Daily write-up - Feb 8th

3 meetings have survived the weather today: at Newbury and Warwick in the UK – and Naas in Ireland…

Apparently we are currently experiencing the wettest winter in 250 years – tell me about it..! 

If it weren’t a Saturday, I’m damn sure that the meetings at Newbury and Warwick would have been abandoned days ago.

They were pumping water off the course at Warwick yesterday afternoon – I can only imagine what the going will be like there this afternoon…

And that’s the problem in a nut shell…

The state of the ground is one of the most important variables when assessing a race – and we’ve got to guess at it.

Sure we know it will be heavy – but is that heavy, sticky – or heavy, sloppy…?

We’ve also no idea how each particular race will unfold.

Will jockeys of confirmed front runners try to force the pace regardless of the conditions (and doubtless pay for their valour later in the race): or will they try and preserve the energy of their mounts, even though they know they are compromising their chances by forcing them to race in a manner that contradicts their natural tendencies…

In short, the weather has introduced a whole new layer of variability on a puzzle that can be tricky enough to solve at the best of times…

Ofcourse, I have the option not to tip – and you have the option not to bet – at least until conditions improve a little.

But whilst you may very well choose to exercise that option, I find it a bit more difficult to be a tipster who doesn’t tip !!

Anyway, I know I’ve gone on about this area a lot lately – and I apologise for that. It’s just difficult to not get drawn in, when every morning and every selection seems to be shrouded by uncertainty…

Ultimately, I decided on 6 tips today, in 5 races…

I’ve resisted the temptation to find any ‘certs’ – and instead have gone for a few horses at decent prices, which I believe have got a chance of winning.

Again, I am playing at big prices (only one of them is in single figures), so expectations need to be realistic.

To combat that however, we are playing with relatively small stakes - and one winner will see a profit on the day !

Here’s the rationale….

Newbury

1:50

The market for this race is dominated by 3 upwardly mobile horses: Andy Kelly, Upswing and Rydon Pines.

I can see the argument for each – and it’s quite possible that one of them will improve sufficiently to take this contest – but they all still have a little bit to prove.

Not least would be their stamina, over what is likely to be a gruelling 3 miles. In the circumstances therefore, I am prepared to take them on…

Prior to his last outing, Moorlands Mist would have been considered upwardly mobile…

On his previous outing, he had hacked up in what has turned out to be one of the strongest hurdle races runs this winter…

The horses that finished behind him at Chepstow in December subsequently came out and won race after race, making the form look exceptionally strong.
It was therefore a big disappointment that on his next run, Moorlands Mist finished a well beaten fifth, over the same course and distance.

Immediately after the race, the reason put forward for his poor showing was the heavy ground…

If that was the case, then he is likely to be in trouble today !

However, Philip Hobbs has since gone on record as saying that he doesn’t know why Moorlands Mist performed badly that day.

Ultimately, you pay your money, you make your choice…

My choice is to ignore that run. It came just 3 weeks after his win, so maybe he was still feeling the effects of his efforts. I don’t know…

However, what I do know, is that if you take out his latest run, there is no way he would be a 14/1 shot today.

A young, progressive hurdler, proven over todays trip, he would likely be vying for favouritism with his upwardly mobile friends.

Let’s just hope that last time was an aberration…

0.25pt win Moorlands Mist 14/1

2:25

A bit like with Moorlands Mist, if you buy into Vino Griego today, you have to be prepared to forgive his last time out run…

We were on him that day, when he ran no sort of a race in the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock.

I can’t offer an explanation for that poor run – but they do happen, particularly at certain courses (and Haydock would now be one), so I am just going to ignore it…

Katenko also ran in that race – and ultimately finished fourth.

Vino Griego had to give Katenko 2lb in that race (ignoring his riders claim) and I fancied him to do that – he has to give him a further 2lb today, but that wouldn’t have put me off.

In short, if I fancied Vino Griego last time, it’s difficult for me not to fancy him today (assuming I’m prepared to forgive the last run).

