Daily write-up - Mar 8th

They race today at Sandown, Chepstow and Ayr in the UK – plus Gowran in Ireland…

As you would expect, the weekend before Cheltenham, things are pretty quiet for Saturday – but I’ve got to say, I kind of like that…

Far too often, there is a danger of being overwhelmed by the action on a Saturday afternoon – but not today.

Across the 4 meetings, there were around 6 races that caught my attention, which I consider a manageable number.
 

Ofcourse, it might not make any difference to results – but at least I didn’t feel quite so stressed when I went to bed last night !

The other thing is that I suspect we may be seeing the last of the really heavy ground today.

Temperatures are expected to reach the teens over the next couple of days and the word ‘good’ is appearing in more and more going descriptions (even at Cheltenham).

Chepstow still claim ‘heavy’ – but Sandown have adjusted to ‘soft’.

Spring is in the air – and things are a changing…

Here’s the rationale for the days tips…

Sandown

2:05

As always, this looks a frighteningly competitive race (perfect for warming up for next week !).

Whatever the outcome, I would encourage you all to watch it closely as it is likely to contain a host of decent novice chasers for next season.

With regard to winning it today, then that looks a bit trickier…

My original intention was to just tip Theatrebar – each way. He’s a horse that I took to when I first saw him battling to victory on his hurdling debut at Ludlow, back in November.

He showed a really likeable attitude that day – and although he was beaten next time out at Bangor, his attitude again couldn’t be faulted.

He was unable to give 7lb to Classic Move that day – but on a massive 18lb better terms today, he must have every chance of turning the tables with that one for a 12 length beating…

Since the Bangor race, Theatrebar has been beaten twice more – but has run creditably in defeat on each occasion.

I think he’ll run his race again today – and whilst it is impossible to be adamant that he will be good enough to win, I hope that he will at least go close…

I wouldn’t be quite so confident of Goohar running his race today – but if he does, he just might be capable of upsetting a few better fancied rivals…

Like Theatrebar, he is very inexperienced as todays race will only be his third over hurdles…

He has shown progressive form throughout his short career, and his last time out victory over the highly regarded Desoto County was his best run to date.

He looked beaten in that race, jumping the final flight – but battled back determinedly to snatch victory in the shadows on the post.

He has to run over an extra half mile today – but I would expect him to improve for the extra distance.

Again, it’s impossible to be confident about him – but I do think he’s got a better chance than his odds imply.

0.25pt win Theatrebar 25/1

0.25pt win Goohar 20/1

2:40

I tipped Soll earlier in the week, for the Cross Country chase at the Cheltenham festival.

His presence in todays field, suggests that he won’t be running next Wednesday.

Still, you should all have been on him NRNB, so there will be no damage done – and we can back him today instead…

He actually won this race 12 months ago – and off a mark just 2lb lower than he runs off today – so his chance really is there for all to see…

He was very impressive that day: attacking from the off, he was clearly well suited to both the soft ground and the Sandown track and he recorded a comfortable victory over There’s No Panic.

Soll only ran once more last season - in the Grand National.
He acquitted himself with great credit there, finishing seventh behind Auroras Encore.

His seasonal debut this campaign saw him finishing an eye catching fifth behind There’s No Panic, again over todays course. 

On the back of that run, I tipped him in his next outing but he just couldn’t handle the desperate ground and only finished fourth behind Relax.

Another heavy ground disappointment at Haydock has seen a 4lb drop in his handicap mark – putting him on a very attractive mark…

It’s difficult to see many flaws in his case – particularly as he could have the run of the race - so it’s really a question of whether any of his opponents are well enough handicapped to beat him…

Chartreux is the obvious one, as he was in the lead and still going well when he capsized at the third last at Kempton last time.

The trouble is, his fencing can be a bit hairy – and Sandown is a track that takes a bit of jumping.

