Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham Day 2)

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival – and it’s going to have to go some to match the drama of the opening day…

It never ceases to amaze me how Cheltenham can hits the highs and the lows – so frequently and so rapidly.

The joy – and disbelief – of Western Warhorse; replaced by the desperation of Our Connor; replaced by the immortality of Quevega.

All in the space of a couple of hours…

Maybe that explains why, win, lose or draw, we keep on returning for more !

And I’m sure we’ll get more this afternoon – though precisely how things will unfold, is anyone’s guess…

As expected, the ground was riding relatively quick yesterday.

Officially a few track records were broken – but that was only because they have changed the rules for timing the races (the clock now starts when the first runner crosses the start line – as opposed to when the flag goes up).

I therefore targeted the right horses yesterday – we just didn’t quite get the rub of the green.

Consequently I’ve gone for similar types of horses today – I just hope we don’t get the same kind of luck !

Just a few words on the tip notifications that I’m sending through for each race…

It’s apparent that the method I use ordinarily, isn’t quite as well suited to Cheltenham…

Non of my tips are moving the betting markets; and whilst some of the prices quoted are doubtless difficult to get – others are easily beatable, as bookmakers seem keen to push out horses in order to attract business.

What I will therefore do from now on, is just issue one email in each tipping window, listing all of the tips – along with ‘guide prices’.

These prices will be the prices generally available – assuming I consider they have sufficient margin.

I will then leave it to each of you to use your judgement to secure the best price on each horse.

Hopefully you will find this acceptable (it will also save me a fair bit of time !)

Anyway, on to the preview for today….

1:30 Neptune novice hurdle

It could well be a case of Déjà vu in the opening race of the day, as the Ricci/Mullins/Walsh combination that took the opener yesterday are represented by the strong favourite, Faugheen.

A staggeringly easy winner of a bumper on his debut at Punchestown last season (beating Josses Hill, who finished second in yesterdays Supreme), he has been a comfortable winner of his 3 hurdle races this season - in the process looking just about the best of the Mullins novice hurdlers.

It will be something of a surprise if he is beaten today – and at odds of 5/2, I think it could have been argued that he represented a bit of value…

However the late defection of Royal Boy has seen his price crash – and even though he is by far the most likely winner of the race, a best price of 6/4, represents no value.

In the absence of Royal Boy, the chief opponents to Faugheen are now his stable mate, Rathvinden and the David Pipe trained Red Sherlock.

These two met over course and distance on trials day in January, with Red Sherlock victorious by two and a half lengths.

However, he is 3lb worse off with the runner up today – and on very different ground, it’s difficult to know which one will come out on top.

Either way, it is unlikely that they will be good enough to beat the favourite and instead, I would rather take a tiny chance on one of the rank outsiders…

Cole Harden was an impressive winner at Newbury on his penultimate start, before appearing to struggle with the right hand track at Ascot, last time out.

Back racing left handed, I would expect him to run a fair bit better than his dismissive odds suggest and it is worth risking that he can sneak into the frame at huge odds.

0.125pt EW Cole Harden 50/1

2:05

This is one of the really big races of the week for me…

I latched on to Morning Assembly back in the autumn – and everything I’ve seen since then has convinced me that he is going to run a huge race today.

His victory in the grade 1 novice stayers hurdle at Punchestown last April (when he had Balleycasey well behind ) marked him as a top class novice hurdler – and I feel he has improved further this season, since going over fences…

He won a fair novice chase on his seasonal debut at Punchestown at the end of October and followed that up with a gutsy victory over Don Cossack at the same course in November.

He looked beaten that day, when Don Cossack loomed upsides him at the second last, but he showed tremendous guts to fight back and take the race close home.

On the back of that win, he was made favourite for the Topaz novice chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, but had to give second best to Carlingford Lough.

However, he lost little in defeat that day, as it was almost certainly Carlingford Lough’s greater experience that won him the day.

Morning Assembly has been put away since that race and so arrives today a fresh horse.

