Daily write-up - Feb 11th

The meeting scheduled for Lingfield was lost a few days ago – but Ayr survived its early morning inspection…

Where did this come from then ?!

A quick glance at the Ayr card yesterday afternoon and I was pretty sure that today would be a blank day: a couple of hours of closer inspection yesterday evening and we have tips in 3 of the races !!

It just goes to show that you shouldn’t always judge a card on first impressions…

I was maybe a little hasty leaving yesterdays Catterick card alone (though I might not have done if I’d known first thing that Son of Flicka was not going to run) – and hopefully I’ve got the call right by getting involved at Ayr today…

Time will tell, I guess – but I do like the shape of the 3 races that we are playing in – and I’m optimistic that I’ve found an edge in all 3….

Before I get on to the rationale, I just want to mention that I intend to create another discussion topic for the forum (time permitting !).

The previous 3 have all been well received, so lets hope that’s the case with this one.

I’ll send out an email once it’s been posted – and you can all go and add your thoughts/comments !!

Right, on to the rationale for todays raft of tips !!

Ayr

2:55

This is quite an open race – and I did think twice about playing in it. However, I think that both Thorlak and Wayne Manor have reasonable chances – and as such, were worth a small play…

Wayne Manor is the most solid of the pair.

He was unlucky not to win at Newcastle last time out. He was nearly brought down in an incident at the second hurdle – and then was hampered at the second last.

He lost ground on both occasions and yet was beaten less than a length at the line…

He has been raised 2lb for that run – but as it was his first for over 3 months, it is reasonable to expect some improvement from him.

The run also suggested that he had overcome the breathing problems that beset him in the early part of this season – if that is the case, he could be a well handicapped horse…

Having to carry top weight on a day like today, can’t be considered a positive – but Grant Cockburn takes off a very handy 6lb (and is extremely good value for it).

He also drops back 2 furlongs from last time, which should suit  - and provided his breathing holds up, he should be there or thereabouts this afternoon…

Thorlak is nowhere near as solid a selection – but he does have the potential to be different class to todays rivals…

The fact he is a half brother to the top class Azertyuiop, presumably explains why he was sent off 9/4 favourite for his racecourse debut.

That was in bumper that was won by the now 143 rated Green Flag, with our old friend, Indian Voyage in second place…

Throlak was very disappointing in that race – and but he maybe had a problem, as he was subsequently off the course for the next 18 months…

He reappeared in a hurdle race at Musselburgh in November - but made no show there. It was a similar story next time at Newcastle…

However, he put in a much better performance on his third and most recent hurdle run, at Kelso at the end of December.

He finished fifth behind Masterleaderman that day - but it was noticeable how much better he travelled on the soft ground (all of his previous runs had been on much quicker ground).

That run got him his handicap mark – and whilst 99 doesn’t look overly generous in the context of what he has actually achieved, the money behind him when he made his racecourse debut, suggests that back then, the expectation was that he would become a much better horse than that mark.

Like I say, he’s a risky one – but with plenty of potential and a glimmer of his ability, I think he compliments Wayne Manor quite nicely…

Of the other runners in the race, then I respect the chances of  Millers Reef. He was going well when clipping heels last time out at Southwell. The potential issue with him today, is the drop back in trip.

On the other side of the coin, I would be fearful that todays 2m4f might prove a bit too far for Scimon Templer. He ran really well last time at Newcastle – but seemed to be coming to the end of his tether over a trip half a mile less than todays…

W Six Times and Ancient Times both have fair chances - but we have effectively got around 4/1 about either Wayne Manor or Thorlack winning - and that strikes me as a decent bit of value…

0.25pt win Wayne Manor 17/2

0.25pt win Thorlack 17/2

4:00

This looks like a 2 horse race to me, between the top two in the race, Hotgrove Boy and Mumgos Debut.

I’m actually a little surprised that they aren’t a little shorter in the betting – though maybe the fact that they haven’t managed to win a race between them in 31 attempts so far, is giving the bookmakers cause for optimism !

If that is the case, then whilst I can understand where they are coming from, I think they might have misinterpreted the facts…

Whilst Hotgrove Boy and Mumgos Debut haven’t won a race between them – they have only run 4 times over fences. Those 4 runs have resulted in three seconds and a fall (when likely to fished third).

It’s fair to say that both horse look like becoming much better chasers than they were hurdlers (or bumper horses, or flat horses !).

It’s actually not that easy to pick between the pair, as they both have decent recent form (in the context of todays race) – but I just think the form shown by Hotgrove Boy in his last two races, is the stronger…

In the first of those (his chasing debut at Catterick), he was a 125/1 shot in a race that contained a couple of horse who were literally stones superior to him (in theory !). However, he gave both of them a jumping lesson and was only collared on the run into the home straight.

He actually stumbled and fell at the third last fence that day – though didn’t deserve to.

He would doubtless have made amends last time out, again at Catterick – but he ran into one in the shape of the well handicapped and progressive Proud Times.

He would be unlucky if that were to happen again today…

If it does, it will almost certainly be in the shape of Mumgos Debut.

The rest of the field look pretty limited and generally regressive…
The only other scenario that I can see leading to the downfall of Hotgrove Boy, is the pace in the race…

Both he and Mumgos Debut like to lead. Hopefully this won’t result in a damaging battle up front…

Provided that doesn’t happen, then I would be very optimistic that Hotgrove Boy can come home in front and finally break his 21 run losing streak !

0.75pt win Hotgrove Boy 11/4

4:30

This is probably the best race of the day – and I am happy enough narrowing it down to 3…

Proseccu is a 2 miler – so is likely to find todays 2m4f trip too far: conversely, Railway Dillon is a 3 miler, so is likely to find the trip too short…

Neither of the 2 Irish horses, Barneys Honour and Master First, look well enough handicapped – so that now leaves us with 3 to concentrate on…

And the Man and Wicklow Lad (and Ross Castle prior to his withdrawal) are very closely handicapped on their run at Ayr, at the beginning of January…

Wicklow Lad won that race and should confirm the form today, on exactly the same terms.
That said, And the Man has subsequently won at Ayr, whilst Wicklow Lad has been beaten at Wetherby.

And the Man was also finishing to some effect when they met – but I would still expect Wicklow Lad to come out on top, as it looked to me as if he was idling on the run in…

The bigger issue for Wicklow Lad, is that he likes to front run. Railway Dillon also like to front run - and as he is running over a trip short of his optimum today, he could very well make things difficult for Wicklow Lad…

Anyway, enough on the horses that are going to be battling out the places !

If he runs up to form today – and I can only see one reason why he might not – then despite his advancing years, Gansey might just be able to outclass todays opposition…

He is certainly used to running in much stronger races than todays - and whilst as a result he has to carry top weight of 11st12lb, he is a big strong horse and I’ll be surprised if he has any issue with that burden.

Todays ground and trip should also be perfect for him – the only real concern I have is whether he will have got over a tough race that he had last time out.

That was when he was nailed close home at Haydock, in very heavy ground.

However, it was just over 6 weeks ago – which hopefully has given him plenty of time to recover.

If that is the case, then I really think he will take the beating this afternoon against opponents who aren’t really in the same class as him and aren’t obviously progressive either…

0.5pt win Gansey 4/1

Here’s hoping for a great afternoon ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Ayr 2:55 Watne Manor 17/2

Ayr 2:55 Thorlack 17/2

Ayr 4:00 Hotgrove Boy 11/4

Ayr 4:30 Gansey 4/1