Daily write-up - Mar 4th

They race today at Exeter and Newcastle…

Just one week to go !!!!

The meeting at Newcastle has virtually no appeal – but the one at Exeter is far more interesting…

I have no intention of spending hours piling through the form for this weeks meetings (those hours are being spent piling through the form for next weeks meeting !) – but if I think that one of the horses on my alerts list has a good chance, I’m prepared to spend a little time checking out its case…

That’s what happened last night with Super Villan – and as a result of my investigation, he became a tip this morning.

More on that shortly…

With regard to Cheltenham, then all of the major bookmakers on Oddschecker – apart from William Hill and Ladbrokes – are now offering NRNB of all of the races…

I would guess that the 2 ‘big boys’ will start offering the concession when the 5 day declarations come through (starting tomorrow) – though with Ladbrokes, you never know for sure !

With NRNB generally on offer, I will be far more likely to start issuing tips for the festival – though the ongoing uncertainty over the ground is still making me a little nervous.

I reckon the ground could be anywhere from Good/soft to Heavy – which is a very big range.

Hopefully we will start to get a little more clarity over the next day or two, as the weather forecast begins to firm up.

If I find any fancies that are relatively ground indifferent, then I’ll look to issue a tip – but if I find anything with a strong ground dependency, I am likely to hang fire…

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tip – and a few other thoughts on the Exeter card…

Exeter

3:30

Super Villan is a horse that we are quite familiar with, as I have already tipped him twice this season – and attempted to tip him on a third time, but he was declared a non runner that day…

The first time I tipped him, he was successful in a handicap at Ffos Las, in which two thirds of the field fell ! Despite that, his victory over the only other finisher, Handsupfordetriot, is still pretty good form.

The second time, was on his latest run at Cheltenham…

He was an outsider in a competitive novice handicap chase that day - but I still felt he had a fair chance.
However, it wasn't jockey Jamie Moores finest hour, as he got into a pace duel with the potentially top class Annacotty – and came off second best.

I suspect that run is best forgotten…

Super Villan was next due to run in a novice handicap chase at Chepstow at the end of last month. However he was withdrawn from the race in the morning, having been subjected to very strong early support (9/1 down to 9/2).

Maybe that was just a coincidence - I don’t honestly know…

Todays race looks to be very similar to the Chepstow one – but with a smaller field.

That is good news for Super Villan, who likes to dominate his opponents – and with no other likely front runner in todays contest, I would be optimistic that he will get the run of the race.

Heavy ground is also imperative to Super Villan – and he should have no issue with todays 3 mile trip.

In short, he has ticks in a lot of boxes…

Despite there being just 5 runners, todays race does look quite open…

I couldn’t confidently dismiss any of his rivals – and accept that at least a couple of them have more scope for improvement than he does.

However, that is factored into the prices – and there can be no denying that Super Villan is the solid call.

Hopefully Jamie Moore will ride a more intelligent race on him today because if he does, I think his rivals might just struggle to get past him up the Exeter home straight…

0.5pt win Super Villan 6/1

In the opener on the card, I did briefly toy with tipping handicap debutante All but Grey…
He caught my eye on his debut at this course back in November – but then surprised me by winning on his third start at Taunton…

He was subsequently well beaten back at the Somerset venue – but that was in a better class of race.

He makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 108, which look fair to me - as does the price of 9/1 (with early morning favourite, Dungeness now out of the race).

The problem I have is getting a handle on the opposition…

Particularly in a race like this, you could literally be taking on anything.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him EW – because I think he will run his race – but I felt he was just a bit too risky to tip…

I was hoping that I might find something in the Devon National at 3:00 – but I can’t…

Alderluck has to be of interest, as he will relish todays test and is on a mark 2lb lower than he was last successful off.

The trouble is, there is not a lot of juice in a price of 4/1 in what is a very tight knit contest…

I would make him the most likely winner – but couldn’t quite bring myself to tip him at the price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 3:30 Super Villan 6/1

Mentions

Exe 2:00 All but Grey (O)

Exe 3:00 Alderluck (P)