That said, I think Katenko rates a big danger today – but then he is a fifth of the price of Vino Griego.

I am also fearful of Al Ferof – but he is even shorter in the betting !

I’m not quite so worried about the other 2 mind, as I think Harry Topper is just too ponderous over his obstacles (even though Newbury should suit him better than Cheltenham) and Walkon just doesn’t look up to the job…

So, we’ve just got the 2 to beat !

I really can’t see Al Ferof being given too hard a race, in heavy ground, with Cheltenham just over a month away.

Katenko is a different matter – and I suspect the will prove a tough nut to crack.

However, the way the race is likely to be run, should see him as a sitting duck.

Vino Griego has enormous talent – and if he is still on the premises turning in – and provided he fancies it today, then I think he could be quite capable of springing a surprise !

0.25pt win Vino Griego 16/1

3:35

It’s maybe not too surprising, but this race looks an absolute minefield…

I have to admit that I was half tempted to swerve it completely, as victory for any one of a dozen or more horses wouldn’t come as a surprise – but I eventually decided to take a speculative punt on a couple at ridiculous prices…

Unfortunately, Tom Segal beat me to the punch with the first of them, Poet – but hopefully most of you still a managed to secure a decent enough price…

Based on hurdles form Poet doesn’t have much of a chance today…

He has already been well beaten twice this season – and whilst there were excuses for both defeats, if the case for him was based purely on his hurdling form this season, he would have no chance.

However, it is not.

Poet is a very decent (group class) performer on the flat. His rating in that sphere is currently 110 – just 12lb lower than his rating over hurdles. Generally, you would expect horses who show similar levels of ability over both flat and jumps, to have a rating around 40lb higher for the winter game. In short, based on his flat rating, Poet is well handicapped over hurdles.

The other things in his favour are that his best performances – both on the flat and over hurdles - have come at Newbury on heavy ground.

In short, if he is ever going to produce a big performance over hurdles it is likely to be today ! 

The other horse I want on side, at an even bigger price, is Jumps Road…

My original intention was to put him up win only at 40/1. However, when I saw that VC bet were offering twice that price, I figured it made more sense to half the bet – and cover it by going EW…

As with Poet, he comes with risks (and requires a creative imagination !).

He had looked both limited and exposed, until his penultimate run at Cheltenham, when it briefly appeared that he was going to give The New One and Zarkandar a run for their money in the International hurdle at the December meeting.

I have to admit, that run looked a bit of a fluke, but then he followed it up with another decent run behind Melodic Rendezvous and Ptit Zig at Haydock.

That run was easier to explain by the book – but the way he travelled in the race, again suggested that Jumps Road might be a bit of an improver…

Obviously his thoroughly exposed profile means that he has been ignored by most – but I think he could well be capable of a bold showing.

Of the market leaders, then Dell Arca and Smashing were the two that most tempted me – but on balance, I feel more comfortable taking risks at bigger prices.

0.25pt win Poet 33/1

0.125pt EW Jumps Road 80/1

There are also a couple of interesting small field chases on the card.

In the first of them, the Game Spirit chase, I would fancy Module to get the better of the novice Dodging Bullets.

If he had gone out to bigger than 5/2 this morning, I might have been tempted. However 85/40 was the best price on offer - and he has subsequently shortened to 7/4.

He’s no value at that price - but he is just about the most likely winner of the race…

In the novice chase at 4:10, I would be quite keen to take on Smad Place - though I’m not sure with which one…

My fancy was Mendip Express – but he’s just a 6/4 shot. At 11/4, Sam Winner is probably the better bet…

Warwick

1:35

It’s time for us to embrace Venetia.

For too long we have been battling against her, today is the day we get her onside !

Firstly, with Somemothersdohavem in the opener on the card.

This horse has only been with her since the summer (it was trained by John Ryan last season) and having shown very little on it’s debut for her at Kempton in December, it showed a lot more last time out at Doncaster…

That was over a trip 4 furlongs further than today and entering the straight at Town Moor, nothing was going better.

