Daily write-up - Feb 4th

Once again, there is just the one NH meeting today, at Market Rasen…

The lack of action isn’t being caused by the weather either (though it will likely be a factor later in the week !), there was only ever one NH fixture scheduled.

Quiet times indeed…

In fact, so much so, it felt a bit odd issuing a tip today !

It certainly feels a long time ago, that I was firing out tips left right and centre – these NH season are deceptively long !

Of course in truth, I should really have tipped yesterday…

Despite the fact that Royal Riviera was beaten, it would have been a good tip.

I knew he was the one to beat on form – and so it proved in the race. He looked sure to collect, but just wasn’t fluent enough over the last two obstacles…

Fine lines again – though maybe we were just on the right side of them yesterday (unless ofcourse you backed the horse – as I did !!).

Anyway, I’ve pulled the trigger today and issued a tip.

Regular readers won’t be overly surprised by it – though I have to be honest and say I don’t think it is a certainty (unfortunately !).

Here’s the rationale…

Market Rasen

3:20

We were on Mystifiable last time out, when he made his handicap debut, over hurdles in a contest at Uttoxeter in December…

I quite fancied him that day – and he ran a very good race, apparently just bumping into one in the shape of Ut Majeur Aulmes…

I thought at the time that it looked like quite a hot contest – and boy, have I been proven right on that count !

Just behind Mystifiable in third place, was Come on Annie. She has subsequently won her next two races hard held.

Half a length back from her in fourth place, was Leviathan. He won a decent race at Haydock, next time out.

The fifth placed horse hasn’t subsequently run – but both the sixth and seventh placed horses, Iron Butterfly and Sam Lord, have subsequently come out and won…

To say the form of the race has worked out well, is a bit of an understatement !

In ordinary circumstances then, I would be very keen on Mystifiable – however, I don’t think we are looking at ordinary circumstances here…

Firstly the Uttoxeter race was run nearly 2 months ago – that’s a long time for a horse to wait before return to the track.

That worry is exacerbated by the fact that Mystifiables trainer, Fergal O’Brien, hasn’t been in the best of form lately…

That said, he’s not had many runners – and he takes 4 to Market Rasen today. Apparently they all had a canter last week (he’s been struggling because of the weather), and he’s optimistic of a decent showing (as am I !!).

There are two other big concerns with Mystifiable: firstly, he is being sent over fences for the first time today – and secondly todays ground may be softer then ideal…

So there we have it: a horse that could be very well handicapped; but that could also need the run from a stable in questionable form, on unknown ground – over fences for the first time. How should play that one ?!

Simply, if I look at the field, I see one significant danger, in Benefit Cut – and 4 horses who Mystifiable should be able to beat (all things being equal).

In a 6 horse race, if all the horse had an equal chance of wining, you would expect odds of 5/1 about each runner.

I see one serious danger to Mystifiable – and yet we can get 4/1. I think that is worth a risk…

That said, I do think that Benefit Cut deserves to be favourite. His last 2 runs have been very good - and he certainly sets a decent standard on the form of his last time out ran at Ascot.

However, he did have a hard race on heavy ground, that day – and it is impossible to know what that’s taken out of him.

Certainly, if we were on Benefit Cut, I’d be very fearful of Mystifiable !

0.5pt win Mystifiable 4/1

There’s’ not a lot else to get excited about on the Market Rasen card – though B365s initial offer of 4/1 about Divine Intavention in the chase at 3:50, has the potential to go down as one of the ricks of the season !

Divine Intavention finished second on the Foxhunters chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival. Admittedly, he was lucky to finish second – and he was beaten a long way – but he gets to run off a mark of just 109 today – and is now handled by a professional trainer…

Based on the mark of the winner of the Foxhunters (Salsify), Divine Intavention could have well over a stone in hand of his current mark.

Furthermore, the early favourite for todays race, Honest John, is a horse who has an injury plagued past (and who disappointed last time out).

Despites some potential concerns over both the horses fitness and todays ground, if the 4/1 was still available, we would be piling into Divine Intavention today.

However the current 6/4 is far more realistic – and if the stable fancy him it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go off odds on…

Early prices hey, don’t you just love them !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

MR 3:20 Mystifiable 4/1

Mentions

MR 3:50 Divine Intervention (P)