Daily write-up - Feb 15th

All 4 of todays scheduled meetings have somehow managed to survive the weather and they race at Haydock, Ascot and Wincanton in the UK – Plus Gowran Park in Ireland…

I don’t know why I’m surprise, really…

It’s been the same every Saturday so far this year: abandonments all week long with severe doubts over the Saturday fixtures – yet they have managed to pull through…

And, from an entertainment perspective, it’s a good thing: We don’t expect Premier league football matches to get abandoned any more – so why should the premier race meetings ?

Of course, from a betting perspective, it’s not necessarily such a good thing !

However, nobody is forcing us to bet on anything – we just need to make sure we tread carefully…

And that is precisely what I’ve done today: small tips in 5 races – all have a  chance – but non are certainties.

If we get a bit of luck, we will doubtless be smiling come 5:00pm – if we don’t, the damage will be minimal.

Fingers crossed !!

Just a reminder that, whilst there are a couple of meetings scheduled for tomorrow, they don’t look great. I’ll check them out later this evening – but if there are no tips tomorrow, then today will be the last time you receive any tips from me for a week !

I’m going to take Monday to Friday off – back in time for a full set of race meeting next Saturday J

Right, on to the rationale for todays tips…

Haydock

2:55

I’ve got to be honest, victory for almost any runner in this race wouldn’t surprise me…

As a consequence, I maybe should have swerved it – but victory for one particular horse would have been a bit too much to bear (if we’d not been on him !) – therefore, Loch Ba had to be a tip…

There are two reasons why I felt that we must be with Loch Ba today – one historical and the other more recent…

Historically, he was the first ever official TVB winner when he won on his seasonal debut at Kempton last season. As a result, he will always have a place in my heart…

This season we have already been on him 3 times – and he has only had 4 runs !

On two of those occasions he finished runner-up – whilst on the third, he was unplaced in the Hennessey…

I actually let him go untipped on his last run, in the Classic chase at Warwick – but that run is the main reason why we are on him today !

He only finished fourth in that race – but he made a shocking blunder just after half way and in the circumstances did remarkably well to end up as close as he did…

We weren’t on him that day, was because I had severe doubts about  his ability to stay the 3m5f trip – but the way he finished his race, showed that concern was unfounded…

He runs today over precisely the same trip – and whilst the ground will probably be a little softer today, that is pure guesswork on my behalf !

He also runs from a mark 2lb lower than his mark at Warwick – which very importantly, means that he will have just 10st7lb on his back…

Simply, he looks sure to run a very big race today – hopefully one good enough to see him home in front…

As I inferred, dangers in the race are almost too numerous to mention.

If force to nominate a couple, I would go for Emperors Choice (trained by Venetia !) and Well Refreshed (who won this race last year).

Whilst at bigger prices, Soll and Le Reve look potentially interesting…

0.5pt win Loch Ba 10/1

3:30

You’ll have to excuse me here: in a race choc full of young improvers, I simply couldn’t resist a little tickle on old timer, The Knoxs, at a big price…

His price was even bigger yesterday evening (he opened up at 33/1) – but the race wasn’t fully priced up until this morning…

The Knoxs began his career with Howard Johnson and quickly established himself as a decent novice hurdler- and then decent novice chaser…
When Johnson was warned off, The Knoxs transferred into the care of Paul Nichols and looked set to take his career to another level – but in never quite materialised.

After a couple of season with Nicholls, he moved to the stable of Sue Smith for the start of the current season.

He was immediately pitched in at the deep end, running in graded hurdle races at Wetherby and Haydock.

He didn’t show too much on the first occasion – but was still in second place and travelling nicely in the fixed brush hurdle race at Haydock behind Gevrey Chambertin, before a bad mistake at the third last saw him quickly pulled up…

He’s run 3 more times since then – and shaped with distinct promise on two of those occasions: over hurdles at Sedgefield; and last time out over fences at Musselburgh…

Yet despite running with significant promise on 3 occasions so far this season, his handicap mark continues to drop.

Today he gets to run off a mark of 127 – 16lb lower than his mark at he start of the season and 5lb lower than the mark off which he hacked up on his hurdling debut for Nicholls.

Clearly he is potentially very well handicapped – provided he retains sufficient of his old ability.

