Daily write-up - Feb 1st

4 meetings today, at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

Who’d be a tipster hey?!

I spent most of yesterday evening ploughing through the form and video replays, with little expectation of there being any action today. Sole destroying stuff…

And what happens, I wake up this morning, the sun is shining and all the racing is going ahead. Crazy !

Despite a full set of fixtures – and despite me quite fancying a few of the selections – I’ve been very cautious today (even by my own cautious standards !).

As I said throughout January, the problem with this kind of weather is that you don’t know how the ground will actually be riding.

The pace of the race also becomes much more important – and that is very difficult to predict.

Consequently, there is even more uncertainty than normal, when trying to pick winners – so the prudent route has to be to keep stakes small…

I restricted my study to the meetings at Sandown and Ffos Las, so the tips and mentions come only from those two meeting (I did briefly look at both Wetherby and Fairyhouse, but nothing caught my eye).

Without further ado then, the rationale for the days tips – plus a few other thoughts…

Sandown

1:15

This looks a pretty open race to me – and as regular readers will know, when a race looks open, I tend to gravitate towards an outsider…

In this particular contest, Gandalfe is the horse that has caught my attention.

He had lost his first 15 races under rules, prior to making his seasonal debut at Huntingdon back in November – but watching the race, you wouldn’t have thought it…

Travelling sweetly throughout, he put the race to bed rounding the home turn and came home by a comfortable ten lengths.

Despite his poor previous record, there looked to be no fluke about his performance – and the form has subsequently been franked by a few of the horses that finished behind him that day.

The handicapper was also impressed and gave Gandalfe an 11lb rise for his troubles.

However, next time out at Taunton, he ran nowhere near as well and finished a very remote fifth behind Workbench…

In order to support Gandalfe today, you need to buy into the theory that he didn’t run to form at Taunton.

In truth it is difficult to know why he ran so poorly as Taunton – though it is interesting to note that the Taunton race took place just 3 weeks after his debut run, whereas he is running today after a 2 month break.

That suggests that possibly the Taunton race came too soon for him – or that there was some issue, which connections have needed time to work on…

Ofcourse, this is all speculation on my behalf – but at the odds on offer, you need a few less obvious theories !!

It would certainly be a lot easier to put forward a case for Gandalfe if he hadn’t run at Taunton.

He looked an improved performer on his seasonal debut – and whilst he hasn’t run over 2m4f in the mud before, his performances last year suggested that the trip and ground won’t be an issue.

Lets just hoe that the Taunton run was a blip, because if it was, Gandalfe has a much better chance than the odds on offer imply.

0.25pt win Gandalfe 14/1

1:50

This is another very open looking contest – though I have to say I’m a little surprised that Filbert has been put in as one of the outsiders…

That wasn’t the case last time out, when he ran against 3 of todays rivals, in a contest at Wetherby…

Filbert was a well fancied 6/1 shot that day and looked poised to take a hand in the finish when he made a shocking blunder at the penultimate fence.

That put paid to his chances and he was only able to come home in fourth place behind the comfortable winner, Desert Cry.

However, Desert Cry got an 8lb rise for that win and I really think he will have his work cut out to confirm the form today, off a mark which I suspect might turn out to be beyond his ability…

Grey Gold finished second in that contest and he may prove to be a more dangerous opponent, running of the same mark today.

He is also likely to relish todays ground conditions and looks the one to beat. However, at 4/1, there is little margin in his price.

Prior to his run at Wetherby, Filbert had won a contest similar to todays, at Newbury.

That victory suggested that Filbert was an improved performer his season - something that had been hinted at, on his seasonal debut at Ascot.

Filbert demonstrated last season, his ability to run well on both a sharp right handed track and on soft ground – so neither of those should cause any issues today.

Of his other rivals, then aside from Grey Gold, I would be most fearful of Petite Rose and Kumbeshwar.

That said, my greatest concern is probably Filberts ability to safely negotiate the tricky Sandown fences.

If he does, then as an improving performer who should handle the conditions, I think Filbert has a much better chance than his odds imply.

0.5pt win Filbert 9/1

3:35

If one race is going to do for me today, I fear it will be this one !!

I spent a lot of time trying to decide what to tip in it (if anything !) and also on how best to stake it…

I eventually decided on a simple 0.5pt win bet on Soll – but the thinking behind it was a lot more complex than the final outcome might suggest !!

That said, the case for tipping Soll, is quite simple…

He was a massively impressive winner over course and distance, last March, when he powered through the Sandown mud to comfortably beat Theres No Panic.

He has only run twice since then; firstly when finishing a highly creditable seventh in last seasons Grand National; and then when again running with great credit behind Theres No Panic, on his seasonal debut at Sandown in December.
He looked likely to go very close in the latter race until lack of condition appeared to catch him out.

He will also be much better suited to todays slightly shorter trip on much softer ground.

In short, his credentials look very solid…

However, I have a fear in the race and his name is On Trend…

I know that as a tipster, there shouldn’t really be horses I like and dislike – but you know me (or you should do by now !).

Unfortunately, On Trend is a horse that I don’t like ! He did me no favours when wining this race last season – and off a mark 10lb lower today, I am fearful that he might pull the same trick again…

I did consider putting him up as a saver (I even briefly considered him as the main bet !) – but he’s only 7/1 so I figured it had to be one or the other…

At the end of the day, Soll is a horse I like - On Trend is a horse I don’t !

