Daily write-up - Feb 5th

There are 3 meetings today: at Ludlow and Carlisle in England – plus Down Royal in the North of Ireland…

They are not bad meetings either – though it looks like we need to make the best of them, with another band of wet weather working its way up the country…

The meetings scheduled for Taunton and Clonmel tomorrow, have already been lost – whilst Wincanton has to survive an early inspection (and they can’t be optimistic).

Doncaster will probably be OK – though I wouldn’t guarantee it !

Anyway, that’s tomorrow – we’ve got today to deal with first !

4 tips across 3 races, make it the busiest mid week day in a long time.

Furthermore, I could easily have doubled those numbers – if the odds had been there (or more accurately remained there !).

There were plenty of opportunities on the first shows last night – but as is so often the case, they were gradually eroded, leaving us with just the one acceptable early price.

That was subsequently supplemented by a couple of drifters (!) – and one in an Irish race, which I‘ve had my eye on for a while.

So all in all, quite a mixed bag.

Anyway, here’s the rationale for the days tips – along with a few mentions – and a Top Pick !!

Carlisle

1:20

This is quite an interesting race –and one where I could give a decent chance to 3 or 4 of the runners…

The market is headed by Edmund, who won nicely at Newcastle on his penultimate outing and was still travelling within himself, when coming down last time out at the same course.

Provided that fall hasn’t left it’s mark, he should be competitive in this race. However, he runs off a mark 8lb higher than his success – and in a tight contest, I feel he is under priced at 2/1…

Indian Voyage is probably under-priced at 3/1 – but we are on him at 6/1+, so that isn’t a problem for us J

He was actually 10/1 last night – and I was hoping he would remain under the radar today. However, he was picked up by the main writer in the RP – so I guess that price was never going to last…

He has only run 4 times over fences – but has shown much better form over the bigger obstacles than he ever did over hurdles.

On his debut run over fences, he finished fifth to the very smart Any Given Day – but that finishing position doesn’t do justice to his performance, as he was the only one who tried to give the winner a race (and he subsequently paid for that).

He followed that run up by finishing second behind Bygones of Brid at Hexham.

He was then put away for the summer and returned at Carlisle in December, to finish second again, this time behind Etxalar. That was a good run – and Indian Voyage looked likely to win until being worried out of it in the closing stages (when lack of fitness maybe caught him out)…

His most recent run at Newcastle, looks on the face of it to be disappointing. However he made a shocking blunder at the fifth last that day – and wasn’t much better at the following fence.

In the circumstances, fourth place wasn’t a bad effort…

Obviously he will need to jump better today – but I’m hopeful that will be the case.

Indian Voyage is dropped half a mile in trip today, which is an interesting move – but one which I hope will see an improve performance.

Certainly in his last two runs, he has travelled very well, before not quite getting home.

Although there were other excuses on both occasions (fitness and mistakes), it might simply be that he doesn’t quite stay 2m4f.

The other horse I want on side in the race is Cooldine Run…

He looked exposed as pretty limited in his native Ireland – but a transfer to the stable of John Needham, seems to have brought about significant improvement…

After a couple of runs to get his eye in, he looked sure to win at Southwell, but belted the second last and was ultimately out battled on the run in.

However, he retuned to the same course a fortnight later and gained compensation in no uncertain terms.

He may only have won a 4 race horse race that day but there seemed no fluke whatsoever about his victory as he absolutely bolted up.

A 9lb rise in the weights won’t make his life easy – but as a horse on the crest of a wave, I think he is worth a saver at very fair odds.

0.5pt win Indian Voyage 7/1

0.25pt win Cooldine Run 11/2

I really wanted to tip Blueside Boy in the 2:20 race – but I thought there was little value in the early odds of 9/2, and now that he is a point less, my mind is made up !

The case for him is very similar to that for Mystifiable yesterday – and there are a similar number of concerns !

He is making his debut over fences today – but he way he jumps a hurdle leads me to believe that he will have no issue with the bigger obstacles.

He is also potentially well treated off a mark of just 102…

However, this will be his second run back after an absence of a year – and I’m not sure that 3 miles on heavy ground is what he needs at this point of his career…

I suspect he will ultimately prove to be the best horse in the field – but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will win today…

Another one to tempt me, was Rupert Bear, in the 3:30 race…

I tipped him in December – but he never showed in a race at Newcastle. However that was on good ground and I feel he will be much better suited to todays heavy…

That said, he runs from 4lb out of the handicap today – and I really feel he will be more effective giving weight away to inferior rivals.

One to keep on the radar – but hopefully not one for today..!

Sam Lord represents the form of that hot Uttoxeter race (Come on Annie etc), in the 4:00.

However, Twoways is the one that interests me in that particular contest…

He beat a couple of useful animals last time out – and should relish todays conditions.

The issue, as is often the case, is the price. There is no margin in a quote of 7/2 in a tight little contest…

Finally, I think Bertie Milan could be the one to be with in the last race on the card…

He won this race last year off the same mark as he runs off today – and the application of a visor for the first time suggests that connections mean business today…

He also has the beating of Etxalar on a couple of pieces of form – so his chance is there for all to see…

Maybe that explains why 4/1is the best price available…

Ludlow

2:40

I accept that Free World is not the most likely winner of this particular race – but I think he’s got a chance and general odds of 14/1 represent a bit of value…

It goes without saying that Free World is absolutely thrown in on his form of a few years back.