That is always a tricky call to make – however, the promise in his recent runs suggest that it is worth a small risk that he does.

Let’s hope he can justify my faith…

0.25pt win The Knoxs 20/1

4:35

In a race where there are doubts and question marks over most of the runners, I could be really keen on Sergeant Dick, if it weren’t for his last time out run at Kempton…

Prior to that run, he had appeared to be a progressive horse – so I’m taking the chance that his run at Kempton was just an aberration…

And in fairness, it can be explained away to a large extent, by a mistake he made at a crucial point in the contest.

Normally a very slick jumper, he met the fourth last fence wrong and lost all momentum as a consequence. He went from disputing the lead, to sixth place and under pressure and simply wasn’t able to recover the situation as the rest of the field quickened away from him.

He did plug on late to take sixth place - but it was still a disappointing effort.

Particularly in the context of his two previous runs this season, which had shown immense promise.

In the first of those he was an ultra game winner at Ffos Laa, where his sound jumping technique enabled him to fend off both Wychwood Brook and HandsupforDetroit (both of whom have gone on to better things).

He followed that up with an even more creditable run behind Easter Day at Newbury.

That one has pretensions to being better than a handicapper, but Sergeant Dick matched him down the home straight, with his jumping once again holding up under tremendous pressure…

Bearing in mind those two runs, I think it worth giving Sergeant Dick another chance, because if he can jump as he did at both Ffos Las and Newbury, then today opponents will have to go some to match him.

0.5pt win Sergeant Dick 8/1

The Rendlesham hurdle at 2:20 is a fascinating contest, with the proven top class stayer Celestial Halo taking on the up and coming novice Seeyouatmidnight and the mare, Mickie…

Based on official ratings, Celestial Halo should come home unchallenged – but it wouldn’t surprise me if that weren’t the case…

Mickie is probably the sensible bet – but Seeyouatmidnight is the more tempting option !

I was half tempted by Always Right in the Hunter Chase that closes the card…

He really caught my eye last time out, when I’m sure he would have won if he’d been fully fit.

Fitness shouldn’t be an issue today and based on his rating under rules, he should be far too good for most of these…

Ninetieth Minute is a theoretical danger – but I don’t think he will beat Always Right.

Sounds like a good justification for a Top Pick !!

Ascot

2:05

This is a really interesting race – and whilst I think that the right 2 horses head the betting, they both come with a fair bit of hype and are therefore shorter in price than should really be the case…

I have to admit that I’m a big fan of Many Clouds – but unfortunately it would appear that everyone else is too !

He fits the profile of the perfect ‘dark horse’ – but unfortunately, when he becomes the everybody’s dark horse, he ceases to be that dark !

Gevrey Chambertin is a completely different sort…

He is actually making his chasing debut today and whilst it can’t be denied that he was a very good hurdler – and is likely to make a very good chaser - it still need to be proven…

As a consequence, the next 3 (or 4 !) in the betting all offer some potential value – and of those 3/4 I’ve opted for O’Faolains Boy…

Over hurdles last season, he was superior to both Many Clouds and Gevrey Chambetin, with his fourth place in the Albert Bartlett at the festival earning him a mark of 143 over timber…

He made his debut over fences at Ascot just before Christmas and ran a race packed full of promise, to finish second to the race fit Easter Day.

O’Faolains Boy looked the most likely winner that day, until his lack of match fitness caught him out.

It was therefore not too surprising that he was fancied by many to make the most of the 7lb he received from the potential top class Taquin De Seuil in his next race at Haydock.

However he ran no sort of race that day, soon under pressure and struggling, he was pulled up not long after half way…

You have to think that something was amiss that day. The stable of Rebecca Curtis was struggling at the time – so maybe he had a bug. Whatever, it was clearly not his running…

Ofcourse as a result of it, there is a slight question mark over him today – but if that weren’t the case, there is no way he would be an 8/1 shot in receipt of 4lb from Many Clouds.

At the end of the day, you pay your money, you make your choice - and I think that O’Faolians Boy represent a bit of value this afternoon to bounce right back to form.