The other one I fear, is De La Bech. He won well 3 outings ago – and there have been excused for his last two disappointing runs. If he puts it all together today, he would be the one I would fear most…

0.5pt win Soll 7/1

3:15

This years Imperial Cup doesn’t look quite as competitive as is often the case – but it is still likely to take a bit of winning…

Regal Encore has clearly been laid out to try and land this (presumably along with one of the Cheltenham handicaps next week) and you have to respect his chances…

He finished second in last season’s Champion bumper and has only run 3 times over hurdles. A win and two seconds only tell half the story – as he has met defeat at the hands of a couple of very smart novices.
His opening mark of 130 could seriously underestimate his ability…

However, he’s been off the track for nearly 3 months  – and his stable are struggling for form. 4/1 is quite tempting – but I decided to pass on it.

Instead, I’ve gone for a relatively exposed outsider in the shape of Somemotersdohavem…

We were on him 3 runs back at Warwick, when he ran disappointingly in a relatively weak event.

If he is going to win today, then he will need to run much better than he did that day !

Fortunately there are reasons to think that should be the case.

Since the Warwick run, he has run two fine races in defeat, firstly at Chepstow and then at Taunton.

He really impressed me on both occasions, with the way he travelled – and battled - and I think he was a bit unlucky not to collect at least one of those prizes.

When you take those runs – and add in the Doncaster run that persuaded me to tip him at Warwick, you see that he’s only run one poor race in his last 4 (when we were on him !).

He’s clearly taken a little bit of time to reach his peak for Venetia – but he seems to be there now.

It’s hard to argue that he is spectacularly well handicapped - but his mark doesn’t seem overly onerous and he has scope for improvement.

I think he is a solid bet to run his race – and if he does that – and a few of his rivals don’t – then anything is possible !

0.25pt EW Somemotherdohavem 20/1

In the final race on the Sandown card, I expected us to be on Arbeo…

He opened up at 20/1 last night – and at that price (or even a little less) I thought he would be worth a risk. He has shown little this season – but won this race last year form a 3lb higher mark – so is potentially very well handicapped…

However, as is so often the case, the well handicapped horse has been backed…

I was genuinely shocked to see him an 8/1 shot this morning – and at that price, he can’t be a tip…

There are plenty of others in the race capable of taking advantage if Arbeo doesn’t bounce back to form, with Denali Highway looking the most attractive alternative option…

Chepstow

5:35

A little bit like Somemothersdohavem, we were on Master Neo last time out, when he disappointed at Warwick.

His was a really disappointing run that day, as not only did I expect him to go very close, the market did too (he was backed down from 9/2 to 3/1 fav at the off).

He just never got into the race however, as it was run at pace from the off (in heavy ground) and that seemed to prevent Master Neo from getting into a rhythm.

It really looked to me as if it was the sharp course that didn’t suit him – and I would be very optimistic that Chepstow will be more his cup of tea.

Certainly he ran his best races last season at Ffos Las and Uttoxeter and the characteristics of those courses are quite similar to Chepstow.

If you ignore his last run, then Master Neo has undoubtedly got a big chance this afternoon.

The three mile trip on heavy ground is exactly what he wants – and his handicap mark is now down to an exploitable 112…

I did briefly toy with also putting up Mauricetheathlete as a saver…

He is potentially very well handicapped – and loves the Chepstow mud. However, he has been completely out of form this season – and is unproven over fences.

20/1 is a fair price – and you should certainly consider saving your stake on him – but I just couldn’t bring myself to tip him with so many doubts over him.

0.5pt win Master Neo 9/1

In the previous race on the card, I would really have liked to tip Minella on Line…

I was interested in him last time out at Kempton in a better quality race. He finished third that day and should relish todays extra distance.
I was hoping that a bit of 3/1 might be available this morning – as I would have tipped him at that price against some mainly moderate opponents. However, 2/1 is the general price on offer and whilst I think he will win – that is a bit too tight.

We’re in Top Pick territory again, I think !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Sand 2:05 Theatrebar 25/1

Sand 2:05 Goohar 20/1

Sand 2:40 Soll 7/1

Sand 3:15 Somemothersdohavem 22/1

Chep 5:35 Master Neo 9/1

Mentions

Sand 5:00 Arbeo (S)

Chep 5:35 Mauricetheathlete (S)

Top Picks

Chep 5:05 Minella on Line