He is also a relatively inexperienced one (this will only be his fourth run over fences) – but his jumping so far, including when put under pressure, has looked very sound.

The horse has an engine, an ability to jump and a great attitude - he also has plenty of scope for improvement.
In short, he is a very solid contender…

However, he is a little unlucky that this year, there appears to be a particularly strong field assembled for the novice staying championship.

Numerically, there are 15 runners (which is a lot) – and more than that, most of them have at least half a chance.

In addition, to the 3 other Irish challengers (Balleycassey, Carlingford Loch and Don Cossack), there are at least half a dozen UK trained runners who can be given a serious chance.

I don’t fear any one of them in particular, but I do feel that Black Thunder (who I tipped for the National Hunt chase) is overpriced at 20/1.

He has a couple of lengths to make up on Corrin Wood but should be well suited to the test he is likely to face today.

Also, Gevrey Chambertin looks a most interesting runner for the David Pipe stable.

He was a very decent hurdler and was expected to make a winning chasing debut when thrown in at the deep end, in the Reynoldstown novice chase at Ascot.

However, he disappointed that day and was eventually pulled up.

Clearly however, connections have not lost confidence with him as todays race represents an even bigger challenge.

Of course there is the distinct possibility that he will flop again – but at a huge price, I think he is worth having on side to a minimum stake.

0.5pt win Morning Assembly

0.25pt win Balck Thunder 20/1

0.125pt win Gevrey Chambertin 33/1

2:40 Coral Cup

28 runners – and doubtless half of those are plot horses – this isn’t a race for the faint hearted !

Son of Flicka is possibly the most interesting runner in the race. Already a dual winner on this contest, he gets to run off the same mark as when last successful 2 years ago (having spent most of the time in between, running over fences).

If he is back in top form, he will likely take some beating…

However, purely on that run, he will have his work cut out to again beat Get Me Out of Here. That one finished 3 and a half lengths behind him in 2012 – but is 7lb better off today.

He also has the benefit of being trained by master target trainer, Jonjo O’Neil – and has AP McCoy on top. Add into the mix the application of first time cheek pieces – and a decent run when last sighted in November (the first for a while) and you have a very interesting contender…

I find it difficult not to have him on board, in the circumstances…

Ofcourse the issue with both Get me out of Here – and Son of Flicka - is that their form is mainly in the past, but there are plenty of contenders for who more recent cases can be made…

Dell Arca, Dungub, Kaylif Aramis and Whisper all come here on the back of decent runs – and it doesn’t take too much imagination to see them being involved in the finish.

However, I have looked elsewhere for my other tips in the race…

Ifandbutwhynot is a horse that I’ve had my eye on all season.

I tipped him back in November, when he was unlucky to be stopped in his tracks by a faller in the Greatwood hurdle (sound familiar ?!).

He made up for that mis-fortune by winning next time out and Newbury – and then ran really well to finish second at Musselburgh.
His subsequent unplaced run in a conditions race at Haydock can be ignored as he had little chance at the weights that day.
What particularly interests me about him today, is that he is being stepped up in trip for the first time – and fitted with a hood. He looks quite a quirky character and if the hood does settle him down – and he gets the trip, then I could see him putting in a much improved showing. The booking of Bryan Cooper for what I think, is his first ride for David OMeara, also seems very interesting…

The final one I want on side is Vendor.

A decent juvenile (he was third in the Fred Winter at the festival in 2012), he showed nothing last season, but has bounced back to form this campaign.

A first time out win in a competitive race at Newbury was followed up by a highly creditable eighth placing, in the Betfair hurdle at the same track.

The 2 mile trip would probably have been too short for him that day so the step back up to 2m4f today, should be a big help.

There isn’t the same level of mystique surrounding the case for him that there is for the other two – but I feel he could still have some potential for improvement and 138 looks a reasonable handicap mark.

025pt EW Ifandbutwhynot 33/1

0.25pt win Get me out of Here 16/1

0.25pt win Vendor 16/1

3:20 Champion Chase

‘The Champion Chase’ without Sprinter Sacre – it would be more appropriate to call it ‘The Missing Champion Chase’…!

