Daily write-up - Feb 7th

Only the meeting at Kempton has managed to survive the weather today – but it’s a decent enough card for a mid-week, with 3 or 4 interesting races…

Almost as soon as I saw the declarations yesterday, I was sure that I would want to be with Nozic today.

It was therefore quite frustrating, to have to watch his price gradually reduce yesterday evening.

It’s a feeling that I am pretty familiar with now, however – so I set it in my mind that I would tip him at 6/1 or greater.

A best price of 8/1 this morning was therefore quite acceptable…

Clearly he was very strong in the early market today – but I’m pretty sure that was just because he had been put in at too big a price.

I don’t expect his price to crash in the same way as that of Indian Voyage (this is a very different situation) – but I do expect him to run a big race and go very close indeed…

Ofcourse, he’s not the only tip of the day – I’ve taken a small punt on Adrenalin Flight at insulting odds, in a later race – but he is the main tip of the day. Make no mistake about that…

Anyway, enough on the prices – here’s the rationale for supporting the horse…

Kempton

2:30

First of all, let me get the negatives on the table…

Nozic is a 13 year old gelding, who is clearly past his prime and has been pulled up in 3 of his last 6 outings. Furthermore, the favourite for todays race, is trained by – you guessed it - our dear friend Venetia…

Those of a weak disposition should run for cover now !

I feel it is important to get those facts out first, because I honestly believe that the reasons for backing him are so strong, by the time I’ve finished listing them you are going to wonder why he isn’t an odds on shot today !

First of all, Nozic won this very race last season (when he was 12 years old !) in a canter, by 13 lengths. As a result of that win, his handicap mark was raised to 128.

Today he gets to run off a mark of 110 (11lbs lower than the mark that he won off last season)… 

Obviously, when horses deteriorate, it is reasonable that their handicap marks are reduced – and Nozic probably isn’t quite as good now as he was 12 months ago – but if his latest run at Warwick is anything to go by, he’s not far off…

That took place, just under a month ago at Warwick, and Nozic ran a good race, to finish 4^th in what looked at the time to be a relatively strong race for the grade…

Well, time has subsequently proved it to be an exceptionally strong race for the grade.

The easy winner, Dare Me, hasn’t subsequently run – but he did get a 15lb hike in the ratings for his win.
However, 5 of those that finished behind him that day have subsequently run – with 3 of them winning and 1 finishing an honourable second (just in front of Lucky Sunny, who represents Venetia in todays race).

In short, the form of that race looks red hot.

Yet, despite finishing in front of 2 of those winners, Nozic has been dropped 2lb in the handicap – nice…

So, as you can see, purely on the book, Nozic seems to have a very good chance (both on recent form – and on past form) – but there is more to his case than that…

There can be little doubt that he will have no issues with todays conditions - 2 miles in heavy ground, on a sharp track.

His win in this race last season, confirmed his liking for course and distance- and he has performed with credit on numerous occasions, on heavy ground.

However, the conditions aren’t going to be anywhere near as suitable for most of his opponents:

I would be concerned about the ground and the fact he’s had a recent run, for Notarfbad;

I would be concerned about the ground and the trip for Overclear;

I would be concerned about the handicap rating and the lack of a recent run for Ted Dolly;

And I would be concerned about the trip for Paddy the Stout.

I would also be concerned that connections of Ultragold are clutching at straws, dropping him in trip; whilst Lucky Sunny looks solid enough – but if his last time out third at Catterick is the benchmark, I’d be happy enough to take that on…

The icing on the cake for Nozic, is the return of the blinkers…

He has been successful in them before - and it suggests to me that connections are really going for it today.

Ofcourse, he might not win – plenty of 8/1 shots (or even 6/1 shots) don’t – but trust me, he is a very good bet indeed.

If I were to nominate a danger in the race, it would be Paddy the Stout.

He is well handicapped – and has run eye-catchingly the last twice. There is also money for him this morning – which could be significant.

However, he just doesn’t strike me as a 2 miler – particularly on a sharp course like Kempton.

If he’s still in touch on the turn in I’ll be a bit concerned - but hopefully Nozic will have burnt him off by then J

0.75pt win Nozic 8/1

4:10

Despite what the early market suggested, this looks quite an open race to me – and therefore backing an outsider in it has a fair amount of appeal…

I can fully understand why  the 3 markets leaders are priced up as they are – all three have the kind of ‘sexy’ profiles, that punters get attracted to:

Triangular is well handicapped on old form and made a nice comeback for a new trainer last time at Doncaster; Court Victory is an unexposed novice running of a fair looking mark, who ‘could be anything’; and Summary Justice is trained by Venetia (that tends to be enough of a justification, at the moment !) – but purely on form I’m not sure they deserve to be that much shorter than some of their rivals…

In fact, when I first looked at the race, the two that caught my eye were the top weight, Midnight Appeal and the bottom weight, Adrenalin Flight.

I could argue a case for both – but at twice the price and carrying 25lb less, I felt happier siding with the latter (and that is ignoring any slight reservations concerning the well being of Alan Kings horses)…

Adrenalin Flight is a relatively young, progressive horse – who should have no issue with either trip or ground – and who seems to be quite fairly handicapped.

He ran disappointingly last time out – but that was over a marathon trip in atrocious conditions at Plumpton - I’m prepared to forgive him that run…

And if you do, then you see a horse with a very solid chance – trading at quite a big price…

As I inferred when I issued the tip, I might have been inclined to put him up EW – if I could have been sure that the current 8 runners would go to post.

I can see no reason why he won’t run his race – but I can see reasons why a few of his rivals might not…

I settled on win only however, because one NR would mean getting paid out on only first and second – and that is quite a compromise to take.

Let’s hope that Adrenalin Flight manages to prove himself up to the task and come home in front…

0.25pt win Adrenalin Flight 16/1

I’ll be keeping an eye on Xaarcet in the opener…

He didn’t take to fences - and now get the heavy ground that he thrives on. The booking of a 10lb claimer is also an interesting move. The trouble is, I think he needs further than todays 2 mile trip…

Whilst in the 3:05 race, Coup De Grace was the one that caught my eye.

Unfortunately he has caught everyone else’s eye as well and is just a 5/1 shot.

Obviously that won’t stop him winning – but in a 14 runner novice handicap, it does stop him from offering any value…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 2:30 Nozic 8/1

Kemp 4:10 Adrenalin Flight 16/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:30 Xaarcet (C)

Kemp 3:05 Coup De Grace (P)