Wednesday 5 February 2014

Review of the day

One of the unexpected pleasures of my ‘job’ is that I get to meet people who otherwise, I never would have met…

When I say ‘meet’, I generally mean exchange emails etc. – though I have actually met one or two of you guys !

When I started this season, I was delighted to take on board some really decent guys, who now sit alongside the cream of last years crop, in forming the TVB readership…

One such guy is Dave…

Now I won’t claim that I know Dave very well. My knowledge of him is limited to the information he provided through the TVB questionnaire and a few emails that we have subsequently exchanged….

However, I get the impression that Dave has really bought into the TVB philosophy – and that it has given his personal betting a new lease of life…

So, what am I telling you all this ?

Well…

Dave sent me an email yesterday evening, pointing out that Come on Annie was running today – and saying how well backed she had been…

He also mentioned that he was interested in a horse that was running today – it’s name, Indian Voyage…

About half an hour later, after I had checked out the horse’s form in RP and watched videos of most of it’s runs, I sent him an email back to say that I thought he might be on to something !

The rest, as they say, is history….

When Dave made contact with me yesterday, Indian Voyage was 10/1 with Corals…
When I got up this morning, it was 8/1 in a couple of places.
By the time I issued the tip, it was 7/1 with Stan James.
By the time the race started it was a 7/4 shot !

I’ve tipped a lot of horses in my time, but I can’t think of many who have crashed in price to that extent !

And surprise, surprise, under the most confident of rides, Indian Voyage absolutely hacked up.
For sure, it had form in the book the entitled it to be competitive - and as I said this morning, I felt there were reason to upgrade its recent runs. However, not in my wildest dream would I have expected it to be backed into 7/4 and to win by 9 lengths hard held !

I think someone knew something !!

Fortunately for us, whilst Dave didn’t actually know something – he did think he might have spotted something.
Furthermore, he was kind enough to share his thoughts with me.

If we do ever all meet up in person, I think we all owe Dave a drink J

Alas, that was as good as it got this afternoon, tips wise – though both Hidden Present and Free World, ran with credit.

Both attempted to make all – and Hidden Present came quite close to pulling it off.
However, he was pestered through the early stages of the race by Popaflora, meaning that his rider could never get a breather into him.
Consequently, whilst he did battle on gamely at the end of the race, his stamina reserves had already been used up.

It was a shame really, as Popaflora, was supposed to be running at Clonmel tomorrow but was routed to Down Royal when it became apparent that the meeting there was likely to be abandoned.
Obviously we’ll never know for sure, but I suspect that Hidden Present might just have held on without him in the race…

It was a different story with Free World, who was never going to win, simply because he raced too freely in the early stages of the contest.
Maybe when the ground is so desperate, there is something to be said for having an experienced jockey on board, because I just don’t think that Free World distributed his energies as effectively as he might have done.

In truth, I don’t think he would have beaten the winner however he was ridden – but I do think he could have finished closer.
Still, I guess we might be able to exploit that at some point in the future…

Another horse whose chance I felt was compromised by the ride she was given, was Top Pick, Come on Annie…
Being held up at the back on such desperate ground, can never be a good thing – though she did absolutely sluice through the field going down the back straight.

Unfortunately for her however, those exertions took their toll and she was running on empty by the time she reached the home straight.
I know she is much better than she showed today – though she might now need a bit of time to recover from her recent exertions…

Elsewhere, it was a mixed afternoon for the mentions…

BlueSide Boy looked set to win at Carlisle – but then fell in a heap, suggesting that the combination of ground and distance were too much for him.
He probably deserves another chance…

Later on the card, Rupert Bear got a bizarre ride…
Despite being backed from 14/1 early into 11/2 at the off, he just hacked round at the back of the field…
I really can’t offer any explanation for it  - at least not one that doesn’t suggest dodgy goings on ! – he will remain firmly on my radar !!

Despite drifting to 9/2 at the off (a price I might have been tempted by), Twoways battled his way up the Carlisle hill to record another convincing victory.
He is clearly a horse on the up – who is well suited by the current conditions…

Whilst in the Carlisle finale, Bertie Milan was backed into 9/4 favouritism, but  ran no sort of race and trailed home last.
The race was won by Etxalar, who made a mockery of the weight disadvantage he was at with Bertie Milan.

In the opener at Down Royal, More Madness ran a really good race to finish third.
He looks an admirable horse – though he may need to drop a few pounds in the handicap if he is to get his head in front (and that is unlikely to happen after todays performance).

Whilst in the penultimate race on the card, The Engineer also ran very well to finish third…
It would appear that he is just a shadow of the horse he threatened to me – but that doesn’t mean that he might not be able to win a race or two – in due course…

TVB.

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