Daily write-up - Feb 16th

There is racing at Market Rasen and Navan this afternoon – plus a ‘bumpers for jumpers’ card at Kempton (featuring an appearance by My Tent or Yours !).

The Market Rasen card is an all hurdle affair (the chase track is too wet to race on) – and it holds little appeal.

The meeting at Navan is a different kettle of fish however, with a few interesting conditions races – and a couple of competitive handicaps…

I had my eye on two potential tips – but I’ve decided to just put up one of them.

I’ll explain my thinking shortly…

Just a final word on the discussion post on the blog, which has probably run its course…

There are 21 comments against the post now – so once again, we have created a very useful reference document.

I’ve put a link to it on the right hand side of the blog, to make it easy to access on an ongoing basis.

The last comment was put up by Ciaran. He has been with the service from day 1 (and that is day 1 of the early bird service – so getting on for 3 years).

I think Ciaran understands what I do as well as any of my subscribers – so his comments on how he tries to optimise the service are well worth reading…

Anyway, like I say, I think the subject can now be parked – so a final ‘thank you’ to all those who took the time to contribute…

I’ll remind you again when I send out the days review, but just to confirm that this will be my last day tipping, before next Saturday…

I’ll be away from home for some of the period and so will only be able to access emails etc. via my phone, during that time…

Onto the rationale for the days tip…

Navan

1:40

This looks quite an open race to me and consequently I felt St Maxime was worth a small risk at what looks very fair odds…

She is a relatively unexposed mare, who seems to be progressing quite nicely and should be able to run up to her best this afternoon.

Today will only be her sixth run over hurdles.

Following a victory on her hurdling debut at Galway in September 2012, she wasn’t seen again until the following April, when she ran a couple of disappointing races…

That saw her off the track again for quite a long period, with her only reappearing early in December at Punchestown.
She ran in a fair 2m4f race that day and was noted finishing quite strongly.

Maybe as a consequence, she was stepped up to 3 miles on her next outing – this time at Limerick late in December.
I’m sure a few of you will recall that race, as we were on Pencilhimin, who went from loser, to winner, back to loser, in the space of the final couple of furlongs of the race !

St Maxime ultimately finished in fifth place that day.

She was in the break away group of 4 rounding the home turn, but weakened on the run to the final flight…

I think she may he run a little too freely that day in a first time visor, so I’m hoping that she will be a little e more settled today – and that along with a slightly shorter trip, will hopefully see her get home better…

If she does, then I think she has every chance of success.
The form of the Limerick race has worked out really well, with most of the horses that were involved in the finish going on to frank the form.

One of those horses was Annie Oakley, who finished 13 lengths behind St Maxime that day and meets her on 4lb worse terms today. She will have her work cut out to turn round the form – so it’s a bit difficult to understand why she is half the price this afternoon…

The favourite for today contest is Inis Meain. He is a listed class performer on the flat (rated 110) – and based on that, is very attractively handicapped over jumps.

He even ran well last time out over hurdles, when third to Jetson in a better class contest that todays…

However, I remain far from convinced that he is going to appreciate having to lug around 11st10lb for 3 miles in the mud today – I’m more than happy to take him on at 6/4…

St Maxime on the other hand, will have just under 10 stone to carry (taking into account her riders claim), and when push to comes to shove, I’m hoping that will make all the difference !

0.5pt win St Maxime 12/1 (pre R4)

In the Boyne hurdle at 2:10, it will be interesting to see if Zaidpour is able to cope with the heavy ground at Navan, any better than he was able to cope with the heavy ground at Gowran (where he last run).

Doubtless connections will be hoping that he finds the heavy ground at the County Meath venue, more similar to the heavy ground he encountered at Leopardstown over Christmas...

In the circumstances, I think it’s best to watch ! (and await the post race analysis of soil types !!)

The Flying Bolt novice chase at 3:10, is a race close to my heart…

The brilliant Maralan won it in spectacular circumstances 6 years ago, giving me the biggest win of my life !

I doubt I’ll enjoy this years renewal quite as much !

I respect he chances of Bright New Dawn and Mallowney, but Some Tikket might provide a bit of value at around 6/1, to build on his last time out win at Gowran…

My old friend Cootamundra runs in the Ten Up chase at 3:45…

On ratings, he has a fair chance of victory – however, he wasn’t up to winning these kind of races last season, so it would be a little bit surprising if he was as an 11 year old…

That said, todays conditions will be perfect for him – and it doesn’t look the strongest of contests…

I would certainly expect him to cruise into contention on the turn into the home straight – though whether he is strong enough to come home in front, will be a different matter completely…

Finally, I did consider tipping Rafi De Triana in the handicap hurdle at 4:20…

He ran very well on his second run back, last time out – and if he builds on that, he must go close today…

I might have been tempted to take a chance on him – but then I watched a replay of his run at Fairyhouse last April…

He was left 3 lengths clear by a faller at the last, that day – and simply refused to run on…

Now that might have been a one off, so maybe I’m being a little harsh – but the fact he wears cheek pieces, suggest that connections know he’s a bit of a character…

I expect him to run well – and probably place – but I’m not prepare to take a risk on him coming home first, when he has a suspect temperament and is only available odds of 6/1 !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Nav 1:40 St Maxime 12/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Nav 3:10 Some Tikket (O)

Nav 3:45 Cootamundra (O)

Nav 4:20 Rafi De Triana (P)