Daily write-up - Feb 14th

Sandown lost it’s Royal Military Gold Cup card earlier in the week, leaving Fakenham to provide the only action of the day…

In truth, it’s the sort of meeting that you would expect to see on a Monday afternoon – and I had every intention of leaving it alone, until I spotted a particular horse…

I’ll elaborate on that later !

Just a few more words on the blog post, ‘Making the most of the TVB service’…

A little bit like the post earlier in the season, on bookmaker account closures, this is starting to build into a thread that should really be read by you all…

It now contains a hosts of comments from various guys – along with my responses…

Most of you have now got a lot of experience of using the TVB service, so I would hope that the points made will either strike a chord – or provide food for thought.

If anyone has any other angles on using the service that they would like to share, then that would be great – but either way, I would encourage you all to read what has already been put up there, as it could very well improve the profitability of the service for you…

On a different matter, I’ve decided that I’m going to take a few days off next week…

Unbelievably, Cheltenham is now less than a month way, and I think I would benefit from recharging my batteries for a few days, in preparation…

The constant battle with the uncertainty of the weather is draining (as I’ve mentioned a few times !) – so skipping a few days at this point, doesn’t seem that bad an idea (plus it’s half term !).

It was fascinating to read an article by Tom Segal, in this weeks Racing Post Weekender, where he was bemoaning the impact of the recent wet weather.

Those of you who have read it, could be excused for thinking I’d dropped Tom a line, asking him to write it – the similarities between what he said and what I’ve been saying for the past few weeks are quite scary !

There is too much for me to reproduce it in full here, but I’ve pulled out a few paragraphs…

‘This incessant rain has had me pulling my hair out and it’s becoming increasingly hard to keep focused. There are so many different ways to approach finding winners and no one is better than any other, but my successes have always come from projecting ability not already apparent on to horses and them seeing them fulfil their potential.

The problem with all this rain is that races are not won on ability but on conditioning and being able to handle the ground and I think that is making life extremely difficult for punters of my ilk. We all have our different ways of interpreting ability. Some will use speed figure and others ratings but I prefer to watch lots of horses race and try to spot characteristics in them that stand out from the norm. Yet in bottomless ground non of those factors matter that much.

That is where the problems start when the ground’s this heavy. On good ground horses are able to beat inferior animals simply because they can run faster and fitness is not so much of an issue. On heavy ground its exactly the opposite and the fitness and conditioning of a racehorse is not easy to work out until after the race.

Therefore at this stage of the season on bad ground, we are betting blind to a certain extent’

Tom then went on to cite the victory of Harry Topper as a good example of what he meant – like I say, a bit scary !

This said, it’s one thing identifying a problem, but something else completely being able to address it – certainly in the short term…

Anyway, enough of all this, I’ve got a tip to justify – and hopefully one that can go some way to redressing the recent imbalance !

Fakenham

2:45

The first day of this TVB season now seems an eternity ago – and yet it is a day that is etched on the mind of most of us…

That’s not because it was the first day of the service –and certainly not because of the first tip I issued – but because of the first tip I didn’t issue..!

Hartside was a very strong mention that day (the price wasn’t quite where I wanted it to be in order for him to be a tip) – but that was slim consolation, when he came home first at 20/1.

What a start to the season that should have been !

With the benefit of hindsight, it was certainly a mistake not to have a small wager on him that day – and I promised myself that I would learn from that…
Well, roll on 3 months, and I have learnt !!

The similarities between Hartside and Dashing George are actually quite striking…

Most obviously they both represent the Peter Winks/Ryan Winks father/son combination…

Considering the Winks only have 5 horses in their care, they have already had quite an impact on this TVB season.

After not tipping Hartside at Wetherby, we were on him a few runs later at Haydock, when he was nailed in the shadow of the post.

That was almost a carbon copy of defeat that their Ruler of All suffered over the same course and distance a few weeks earlier, again when he was  TVB tip.

If those 2 results had gone our way, the official P&L would have been 11.5pts better off – fine lines indeed…

However, you’ll possibly be pleased to hear that we aren’t on Dashing George today, simply because of the trainer/jockey combination…

Just as when Hartside won at Wetherby, Dashing George is today having his third run for the Winks.

Again, as with Hartside, he showed nice progression from his first run to his second; and I would expect him to do the same from his second run to his third.

Such a situation is not unreasonable bearing in mind that these small stables don’t really have the facilities to get their horses cherry ripe at home…

Again, as with Hartside, the runs to get the horse ‘fit’ have also had the benefit of reducing it’s handicap mark – and Dashing George appears today as a relatively well handicapped horse.

In fact, he beat the much missed Plein Pouvoir off today’s mark, at Sandown, just 12 months ago…

Todays heavy ground and 2m5trip look perfect for Dashing George – so with him now hitting top form there seems no reason why he won’t run to his best…

Ofcouse, there is a danger that his best still won’t be good enough.

Despite the absence of Browns Brook, he still faces 3 rivals who are in very good form.

However, two of them (Full Ov Beans and Taffy Thomas) are moving up the handicap and up in grade, whist the third Elenika, had a tough enough race in defeat, last week…

Cleary, Dashing George is no certainty – but I do think he has a lot better chance than his odds imply.

Furthermore, I think it’s about time our luck with The Winks turned – let’s hope Dashing George is up to the responsibility !!

0.25pt win Dashing George 25/1 (Pre R4)

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Fake 2:45 Dashing George 25/1 (pre R4)