Daily write-up - Mar 29th

Just the 3 NH meetings today, at Stratford and Uttoxeter in the UK – and Navan in Ireland…

The calendar says it s a Saturday – but the fixtures would sit more comfortably on a Thursday…

Obviously that’s because the turf flat season gets underway today at Doncaster – plus there’s a big AW meeting at Kempton – and the Dubai world Cup.

Times are a changing….

Today will be the penultimate day of the TVB season. It is supposed to end on Monday (the final day of March) – but with due respect, I can see myself struggling to raise enthusiasm for Hexham and Plumpton !

There is a decent meeting at Ascot tomorrow which will provide a more fitting finale…

I’ll then take 3 days off before returning for the ‘Aintree Encore’ !

During those 3 days, I’ll look to get out a final report for the season.

I’ve already found some fascinating stuff to report back on – so I’m sure you’ll all find it a riveting read ;)

Ofcourse that means that Aintree – like Cheltenham – will be covered outside the scope of the main service – but I think that is the best way for me to handle both meetings.

I don’t want to be constrained by what is happening in the normal season – they are one-off events and should be treated as such.

Anyway, more on that in the next few days…

With regard to today, then there are 3 tips (which is quite a lot by recent standards !).

All 3 have form that could see them dotting up this afternoon – but they also have something to prove.

Here’s the rationale behind them…

Stratford

3:40

Just under 18 months ago, Vulcanite looked a horse of tremendous potential…

He hacked up on his seasonal debut in a handicap hurdle at Fakenham off a mark of 134 and was then put over fences. The expectation was that he would really blossom over the larger obstacles - but it’s just not happened…

He’s shown a few glimmers of his ability – including an eighth placing at last seasons Cheltenham festival behind Rajdhani Express – but after a disappointing seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October, where he made a serious of mistakes, he was returned to hurdles.

In truth, that’s not gone particularly well either – but I think there are valid reason for his 3 subsequent runs in that sphere.

The first of those, at Huntington, was over a trip to far, on ground too soft - he didn’t get home that day.

The other 2 runs were in deeply competitive class 1 handicaps – and probably a bit more than he fancied at that point in time.

He’s had nearly 100 days off the track since the last of those runs so will turn up today a fresh horse.

He will be running over a 2 mile trip on decent ground, so there will be no excuses on either of those counts. He has also dropped to a mark of 129 – 5lb lower than the mark which he comfortably won from at Fakenham.

Noel Fehily is on board – and the stable of Charlie Longsdon is coming back in to form.
In short, he ticks a lot of the boxes…

As he is still only 7, there is certainly plenty of time for him to resurrect his career – lets hope he starts on that path this afternoon.

0.5pt win Vulcanite 8/1

4:15

If he had not been beaten last time out, then I’m pretty sure that Court by Surprise would be quite a short priced favourite for todays contest.

His last time out run took place in the class 2 Grimthorpe chase at Doncaster. Sent off 11/2 third favourite for that race, he ran a little disappointingly and only finished sixth.

Still, he has been dropped 3lb for that – and it could be argued that he was already on a fair enough mark, so it’s not difficult to see him going well in todays weaker contest.

In fact, this is the first time in his last 8 races that Court by Surprise hasn’t run in a class 1 or class 2 race. And he’s been competitive at those levels – so he should be able to handle the quality of today opposition.

Although he has been running over slightly further, I think todays 2m7f trip should suit him fine – thought he wouldn’t want the ground to be on the soft side,

That is a tricky one to judge, as there has been some recent rain - but temperatures today are set to hit 17degrees with a slight breeze. Hopefully the ground will be in the good to soft area…

Non of his rivals today look particularly appealing to me, with Fruity O’Rooney and Renard D’Irland probably the 2 that I would fear most.

However the former hasn’t shown much this season – whilst the latter hasn’t really got the class of Court By Surprise.

0.5pt win Court by Surprise 11/2

I was half tempted by Riddleofthesands in what looks a very weak event at 2:30…

In truth, Riddleofthesands is no world beater himself - but he won’t need to be to win this particular event.

