Daily write-up - Feb 9th

They race at Exeter and Leopardstown today – though it’s an all hurdle card at Exeter, with chase track currently waterlogged…

Despite that, there are 2 or 3 interesting races at Exeter – but that is nothing compared to the action on offer at Leopardstown…

If you only watch one more meeting prior to the Cheltenham festival, my advice would be to make it this one !

The races aren’t really there for betting on – but they are fascinating, non the less.

I certainly suspect that one or two of the Irish festival winners might be sighted at some point this afternoon….

Anyway, just a couple of small tips on the day for us – though I probably fancy both a little bit more than the staking suggests…

They were borderline 0.25-0.5pt calls – but a combination of the odds on offer and my current form, resulted in me taking the more cautious path.

If they should both happen to win and we only make 7 or 8 pts profit, I won’t complain too much – honestly !!

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my views on some of the days other races…

Leopardstown

3:50

I know I’m missing something here – I must be…

Roi Du Mee is a weak 22/1 shot, seemingly unfancied by everyone – and yet I think he’s got a cracking chance…

I’ve got to be honest: whilst the lack of confidence behind him was never going to stop me from tipping him, it has caused me to reduce my stake a little.

All things being equal, he would have been a 0.5pt win bet – but he’s been written off in every preview of the race that I’ve read !

I actually read one by Ruby Walsh last night, where he went as far as saying that victory for any 6 of the 7 runners today, would come as no surprise – but he thought that Roi Du Mee had no chance !

Clearly, Ruby and I view this race a bit differently !

First of all, Roi Du Mee is actually the third highest rated horse in the field – behind the 13 year old Tidal Bay and the professional bridesmaid, First Lieutenant.

More than that, he’s 5lb clear of the next highest rated (so the official handicapper evidently doesn’t think he has no chance !).

He actually had First Lieutenant well behind, when taking the JN Wine Champion chase at Down Royal in November…

That race was run over 3 miles in soft ground – a combination that Roi Du Mee is well suited to…

He was subsequently disappointing in the Grade 1 Betfair chase at Haydock – but showed far more when beaten my Marito at Tramore on New years day, over a trip that is probably now short of his best…

Roi Du Mee has a very good strike rate: he’s won 7 of his last 12 races – and 4 of them at graded level (including the Grade 1 at Down Royal).

Admittedly, he doesn’t appear to be of the same class as some of the previous winners of todays race – but that is true for most of todays field…

It’s possible to argue a case of sorts for most of the runners – but I don’t see any of them as being significantly stronger than Roi Du Mee… 

The fact that he apparently goes into todays race as the third string Gigginstown runner does not reflect well on him – but Bryan Cooper wouldn’t be the first jockey to make the wrong choice in a big race…

Bearing in mind how close I think this race could be, Roi Du Mee has an ace up his sleeve, which I’m hoping might prove decisive…

I reckon he could get an uncontested lead – and in any race, that is a huge advantage.

As a rule, he is also a good jumper, so if Davy Condon can get his fractions right, there must be a chance that he can steal this race from the front…

Here’s hoping !

0.25pt win Roi Du Mee 22/1

If the winner of this years triumph hurdle is to be Irish trained, it will most likely be contesting the opening race on the card…

The race was won last season by Our Connor – and as things currently stand, either Plinth or Ivan Grozny look most likely to follow in his footsteps.

That said, I would be more inclined to take a risk with Tiger Roll this afternoon at 18/1…

He won his only hurdle race to date at Market Rasen in November and was snapped up by Gigginstown for £80K at the Brightwells sale in December.

He makes his debut for Gordon Elliot today and may just be able to surprise his better fancied opponents.

I was half tempted by Good as Gold in the 1:45 race – but I just have some niggling doubts about her ability to last home over 2m3f in heavy ground…

She will doubtless still be travelling well entering the straight – but I fear the final couple of furlongs might do for her.

She should present a decent in running trade opportunity however, for any of you who like to play that game…

Whatever wins the Delotie novice hurdle at 2:10, is likely to be a warm order for one of the big novice event s at the Cheltenham festival…

As with the opener, there are two obvious candidates, in The Tullow Tank and Vautour.