However, Somemothersdohavem had never run over a trip that far before, and simply, he appeared not to get home.

There is the slight possibility that he still needed the run that day – but either way, over half a mile less today, I think he will take some beating.

That is ofcourse, assuming he handles the ground – and there is a big question mark in that area.

However, I would say that is exactly what it is. There is no categoric evidence that he wont handle heavy ground – and his action suggests to me that he should go through it OK.

Time will tell I guess, but if he does struggle on heavy ground, he’ll be one of the very few that Venetia trains which does.

Let’s hope that isn’t a trigger for sods law to kick in !!

0.5pt win Somemothersdohavem 6/1

3:50

Like waiting for a bus – no Venetia horses tipped for weeks – and then two in an afternoon !

Yellow Ball really caught my eye last time out at Wincanton.

She looked like wining for most of the race that day – but ultimately didn’t quite get home over the 3m4f trip.

A drop back by 3 furlongs today, should help address that issue – and there is little doubt that she thrived on the heavy ground.

The biggest issue today therefore, are the obstacles that she has to face.

Last time out (and on her 2 previous runs in this country), she tackled fences – today she will be facing hurdles.

That introduces some uncertainty - however, she ran plenty of times over hurdle in he native France and seemed just as proficient over those.

Ofcourse, hurdles in France and hurdles in the UK are not quite the same thing – but she has at least proved her versatility obstacle wise !

The other big concern with Yellow Ball today, is the opposition…

There is no particular opponent that jumps out at me – more a number of unexposed potential improvers…

However, as if often the case, they are all now clustered at the head of the betting – meaning that the more exposed, less glamorous horses, are available at bigger prices than they probably should be…

Despite her connections, Yellow Ball is probably one such horse.

She is proven in the condition, will handle the trip, is in good form – and comes from a red hot stable.

There will be 11/1 shots with ticks in a lot less boxes running today, that’s for sure !!

0.5pt win Yellow Ball 11/1

Although held on the book, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hidden Identity get the better of Glens Melody and Mischievous Millie in the mare race at 2:05.

She was beaten less than a length by the pair last time they met over this course – and todays even heavier ground, should give her a sporting chance of turning that round.

It could certainly be argued that she offers a bit of value at 11/2…

I was sorely tempted by another Venetia horse, Brick Red, in the Kingmaker novice chase at 2:40…

He jumps well – and is likely to handle todays conditions better than favourite, Balder Success…

The trouble is, he is held by Balder Success on a line through Dark Lover - so that makes him difficult for me to tip, at just 3/1…

There is also a possibility that Lord of House could prove a fly in the ointment…

On balance, I decide to pass on the race…

I also decided to pass on the 3:15 race – though I got very close to tipping No Buts.

I think he’s the most likely winner – but that is assuming the race goes as I expect !

However, on heavy ground – with plenty of pace options in the race, that is far from guaranteed !

Rouge et Blanc is a danger – and I could also see Mr Cracker running a decent race.

If he gets into a nice rhythm – ideally in a prominent position, then No Buts will take some beating. But as I don’t know whether that will be the case, I’m not prepared to risk at the available odds.

Naas

Back over a more suitable 2 miles, I was tempted by The Shepherd King in the 2:55 race – but there is no margin in the quote of 5/1.

Similarly I could make a strong case for Luddsdenene in the 4:05 (in fact, I could probably bore you rigid !) – but with an unexposed JP horse in the field, he can only be a watching brief at 7/2…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:50 Moorlands Mist 14/1

Newb 2:25 Vino Griego 16/1

Newb 3:35 Poet 33/1

Newb 3:35 Jumps Road 80/1

Warw 1:35 Somemothersdohavem 6/1

Warw 3:50 Yellow Ball 11/1

Mentions

Warw 2:05 Hidden Identity (O)

Warw 2:40 Brick Red (P)

Warw 3:15 No Butts (P)

Naas 2:55 The Shepherd King (P)

Naas 4:05 Luddsdenene (P)