Daily write-up - Mar 6th

3 meetings today at Wincanton and Carlisle in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland…

Small fields and short priced fancies seemed to be the order of the day at the two UK meetings – and with half my mind on Cheltenham, non of the possible tips passed the risk/reward test…

That wasn’t the case for one at Clonmel, which I do think is worth taking a risk on.

Obviously I appreciate that tipping in a low class mid-week Irish race isn’t ideal – but hopefully most of you will have managed to get on at a half decent price (I would have been quite happy to take the risk at 16/1).

There’s not too much to update on with regard to Cheltenham…

A weather forecast that sees a band of high pressure parked over the UK from the weekend onwards, prompted me to start issuing tips for next week.

I’m expecting the going on day 1 to be close to good/soft, and will be tipping accordingly.

I’m quite keen to try and get ahead of the game, as there is so much ground to be covered.

That said, I will only be tipping horses if I think they have a decent chance – and if I believe their price will contract prior to the race day.

Hopefully we will build up a reasonable portfolio over the next few days…

Anyway, on to todays action – and the rationale for the days tip – plus a few other thoughts…

Clonmel

3:40

Mollys Affair has caught my eye on all 4 of her runs over hurdles…

She only made her hurdling debut on the first day of this year, when finishing 6 lengths fourth to Layla Joan at Fairyhouse.

Mollys Affair travelled as well as anything to the home turn that day – but just didn’t seem to get home. That said, she lost little in defeat behind a rival who is now rated 145…

Next time out, again at Fairyhouse, she was ridden more aggressively – but folded up the home straight. That struck me as a run that had her handicap mark in mind…

It was a similar situation with her third run over hurdles – only this time, she was never really put in the race…

As a result of those 3 runs, she was given an opening handicap mark of 100 – but asked to run over a trip of 2m6f  at Punchestown.

Also, her trainer, Tom Foley, had a more fancied runner in the race.

Mollys Affair was quite weak in the betting that day, but still ran a fairly promising race to finish fourth.
As was the case in her novice hurdle races, she travelled nicely through parts of the race, but gave the distinct impression that she would benefit from a drop back to the minimum trip…

That’s what happens today – and I’m hopeful she will be able to capitalise on it.

Her three most recent runs have taken the attention away from her highly promising hurdling debut (the second and third horses in that race also both won next time out) – so she no longer jumps out of the form book and is consequently available at a decent price.

Top weight, Avondhu Lady is the most obvious danger, as she is rated 20lb higher over fences…

She was successful over hurdles on her penultimate start – but struggled a bit to win that day and is running from a mark 10lb higher today.

She may well find the necessary improvement – but I’m not sure she is a good thing…

Very few of the others hold much appeal, so if my reading of Mollys Affair is right, I’m optimistic that she will be able to go very close…

0.25pt EW Mollys Affair 20/1

Our old friend Hop In must have a very good chance of breaking his duck over fences in the beginners chase at 4:40…

He was a promising third on his chasing debut at Thurles at the end of January – and todays extra 4 furlongs should suit him well.

The 7/2 on offer looks a fair enough price - though it is difficult to get a handle on all of the runners and you also have to be a bit wary about taking a short price in a novice chase…

More Madness runs in the 5:10 race – and I would again expect him to run well (as he did when he was a mention at Down Royal, last time out)

That said, I’m not sure that stepping back half a mile in trip will help him – as there must be a chance that one or two of his rivals will have a bit too much pace for him…

Wincanton

Enchanting Smile could well make up for his last time out unseated, when we were on him at Chepstow.

I really fancied him that day, so off the same mark, he must have a great chance today…

The trouble is, at a general 2/1, there is no margin in the price – particularly in the circumstances (ie. a last time out unseated).

Also, the ex Irish Martin Cash catches my eye on his first race for Paul Henderson…

He will need to improve on his Irish form to take this – but 8/1 seems a fair price for the risk involved…

I’ve got a feeling that Quaddick Lake might run a bit better than the odds imply in the handicap hurdle at 3:35.

He is gradually falling down the handicap and the booking of a 10lb claimer today, takes the eye.

That said, I’m not sure that 2 miles is his best trip – and the unexposed Red Seventy looks a big danger – particularly if he is backed…

I’m a bit surprised to see Yellow Ball as big as 10/3 against just 2 rivals in the 4:05 race…

Admittedly one of them is Benbens, who won very well last week. He’s only got a 7lb penalty for that victory – but a bigger concern would be his quick reappearance as he is a horse who has clearly been difficult to keep right.

The trip is a slight worry for Yellow Ball as she’s not appeared to stay much more than 3 miles on her last two runs – but if there is not much pace in the race, she might get away with it.

Carlisle

I do like the look of Hidden Horizons in the 2:40 race – and if the 9/2 in a place had been generally available (and not just with Stan James !), she would likely have been a tip today…

I’ve been following her most of the season and todays 2m5f trip in heavy ground should be perfect.

She was a bit unlucky last time out on her handicap debut (though it’s impossible to say whether she would have won) – and whilst she has been raised a pound for that run, the 7lb claimer on top today will more than offset that impost.

It’s possible to give a few others in the race a fair shout – but even at 4/1, Hidden Horizons is the strongest mention of the day…

Edmund should take some beating in the 3:45 race – but the market is wise to him.

He was most unfortunate to bump into Indian Voyage last time out, when that one won with any amount in hand.

Take him out of the race and Edmund would have won well, from a horse who itself won next time out…

Edmunds mark has remained unchanged following his last run, and I think he will take the world of beating…

I thought Big News looked potentially interesting (for those of a forgiving nature !) in the 4:45 race – but that was when he was a 5/1 shot…

He’s 3/1 now – and whilst he could easily outclass todays opposition, there is little value in that price about a horse who needs to bounce back form a serious of disappointing runs…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Clon 3:40 Mollys Affair 20/1

Mentions

Clon 4:40 Hop In (O)

Clon 5:10 More Madness (C)

Winc 3:00 Martin Cash (S)

Winc 3:35 Quaddick Lake (C)

Winc 4:05 Yellow Ball (C)

Carl 2:40 Hidden Horizons (P)

Carl 3:45 Edmund (P)

Carl 4:45 Big News (S)