I would slightly prefer the former – but there is a chance that Quickpick Vic could upset them both.

It should be another great race to watch, whatever the outcome…

There are only 3 runners for the Dr P J Moriarty chase at 2:45 – but it is still a cracker…

The 2m5f trip should be right up the street of the smooth travelling, sound jumping Don Cossack and I make him the one to beat.

Both Ballycasey and Carlingford Loch would prefer longer trips – so defeat for them today wouldn’t be the end of the world…

The presence of Baily Green in the 3:15 race comes as a bit of a surprise to me…

He is a top class chaser (graded class) so I’m not sure why his connections are running him over hurdles today…

I can only assume that its because they want to bag the 24K euro first prize – and I suspect that’s exactly what will happen !

I can see a couple of serious dangers in Blacklough and Reizovik, who should be able to pick up the pieces if Bailey Green doesn’t run to form.

But if he does, he should win.

Top Pick material IMO…

As with the opener, if Ireland are going to provide the winner of this years Foxhunter chase, he is likely to be running in the 4:20 race…

On the Fringe is the most likely winner – though Quel Esprit won the Hennessy just 2 years ago, so represents very high class form…

Again though, I would take them both on with Pandorama, who himself threatened to be a horse of the highest grade but his career was beset by injury problems and unsuitable ground conditions.

He needs the going to be bottomless to be at his best – well, he should get that today !!

Finally, Vigil and Volvalien look the most likely winners of the bumper that closes the card…

That said, keep a close eye on Icelip. John Keily has some top class bumper horses and if the market speaks in favour of this one, you ignore it at your peril !!

Exeter

1:55

We were on Supreme Bob last time out, when he made his chasing debut in a handicap at Ludlow…

He ran an OK race that day, after an early mistake, but was ultimately well beaten.

The form of the race looks quite strong however, as the winner, Buywise, has won twice since and when reassessed is likely to be on a mark around 30lb higher than he was that day…

The reason for supporting Supreme Bob in that race, was because he looked potentially well handicapped compared to his hurdling form in the UK.

He has run just twice in England: firstly when making a wining debut at Newbury last March and then when running with promise at Warwick in November.

Today he gets to run off a mark just 1lb higher than that which he won off at Newbury – that makes him look well handicapped.

I’m also quite happy that connections have chosen to revert back to hurdles after just one try over fences – that suggest to me that they simply didn’t feel he was up to the job (so we can effectively ignore the Ludlow run).

The biggest worry for Supreme Bob today, is probably the quality of todays opposition.

Whilst I wouldn’t be too fearful of the 3 outsiders in the race, a decent case could be made for his other 4 opponents in the race.

That said, they all have question marks of some sort over them – whilst we can be pretty sure that Supreme Bob will find todays trip and ground perfect…

He should certainly run a decent race then – only time will tell whether that is good enough to get him home in front…

0.25pt Supreme Bob 12/1 (pre R4)

There is a cracking race at 2:55, in which Fingal Bay makes his return to the track after 14 months off with injury…

He was rated 153 over hurdles in his novice season – so provided he is right today, he should be able to laugh at a mark of 142.

The fact that Richard Johnson takes the ride, presumably in preference to the other 3 Philip Hobbs horses, makes the case for him even stronger…

If he’s not back close to his best, then If in Doubt, Imperial Leader or Carols Destrier should all be able to take advantage – but if he is, he will win…

Another Top Pick !

Finally, Tarabella looks very interesting in the 4:00 race…

She looked unlucky not to win over fences last time out (she fell at the third last) and in the circumstances, it’s not surprising that her connections have put her back over hurdles today.

Based on her hurdle wins at the back end of last season, she should be up to beating some modest opposition today…

The third Top Pick of the afternoon !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leop 3:50 Roi Du Mee 22/1

Exe 1:55 Supreme Bob 12/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Leop 1:15 Tiger Roll (S)

Leop 1:45 Good as Gold (C)

Leop 2:45 Don Cossack (P)

Leop 4:20 Pandorama (S)

Leop 4:50 Icelip (S)

Top Picks

Leop 3:15 Bailey Green

Exe 2:55 Fingals Bay

Exe 4:00 Tarabella