At that time, he was in the care of Paul Nichols and raced with some credit off a mark in the 150s…

However, his star has been in decline for a few years and after spending some time with Arthur Moore in Ireland and Tim Vaughan, he made his way to the small stable of Susan Brooke, late last year…

His first 3 runs for her seemed to suggest that the decline was going to continue - but then, out of the blue, he came good at Warwick on New years eve.

He followed that up by almost collecting again at Wetherby 12 days later…

As a result of those two runs, Free Worlds handicap mark has risen to 109 – but that is still more than 3 stone below where it once used to be !

The important thing here is obviously that the horse is in good heart.

We know that he once had sufficient ability to destroy this field – what we don’t know is how much of that ability remain..

At the odds available – and with a feather weight – I think he is worth a small risk to show he retains enough ability to upset some much more fancied opponents…

0.25pt win Free World 14/1

When I saw VC open up last night with Come on Annie at 6/1 shot, I thought Christmas had come early !

However, within an hour, they had her priced up at 7/4 – and that’s not far off the general price this morning…

In fairness, I think that’s a bit short – but I still think she will win (again !).

Theoretical case can be made for 2 or 3 of her rivals – and she is stepping up in class today. However we know she will relish todays conditions  - and she won incredibly easily last time out…

I was amused to read the post race comments of her trainer/rider, Alex Dunne.

If you recall, I thought she rode a really canny ride on Come on Annie to win at Uttoxeter in late December.

Unfortunately for her, it was impossible to ride such a canny race at Taunton on her most recent run, as the unexposed favourite, Midnight Request took the rest of the field apart…

In her post race interview, Ms Dunne said ‘She handled the heavy ground well but that has probably made the win look more impressive than it actually was’.

Nice try Alex ! She absolutely bolted up – winning hard held from an unexposed improver - with almost 40 lengths back to the third horse…

She can ofcourse hope that the handicapper only gives the mare a 5 or 6lb rise for that win  – but I somehow doubt he will be that naive!

Anyway, however I look at it, I think she’s going to win again today – but with the price very tight, she will have to be a Top Pick.

Down Royal

2:15

I was quite keen on tipping Hidden Present the last time he ran – but that race was a bit too competitive and I decided to pass on him.

That proved to be a good call, as he took a crashing fall at the fourth last fence.

He was still in with a shout at the time – though he wasn’t dominating the race and generally he runs best when that is the case…

He had lead the field for a good part of the race on his previous outing at Naas – but just couldn’t sustain his effort up the home straight and eventually faded out of things.

That was only his second run after his summer break however, so there is a possibility that he still needed it.

That shouldn’t be the case today – and whilst I would prefer him to be running over a little bit further than the minimum 2 mile trip, I suspect that even 2 miles will take a bit of getting today…

The other big thing is Hidden Presents favour this afternoon, is that there are no other confirmed front runners in the race …

Popaflora and Castle Anshan can both race prominently – but assuming he chooses to, Paddy Kennedy should be able to get him to the front today.

The reapplication of cheek pieces – and the fact that he is running over the minimum trip, lead me believe that he will look to make all.

His jumping can be chancy – but he tends to jump best when on his own in front.

The biggest question is probably whether he will be able to fend off his rivals up the home straight – but I’m hoping that is where his proven stamina will come into play !

The theory to get him home in front is all there – let’s just hope he can turn it into reality !!

0.5pt win Hidden Present 10/1

The opener on the card is a really competitive chase and whilst chances can be given to a number of the runners, I think More Madness can outrun his odds…

An ex PTP winner, he has also won on his only chase under rules, to date. The step up to todays 3 mile trip should also suit him well…

If the 16/1 with Sporting Bet was more generally available, he could well have been a tip (possibly EW) – but realistically, 12/1 is the price on offer and the margin there is a lot less…

Katnap was one that got away from us last time (his price collapsed) and now the cat is out of the bag…

He really should be too good for his rivals today – but quotes of slight odds on, make little appeal in a novice chase – even for a horse that jumps as well as he does…

Finally, those of you who like to take the odd risk might consider The Engineer, in the 3:55 race…

In the context of todays race, his form from a couple of seasons ago - and a subsequent mark of 99 - make him look absolutely throw in today.

However, he has clearly had problems and it is difficult to take too much out of his 2 runs this season (and I did try !).
If the money comes for him, he will doubtless hack up – but whether you should be  risking your hard earned before that point, is questionable – and after that point, the value will have gone !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Carl 1:20 Indian Voyage 7/1

Carl 1:20 Cooldine Run 11/2

Lud 2:40 Free World 14/1

DR 2:15 Hidden Present 10/1

Mentions

Carl 2:20 Blueside Boy (P)

Carl 3:30 Rupert Bear (C)

Carl 4:00 Twoways (P)

Carl 4:30 Bertie Milan (P)

DR 1:15 More Madness (S)

DR 3:55 The Engineer (S)

Top Picks

Lud 3:15 Come on Annie