Daily write-up - Feb 25th

2 meetings today – at Leicester and Catterick…

More than that, 2 meetings that are not going to be run on desperate ground.

Whether the ground will actually be ‘good to soft’, as described, is anyones guess – but at very least, it’s further evidence that things are moving in the right direction…

It’s amazing to think that in a fortnights time, excitement will be at fever pitch, with the first race of the Cheltenham festival only a few hours away.

Where has the season gone ?!

Just a quick reminder: I know that not all of you are form students, but for those that are, this is the time when the blog should really become of value…

It now stores write-ups and reviews for almost 4 months worth of racing – with comments about literally thousands of horses.

Many of those horses will be running over the next few weeks, so the ability to reference comments made about them earlier in the season should prove extremely valuable.

I’m certainly finding myself using the search facility more and more, to find previous thoughts on horses…

Anyway, on to today:

2 tips in 2 races. Both are quite similar in so much as they are horses who have seen better days – but who I’m hopeful have still got a few good days in front of them.

As you would expect at the prices, neither are certainties – but both have decent chances (particularly Qoubilai) – and if the money comes, I would consider that a positive for them both.

Here’s the rationale…

Leicester

4:40

I think this race is likely to be won by one of the top 4…

Royal Riviera and Full ov Beans, are the least risky options – though it was actually, Egypt Mill Spirit that I was first attracted to…

That said, there is a lot of guesswork with him – and whilst there is some guesswork with Carpincho, I don’t feel there is quite as much…

Certainly, if you could rewind 2 years, then Carpincho would be unbackable in this race off a mark of 104…

Back then, he was rated 130 and ran a creditable race behind Bless the Wings in a class 2 chase at Cheltenham…

Whilst it’s true that his rating then might have flattered him a little and been more down to potential than achievement, I’m not sure that his subsequent form warrants a drop of nearly 2 stone in the handicap…

That was all but demonstrated on his seasonal debut at Plumpton, back in November…

Carpincho was well backed that day and jumped and travelled like a horse much better than his rating (which at the time was 111).

He ultimately tired close home and only finished third – but he was beaten by a progressive horse in Beforeall (plus a possible lack of condition).

It would have been reasonable to expect him to improve for that run, but next time out he ran disappointingly at Bangor.

However, that was in a better class of race, over half a mile further and on soft ground.

In short, there were reasons to forgive that performance…

That said, it is interesting that Carpincho has been off the track for nearly 3 months since that run, suggesting something wasn’t quite right…

If that was the case, and connections have got him back to the form of his Plumpton run, then off a 7lb lower mark, on more suitable ground and over a more suitable trip, he has got to take some beating today…

My slight fear is his ability to get up the Leicester hill – but with Dickie Johnson in the saddle, I console myself that if the horse does start to tire, we have a jockey who (metaphorically speaking) will be prepared to jump off and carry him over the line !

So, all in all, I’m quite hopeful of a positive result J

0.5pt win Carpincho 8/1

I was initially optimistic that I might be able to find an angle into the first race on the card – but I can’t…

Faith Keeper is potential interesting – but you have to be a very forgiving sort…

The most likely winner is Oscar the Myth. But 3/1 on a horse that horse fallen on his only outing under rules in the past 20 months – I don’t think so…

I did think about giving Riddlestown a second chance in the chase at 2:40 – and he definitely warrants a good mention…

As I write this, you can get 14/1 in a place and I think it could be worth 0.25pt at that price…

He’s risky ofcourse because he ran poorly last time when we were on him (and on his 2 runs prior to that). However, I don’t think he went in the ground last time – and his course form back in December over a trip that was possibly a little too far, makes him of huge interest this afternoon (off a mark 7lb lower).

I would be fearful of Possibly Flora (another ex-tip) and consequently Me and Ben (who theoretically holds Possibly Flora) – but they are both half the price of Riddlestown…

Catterick

4:20

Tony Coyle is a trainer who first came to my attention 2 seasons ago, when I ran my ‘early bird’ project…

As is my want, I became obsessed by a horse called Lucky Landing that season – and I was convinced that he was far better than he kept on showing on the track…

I tipped him twice (unsuccessfully) and was on the brink of giving up on him, when he ran at Market Rasen in the February.

There was no particular reason to fancy him that day – other than my dogged stubbornness and the fact he had a new trainer, Tony Coyle…

The rest ofcourse is history…

Lucky Landing dotted up that day, in the style of all the best TVB tips (think Strange Bird ;) ) – and promptly followed up by beating a couple of horses rated 30lbs his superior, in a novice chase at Doncaster…

In short Tony Coyle extracted 30lb of improvement out of a horse previously trained by Donald McCain (who generally consensus who say, isn’t a bad trainer)…

Tim Vaughan isn’t a bad trainer either – but I’m optimistic that Tony Coyle will still be able to extract some improvement out of his ex inmate, Qoubilai…

In truth, he doesn’t really need to extract that much in order to win todays contest – as the horse is potentially well handicapped…

He’s been placed relatively recently in a couple of handicap chases off marks in the 120s – so off a mark of 108 today, he is clearly potentially well handicapped.

It is true that he is running over hurdles today – but his hurdling technique is sound  (touch wood !) so I see no reason why he can’t operate at roughly the same level in both disciplines…

Probably the most interesting aspect today, will be how Qoubilai copes with the 3 mile trip…

He’s never run further than 2m6f before – but Coyle clearly thinks that he has the stamina to get further (and possibly improve for it).
He has fitted a hood to the horse to try and settle him (he can be headstrong) and based in the evidence of his 2 runs so far for Coyle, there is good reason to believe that 3 miles is indeed within his compass..

On his first run in a chase over 2m4f at Catterick, he stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth; whilst his subsequent run in a jumpers bumper at Southwell also gave me reason to think that he will get todays trip.

If you look at the horse’s PTP form from the early part of his career, then he won over 3 miles (and fell when looking likely to win over the same trip), so I really do think that Coyle could be onto something today…

Time will tell ofcourse, but I’m quietly optimistic ;)

0.5pt win Qoubilai 7/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leic 4:40 Carpincho 8/1

Catt 4:20 Qoubilai 7/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Leic 2:40 Riddlestown (P)