Not very professional – but some times you have to say it as it is…

Let’s hope that come 3:45 I don’t rue listening to my heart…

0.5pt win Soll 6/1

In the Scilly Isles novice chase at 2:25, I’ll be hoping that Oscar Whiskey can confirm his position as the leading 2m4f novice chaser in the land.

I think he will – and as a consequence, I think he will book his place in the line up for the Jewson at the festival.

I would just about favour Tatenen in the 3:00 race – but nowhere near as much as I did when he was scheduled to run at Ascot a couple of weeks back…

The ground would be a worry today – as would the track – but he does remain very well handicapped…

He faces 3 dangerous rivals though – and if Fine Parchment jumps out of the mud as he has done the last two times he’s been round here, he will take some catching…

Regal D’estruval was of some interest the finale on the card - even though I’m not sure the ground will play to his strengths…

What I do think will help him, is being fresh – as I’m sure that is how he is best caught.
He likes to get on with things though – and as Last Shot and Sew on Target like to race the same way, this is going to be a difficult race to call, before the tape goes up…

Ffos Las

2:40

If you have access to video replays, then you really must watch the performance that Smoking Aces put in last time out, in the Sussex National at Plumpton.

I have honestly never seen a horse jump so poorly – and yet race so well…

At virtually every fence he either made a mistake; was ponderous or ballooned it. Immediately, his jockey (non other than AP !) was on his case, chivvying him along – and every time, he responded by getting back on the bridle and cruising up alongside his rivals.

You will see such behaviour occasionally in races – but he repeated it, fence after fence…

The amount of energy he must have wasted doesn’t warrant thinking about – and yet, he still ended up bearing down on the eventual race winner, Reblis, after the final obstacle had been ‘negotiated’…

Now ofcourse, if Smoking Aces jumps in the same fashion today, he is likely to have problems.

However, his trainer, Jonjo O’Neill, must surely have taken some action to try and prevent a recurrence. And if he’s been successful, I honestly think this horse could hack up today…

The Plumpton race was only Smoking Aces second under the care of Jonjo – he was previously with Tom Taaffe in Ireland.
I watched a few of his runs over there and his jumping was not an issue at that time, so I believe the fundamental ability to get over a fence fluently, does exist !

Certainly based on his Irish form (and indeed the Plumpton run), Smoking Aces has more than enough ability to take a race such as todays. He was rated as high as 135 over hurdles and has won off a mark of 117 over fences – so a mark of 122 today, should be well within his compass (and is the same mark he raced off at Plumpton).

I also think there is a chance that he will be better suited to the style of todays jockey, Richie McLernon, than he was to AP last time.

Certainly, if McLernon can get a tune out of him, I think he will take a lot of beating…

0.5pt win Smoking Aces 15/2

3:10

Whilst there are some doubts about his jumping, there can be absolutely no doubt, that Maller Tree is an exceptionally well handicapped horse today…

He hacked up on his penultimate outing at Fakenham on New years day, off a mark of 125. As a result of that performance, the handicapper put him up 13lb and although eventually pulled up, he ran with some credit off that mark on his next (and most recent) outing at Sandown, behind Saphir Du Rheu in a class 1 contest.

Ofcourse both of those runs were over hurdles - and today Maller Tree is running over the larger obstacles – but he gets to run off a mark of 115, so a massive 23lb lower than his current rating over hurdles…

To an extent, the difference between the two marks is understandable. Maller Tree is proven over hurdles – whilst he has only run 4 times (and without much credit) over fences.

However, he’s not run particularly poorly over fences – he just ran over them at a time, when generally he wasn’t running that well (and he was given his chasing rating at that point).

There is no reason for thinking that his recent improvement over hurdles won’t be mirrored by similar improvement over fences – and if that is the case, then he could easily laugh at a mark of 115 today.

Ground conditions and distance shouldn’t hold any fears for him either, so he certainly has ticks in plenty of boxes…

Of his rivals, I would be most fearful of top weight, Poole Master – particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.

He wasn’t able to dominate last time out at Chepstow and so in the circumstances ran a fair race. He’s been dropped 2lb for that run, which should make him very competitive.

Again, I considered a saver on him – but simply, if Maller Tree jumps round cleanly, I think it would be 0.25pt wasted !
Let’s hope my confidence isn’t misplaced !!

0.75pt win Maller Tree 7/2

In the Welsh Champion hurdle at 2:05, I was half tempted by Grand Vision…

He was a very high class novice a couple of seasons ago and seems to have retuned this campaign, close to the peak of his powers.

If that is the case, he could look very well handicapped today, off a mark of 142. Todays trip is probably a little on the short side for him – but that could easily be off-set by the desperate ground…

The trouble with him is that he faces two potentially very strong opponents - plus a case of sorts could be made for just about every other runner in the race !

In the circumstances I therefore decided to pass on him as a tip – and just make him a mention…

Finally, in the 3:45 race I Whiskey Yankee has a very a very good chance.

I first picked up on him a couple of outings back at Ascot. He didn’t do much that day but now gets to run off mark 7lb lower…

I feel it is a case of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ with him – and with him owned by Dai Walters – track supremo at Ffos Las – today could easily be the ‘when’…

At the right price, I might have been tempted – but 4/1 wasn’t that price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Sand 1:15 Gandalfe 14/1

Sand 1:50 Filbert 9/1

Sand 335 Soll 6/1

Ffos 2:40 Smoking Aces 15/2

Ffos 3:10 Maller Tree 7/2

Mentions

Sand 3:35 On Trend (O)

Sand 4:10 Regal D’Estruval (C)

Ffos 2:50 Grand Vision (O)

Ffos 3:45 Whisky Yankee (P)