Ofcourse, no race is bigger than any particular runner – but there can be little denying that the absence of the ‘Black Aeroplane’ has resulted in the race losing a good deal of its lustre…

However, there will still be winner – a new ‘Champion’ will be crowned – and it is my job to try and work out who that will be…

The most obvious place to start, is with favourite Sire De Grugy.

He has been the horse who has benefited most this season from the absence of Sprinter Sacre – and there can be little doubt, that based this season’s form, he is a worthy favourite.

However, he has a significant Achilles heal – he’s not a fan of Cheltenham.

He was beaten here earlier in the season (his only defeat of the campaign) and came out second best behind Captain Conan when he ran over this course last season.

In fairness, he has improved since both of those runs – but all the same, the nagging doubts remain that the Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham is beatable…

When you look down the rest of the field, then it is difficult to see anything that would sit comfortably on the Champion chase roll of honour – with one notable exception…

Sizing Europe won the Champion Chase in 2011. That was a year after he had won the Arkle chase. In both 2012 and 2013 he finished runner up in the Champion Chase. On the first of those occasions he was unlucky not to win; whilst on the second was the only horse to give the imperious Sprinter Sacre any kind of a race.

He actually did even better on his next outing at Punchestown, when he gave Sprinter Sacre a scare – possibly one that he hasn’t recovered from…

There can be no arguing that Sizing Europe has been a 2 mile chaser of the highest order – but he is now 12 years old – and surely past his best…

Whilst that is undoubtedly true, I just feel that the old boy might have one final big day in him – and if he does, that day is likely to be today…

He will get his ideal ground today – and might just be able to boss the race. The application of cheek pieces for the first time looks an interesting move – and if Andy Lynch can get him into a rhythm up front, I think he will take the world of beating…

In terms of dangers then the one I fear most is Bailey Green.

He was runner up both in last seasons Arkle (behind Simonsig) and on his seasonal debut behind Sizing Europe at Gowran in October.

He will also relish todays quicker ground - and his campaign has been geared around him peaking today.

He’s still to prove that he is Championship performer, but if anything is to step up to the mark today, I think it will be him.

0.5pt win, 0.25pt place Sizing Europe 16/1 & 12/1

0.25pt win Bailey Green 10/1

4:00 Cross Country chase

This looks a very difficult race to call…

The majority of the main protagonists are linked in to each other via a number of form lines either from the cross country course at Cheltenham or the banks course at Punchestown.

Both the official handicapper - and the bookmakers seem to have things roughly where they want them, which makes finding an angle into the race tricky…

Ofcourse I could take a flyer and go for one of the horses who is debuting over todays obstacles (such as Hey Big Spender or Duke of Lucca) – but instead, I have opted to side with A Stray Shot.

He is only 7 years old, which is relatively young for a horse to be competing over this course – and he has very few miles on the clock…

Of his 9 career runs, only three have been outside hunter chase/PTP company – and it is the most recent of those that makes him particularly interesting today…

That was over the banks course at Punchestown at the beginning of last month.

It was the first time that A Stray Shot had run over a cross country course and he picked a very tough race to debut in.

The race was eventually won by Love Rory, with Big Shu in second place – those two are favourite and fourth favourite for todays race.

So it was to his credit, that A Stray Shot was able to run a close fourth to those far more experienced rivals – only beaten 6 lengths at the line.

More than that, he didn’t get a great run round the home turn – and is a fair bit better oft at the weights with them this afternoon…

In short, based on that run, A Stray Shot has a very decent chance of placing this afternoon – and even half a chance of winning.

There is the possibility that his inexperience will catch him out – but against that, he has plenty of scope for improvement.

At odds of 33/1, he simply had to be the bet…

0.25pt EW A Stray Shot 33/1

  

4:40 Fred Winter hurdle

This looks an absolute minefield – with 24 mainly unexposed, potential improvers in opposition.

