Monthly report - January

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 20.75pts

Total profit: -4.34pts

ROI  -21%

*Adjusted figures

Total staked: 20.75pts

Total profit: -6.22pts

ROI  -30%

*The adjusted figures assume that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether it wins the race.

So, a losing month – and I can’t even blame bad luck for it L

That said, a loss of just over 4pts in a month when the form book could be virtually thrown out of the window, can’t really be considered a disaster…

Ofcourse, I acted to stop losses getting any bigger, by greatly reducing the number of tips.

The 20.75pts staked were spread across just 46 horses competing in 41 races – both numbers significantly shy of those recorded for November and December…

In terms of placings, then the 46 horses achieved the following:

1^st – 4

2^nd – 5

3^rd – 9

4^th - 8

So after the ‘blip’ in December, when 1^st places headed that table, they are back in more familiar territory !

I tend to target 50% of the horses finishing in the first 4 – and with 26, that target was met this month. However, I also target 25% of the horses finishing first or second – so that came up a little shy (with just 20%)

Interestingly, if you combine the placing for December and January, you end up with the following:

1^st – 17

2^nd – 14

3^rd – 12

4^th – 11

Which is a much more balanced ‘scorecard’ – and suggests that the numbers may have been affected simply by where the month happened to end !

Certainly, when you are looking at such a short time period, that is always a possibility – but I do think there were a couple of others factors at play…

The first of those has been the weather – or more specifically the rain…

As I’ve said on numerous occasions, the issue with rain is that you don’t know what effect is has actually had on the ground, until it is too late (ie. after the race has been run).

Obviously you can make an educated guess – but that tends to be about all you can do, and with drainage and drying times varying from track to track, you end up guessing the effect of one of the most important variables.

 It was pouring down in the first day of the first (remember Cheltenham on New Years day !) and it was still raining on the last day of the month. That’s a long time to be guessing the state of the ground for (and the situaiton looks set to continue !).

The other factor that I think affected performance this month, was the Christmas period…

As I said last month, that took a lot out of me and whilst that may not have been obvious at the time (we continued to do quite well), I think it was a factor in the poorer performance this month.

It may seem a little odd, but you guys tend to only see the effect of things a few weeks after they have happened (it was the same situation at the start of the season, when it took 2 or 3 weeks for the winners to start to flow). That’s because I am watching races and finding things which will only benefit us a few weeks later (ie. when the horses next run !). 

Anyway, suffice to say, I’m not feeling as exhausted now ! – so we should only have the weather to worry about in February !!

In addition to the 4 winners, there were 3 other tips that traded at 2 or less in-running.

As a consequence, we can’t really consider ourselves unlucky this month (though there were 3 others who nearly traded at 2 and would have made that figure look very different if they had – but, you have to draw the line somewhere !)

So, that’s about it really…

My decision to reign back on the tipping – particularly towards the end of the month, has resulted in my quietest ever period in terms of daily write-ups.

That said, I will continue to give my thoughts on a daily basis, so hopefully non of you feel too short changed !!

In terms of going forward, then February has started in a very similar vein.

Obviously there is nothing I can do about the weather – though I might start chancing my arm a little more (the observant amongst you will have noticed that I could have hit winners on 3 of the last 4 days – it’s just a shame I chose to tip on the one day when that wasn’t the case !).

That said, I do feel that proceeding with caution remains the prudent thing to do…

We are barely over half way through the season – with the climax still ahead of us. I want to ensure that by the time Cheltenham comes round, we are all in a position where we are playing with money won earlier in the season.

I’m sure that’s a situation you would all like to be in as well…

TVB.