It’s not easy making a case for any of the other runners – but the step up to 2m4f for Riddleofthesands is a bit of a worry – particularly as the horse tends to be a bit headstrong.

If Sam Twiston Davies can settle him OK, I would expect him to win – but he wasn’t quite tipping material…

Uttoxeter

4:30

Form figures of ‘FPP’ suggest that Havingotascoobydo has got bit to prove today – and whilst that is undoubtedly true, I think he is worth a small risk to bounce back to form…

Just over 2 years ago, he was sent off 9/2 favourite for a class 1 chase at Cheltenham, when running off a mark of 141.

He was an early faller that day and it’s pretty much all been down hill since that point…

Today he gets to run off a mark of 112 in a class 4 event – which is really quite a remarkable slump.

However, last time out, I thought he showed distinct signs of a return to form…

Running over a trip that was probably too far for him, he was the only horse who gave runaway winner, Mart Lane a race at Doncaster.

Havingotascoobydo was still within striking distance and going quite nicely as he approached the home straight.

However, he then came under pressure and started to struggle, before eventually being pulled up.

Ofcourse there is a chance that he experienced breathing difficulties - and that would explain the overall dip in his form. However, he’s had 3 months off the track since then, so if that was the case, connections have had plenty of time to try and sort it out.

We are unlikely to know whether that has been successful until the comes under pressure up the straight today – but if it has, then over his ideal trip and off a handicap mark that he would have laughed at not long ago, I can see him winning eased up !!

Let’s hope that proves to be the case…

0.25pt win Havingotascoobydo 10/1

It will be fascinating to see whether Un Majeur Aulmes can make a successful chasing debut over the course where he won a very hot hurdle race so impressively, back in December…

His 2 subsequent hurdle runs at Wincanton have both been a bit disappointing – so he is left with something to prove this afternoon.

He is also facing a couple of rivals who are rated higher than him over the smaller obstacles.

I couldn’t really recommend following him – but I won’t be too surprised if he does upset the odds this afternoon.

Navan

Royalor is the horse that most interests me at Navan this afternoon…

I really felt I had found one when I tipped him in a handicap chase just before Christmas – but it wasn’t to be…

He has subsequently run 3 times in maiden hurdles and performed reasonably.

Today he makes he handicap debut over hurdles and gets to run off a mark 12lb higher than his chase rating.

That suggests he’ll be hard pressed to win – and whilst that might be the case, I wouldn’t want to ignore him if he did receive any market support, as I suspect he is a horse with a fair bit more ability that either of his ratings suggest.

If the going really is heavy, then I think Bog Warrior could represent a bit of value in the 4:35 race…

He’s a horse that was over-hyped in his younger days – and because he never reached the dizzy heights predicted, I feel he is now being prematurely written off…

Only 3 runs ago, he ran a cracking race in the World hurdle – where he looked to have the whole field in trouble until he didn’t quite get home.

His 2 runs over fences this season have been a little disappointing – but there were valid reasons for both. 

He could have been a Top Pick – apart from the fact that if he does win, I expect he will be backed to do so !

Just a strong mention then…

Finally, I could be really keen on Rich Revival in the 5:10 race – if I could be sure this wasn’t just a prep run for end of season targets…

He was just a 10/1 shot when pulled up in last seasons Irish Grand National off a mark of 136.
He’s shown nothing in two runs this season – but gets to run over hurdles today off a mark of 112.

Provided he has not gone at the game (and I thought he showed a few signs of temperament last time out) then he really should win off that mark – assuming he’s teed up to do so.

The market will probably tell – so if he is backed late, I would encourage you to take the hint.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Strt 3:40 Vulcanite 8/1

Strt 4:15 Court by Surprise 11/2

Uttx 4:30 Havingotascoobydo 10/1

Mentions

Strt 2:30 Riddleofthesands (C)

Nav 3:25 Royalor (S)

Nav 4:35 Bog Warrior (C)

Nav 5:10 Rich Revival (C)