0.5pt win O’Faolains Boy 8/1

I would expect Un Temps Pour Tout to build on his British debut and win the opener on the card…

He could actually be a Top Pick – but there’s a possibility that he will be sent off a stupidly short price…

Keep an eye on him though – as I think he will win – and I think he will go on to better things…

Trying to bet early in the 2:40 race was nearly impossible due to all the uncertainty…

I think the race lies between Highland Lodge and Restless Harry – with a slight preference for the former..

However, he is favourite for the race –and comes with some risks – so on balance, I’m happy to pass (even with the market now stable !)

There is a danger that Heath Hunter could get to a backable price in this…

I can see the argument for a lot of his rivals- but I would still make him the one to beat (and he has plenty of potential for improvement).

He was 9/2 this morning and I wouldn’t tip him at that price – he is 6/1 as I write this however, and I would have been very tempted at that price…

Certainly if you are able to beat that, I would be inclined to take the risk…

I would expect Captain Chris to take the big race of the day, the Ascot chase at 3:50…

I’m still a little miffed that he didn’t run in the King George, because can’t believe he wouldn’t have been placed – but I guess I need to move on !

Simply, he should have too much class for todays field, with trip, track and ground all near perfect for him…

Everyone seems to want to play the game of picking one to follow him home. My choice would be Rolling Aces - but at a respectable distance !

  

Wincanton

1:20

The Wealerdealer is a horse that I spotted when he made his debut over hurdles at Exeter back in November.

A four time winner in the PTP field, he ran with a lot  of promise that day and looked to me like a horse to follow, once he had been given a handicap mark.

Two less promising runs over shorter trips, at Taunton followed, and The Wealerdealer was given a mark of 101…

Based on his last two runs, that doesn’t look overly generous – but if you look at the form of his first run, it doesn’t look too bad at all…

3 of the 4 horses that finished in front of The Wealerdealer that day, have gone on to frank that form in no uncertain terms. The winner of that race, Rydon Pines was unlucky not to collect a decent race last Saturday off a mark of 125 (he is now up to 128); whilst the second and third, Flemenson and Junction Fourteen have gone on to even better things and are now rated 130 and 137 respectively…

That all helps put The Wealerdealer rating of 101 into some perspective (even allowing for the fact he was well beaten that day).

The other thing that attracts me to The Wealerdealer today is the array of headgear that he is wearing for the first time (blinkers and a hood !) – plus the booking of a very decent claiming rider…

All those facts – coupled with him stepping back up in trip to a more suitable 2m6f on heavy ground – suggest to me that he is likely to run a huge race today…

Ofcourse, this theory probably needs to be supported (or contradicted !) by the market – so I suspect that we will know our fate a couple of mins before the off.

Hopefully by then, The Wealerdealer will be around 3/1 – and we can all start to feel just a little bit smug. If he hits double figures on the other hand, don’t expect him to get too much coverage in todays review !!

0.5pt win The Wealerdealer 6/1

Ut Majeur Aulmes runs in the 3:05 race – and I guess I would expect him to win…

The only thing is, I expected him to win last time out (over the same course and distance) and he let me down then. Worse still, he runs off a mark 3lb higher today…

My theory at the time of his last run was that the course didn’t particularly suit him – if I was right, then he is going to struggle today.

Either way, despite the strength of his Uttoxeter win, he couldn’t be a tip today (or even an official mention).

Gowran Park

With the defection of Unoccupied from the 3:00, just the one race of interest at Gowran…

Federici looks the one to beat in the handicap hurdle at 4:40 – but keep an eye out for Jubilee Year.

He was an unbelievably easy winner of a handicap hurdle at Tipperay last year.

True, it was a poor race – but winners don’t come much easier than that.
He’s had excuses for his 2 subsequent defeats so remains of interest today (even off a 10lb higher mark).
He’s too risky to make a tip – but at the price, he could still be worth a tiny interest…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Hayd 2:55 Loch Ba 10/1

Hayd 3:30 The Knoxs 20/1

Hayd 4:35 Sergeant Dick 8/1

Asc 2:05 O’Faolains Boy 8/1

Winc 1:20 The Wealerdealer 6/1

Mentions

Hayd 2:20 Seeyouatmidnight (S)

Asc 3:15 Heath Hunter (P)

Gowr 4:40 Jubilee Year (S)

Top Picks

Hayd 5:05 Always Right