There is so much guesswork involved, it could be argued that it’s a race best swerved  - but that’s really not my style ;)

Particularly so, when having gone through the race, I managed to come up with precisely the same two horses that Pricewise found !

Ofcourse, that could just be coincidence – but it didn’t negatively affect my belief in my findings…

The two horses in question are Violet Dancer and Orgilgo Bay.

Violet Dancer comes from the under-rated stable of Gary Moore.

After 3 unproductive runs on the flat this summer, he made his debut in a novice hurdle at Plumpton. He was a comfortable 10 length winner of that race, from a Paul Nicholls trained horse that is now rated 126. On that victory alone, Violet Dancer looks well handicapped today on a mark of 130.

His victory at Plumpton was followed up victory in a better race at Sandown.

That marked Violet Dancer as a useful performer and on his next outing he was thrown into grade 1 company for the finale hurdle at Chepstow.

He could manage third that day – but the winner, Le Rocher, is probably the best juvenile hurdler seen out this season, so he lost little in defeat.

His most recent run saw another defeat, this time at Huntingdon, but that was messy race and the form can’t be taken at face value.

Based on his 3 earlier runs, Violet Dancer must have a big chance today.
Orgilgo Bay looks to have been layed out for this race.
He was a very useful horse on the flat (rated 96) and made a fine hurdling debut when successful at Punchestown in October.

The horse he bat that day, Claracan, reopposes this afternoon 6lb worse terms – and would appear to have little chance of reversing the form.

Orgilgo Bay has only run twice more this season.

He was very disappointing when brought over for a race at Bangor – and then set off way too fast, when ultimately finishing last in the grade 1 spring juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown.

The way he ran that day smacked a little of connections working on his handicap mark (going off at an unsustainable pace).

Of course there is risks with both horses – and at least half a dozen serious dangers.

However, I do think that both animals have got much better chances than their prices imply – and the fact that Pricewise agrees, increases my hopes just a little !

0.25pt win Violet Dancer 20/1

0.25pt win Orgilgo Bay 16/1

  

5:15 Champion Bumper

Another race where plenty of ‘guesswork’ is required – and there is even less form to work on !

The obvious place to start when trying to find the winner of a bumper, is with the Willie Mullins horse. However as his runners occupy the top three positions in the betting, I quickly moved on from them !

Instead, I have opted for a couple of horses that caught my eye in a bumper run at this course at the November meeting…

Red Sherlock won that race – and has subsequently gone on and proven himself a very decent horse over timber (he is second favourite for the opener on today’s card).

Just behind him in third that day, was Our Kaempfer.

He ran a mighty, considering that it was only his second run under rules – and he was evidently not expected to feature (he was a 251/ shot and the less fancied of two runners form the Charlie Longsdon stable).

It briefly looked like he might actually win the race – but his inexperience caught him out close home.

The fact that he’s not run since then, suggests that connections have been targeting this contest.

Neck or Nothing also ran in the same race, but finished unplaced.

However he was going as well as anything when he inexplicably jumped the path running down the hill to the final bend.

That did for his chances and he was allowed to come home in his own time.

A winner on his debut at Punchestown in October, Roger Brookhouse subsequently paid £200,000 to secure him at the sales.

He has his first run today for Philip Hobbs and I suspect his owner might be quite keen to start recouping some of his investment !

The other one I couldn’t resist in the race, is Royal Vacation.

Just a 4 year old, he made his debut at Ascot in the middle of last month – and there will be few bigger eye catchers all season !

Seemingly under pressure and going nowhere on the turn for home, he made up over 20 lengths up the home straight to be beaten just 4 lengths at the line.

It was clearly his inexperience that caught him out that today as his raw talent was there for all to see.

He represents the same connections that took this race with another 4 year old, Cue Card, a few years back – 40/1 seemed a fair price about history repeating itself this afternoon…

0.25pt win Royal Vacation 40/1

0.125pt win Our Kaempfer 25/1

0.125pt win Neck or Nothing 25/1 

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.