Daily write-up - Feb 24th

They race at Plumpton and Musselburgh this afternoon – the latter venue having survived an unexpected early morning inspection, called as a result of a huge amount of rain hitting the track overnight…

Whilst it’s obvious good that racing will take place at the Scottish venue, the races have been absolutely decimated by non runners.

In the big race of the day, there are now 7 absentees, meaning that just 3 will go to post.

That must be a huge disappointment to the racecourse executive - but it is understandable as many of the runners had headed north in search of better ground…

We clearly aren’t yet out of the woods (or should that be floods !) weather-wise, just yet…

From a betting perspective, the card simply has to be swerved…

It was my original intention to swerve the Plumpton card as well, when I first looked at it last night…

However, I decided to indulge myself instead and see if I could find an angle for one of the handicaps…

Initial investigation suggested that the 4:10 race was the one most likely to yield an edge – and after an hour or so of video watching, a potential selection appeared !

I have to say that for all I love the big races & meetings – I also love trawling through the runners in a small race trying to see if I can find something that has been overlooked by the masses…

Whilst on the subject of big races and big meetings, it was massively disappointing to read that Sprinter Sacre will be missing this years festival…

An equine freak, I honestly think he’s the best racehorse I’ve ever seen.

However, his physique always suggested that keeping him sound would be a challenge – and so it is now proving.
I hope he manages to recapture the majesty of last season – but, hand on heart, I’m not sure he ever will…

Anyway, enough of the rambling - on to the rationale for the days tip !

Plumpton

4:10

This doesn’t look the greatest of races…

The top weight, Twopoundsofbutter, has shown very little in 3 maiden hurdles.

He could well improve for the step up in trip, the application of a tongue tie and booking of Richard Johnson – but he will need to !

The market will doubtless advise on his chances…

Favourite, Royaume Bleu is a completely different kettle of fish…

He is an exposed chaser, who would be more than capable of winning a race such as todays, off his current mark – if it were over fences…

Over hurdles however, it is a different matter. He might be up to the job – but it would be guesswork…

That said, he strikes me as the biggest danger in the race but I’m just hoping that he won’t quite be able to cope with Strange Bird…

Despite being 9 years old, Strange Bird has only been running under rules for 2 years – and in that time has only had 7 starts. She is clearly a bit of a late developer…

A bit like one of our old friends, Foritsa, she spent the first few years of her life in the PTP field. It didn’t do Foritsa any harm, and I’m optimistic that it’s not done Strange Bird any harm either…

Although she never won a point, she did manage to finish runner up on a couple of occasions, in races over 3 miles and in the soft – suggesting that she will have sufficient stamina for todays test.

She actually made her debut for current connections at Lingfield, just under 12 months ago.

That was in a mares novice hurdle, where she ran with promise to finish fourth…

It was the same story on her next outing – another fourth in another mares race. However it is interesting to note that the 3 horses who finished in front of her that day are now rated between 27lb and 39lb higher than her (and they didn’t beat her that far).

2 subsequent runs in handicaps have followed and whilst she has never threatened to win, she has run with a fair bit of credit in each.

It is therefore surprising to see that she gets to run off a mark of 73 today – a full 19lb lower than her initial handicap mark.

I honestly think that the handicapper has been a bit rash dropping her so quickly.

On her seasonal debut at Fontwell in November, she looked likely to win approaching the home turn, until either lack of stamina or lack of condition caught her out.

Whilst her subsequent run at Plumpton saw her beaten by a couple of upwardly mobile sorts…

She gets to race off the minimum weight today – and has the very talented Aidan Coleman on board…

I can’t see any way that she won’t run a big race – and whilst it is possible that the potentially well handicapped Royaume Bleu or the unexposed Twopoundsofbutter might get the better of her, she looks the solid call to me…

Fingers crossed that she can come home in front !!

0.5pt win Strange Bird 9/1

In the handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’ll be keeping a close eye on The Pier…

I tipped him on his penultimate outing at Leicester, but he ran a shocker…

He ran a fair bit better last time at Warwick – but finished weakly…

My concern would be that there is some physical issue. Otherwise, he is very well handicapped and more than capable of winning a race such as todays off his current mark…

Finally, in the 4:40 race, I couldn’t decide between the proven form of Bebinn – or the potential of Barton Rose…

Funnily enough, neither can the market, as they are 4/1 joint favourites !

Not really my kind of price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Plum 4:10 Strange Bird 9/1

Mentions

Plum 3:10 The Pier (S)