on balance, it always makes sense to oppose Barlow (though I do like the horse !).

You would have to respect the chance of Rebeccas Choice - if he is fit; whilst Special Account is another who I would be a little fearful of…

The Musical Guy and Dark Glacier would both have a chance if they bounced back to form – but their recent runs haven’t been great.

On balance, then I think Counting House has a very solid profile for a race like this – and I really can’t see him not running well.

There is the chance that something will be able to get the better of him – but he is probably the most solid option in the race, so sets the standard that the other have to beat.
Let’s hope non of them are quite up to that, today…

0.5pt win Counting House 10/1

Ludlow

When I look back over the 2013-14 TVB season, I think 3 horses are going to stand out…

Foritsa, Freckle Face – and Come on Annie.

Non of the 3 would have been on anyones radar at the start of the season, but I managed to find them early and they have provided us with a 5 wins between them – and that could have been more, if I ‘d kept faith for a little longer…

The first 2 named have both already won this week – and it’s Come on Annies chance to complete the hatrick this afternoon…

She makes her chasing debut in a novice handicap at 3:30 – over 2 miles and on ground that I would think is probably quicker than ideal.

That said, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small bet on her.
She has shown at least twice already this season, that she is pretty decent – and whilst her ability to jump fences is an unknown, I can’t see why she should have an issue with them.

Similarly, the ground is more an unknown, than a ‘no’.

It would be difficult to tip her, with so much doubt hanging over her – but I’ll certainly make her a mention and will be cheering her on this afternoon.

I can see Last Shot going well in the handicap chase at 4:40…

He was a really impressive winner over course and distance back in December. That day, he grabbed the race by the scruff of the neck and jumped and galloped his rivals into submission.

The tight Shropshire course seemed to suit him really well – as did the quickish ground.

He’s not repeated that form since – but as a consequence, gets to run off a mark just 6lb higher today. An additional 6lb wouldn’t have stopped him when he won in December, and whilst he does face slightly tougher opposition today, if he gets into the same rhythm up front, it will take a good one to pass him.

Thurles

The handicap chase at 3:20 looks an absolute minefield…

It’s the kind of race, where after the event, the winner will look obvious. Unfortunately, the trick is to unravel these puzzles before they take place !

My suggestion would be to monitor the market.

Money for Fiery Oscar, Matsukaze, El Mondo or Leap Dearg, would look very significant.

If it doesn’t materialise, then An Dearthair Og is the one most likely to take advantage…

In the 5:05, I could have been interested in Ultra Light – at a price…

He was a bigger price in a similar race at Down Royal on Monday, when he came down just after half way.

He was travelling very nicely at he time – but I’m a bit surprised that many picked up on the fact.

I assume that must he case as I can’t see why he would be so short in the betting otherwise.

I wouldn’t really be interested at 6/1 – but if he did reach double figures, he might be worth a small play.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chep 4:15 Counting House 10/1

Mentions

Lud 3:30 Come on Annie (S)

Lud 4:40 Last Shot (O)

Thur 5:05 Ultra Light (P)