Daily write-up - Feb 27th

3 meetings this afternoon, at Ludlow and Taunton in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

Once again, I found myself last night, splitting my time between studying todays cards and those for the Cheltenham festival….

You can argue it all ways, but with 27 possible betting opportunities in 4 days at Cheltenham, I feel I need to be ahead of the game…

I have a pretty haphazard way of studying for the festival – just following form lines and runners that catch my eye. However, I make notes as I’m going along, so come the day (or more specifically the night before) I’ve generally got a very good idea of what I want to be backing…

Obviously you have to wait until nearer the time to know the precise shape of the field – and the ground conditions – but I would like to think that I’m ready to strike as soon as there is clarity on those final few variables…

Whilst on the subject of the festival, it’s worth reminding you all of the tremendous offers, that most of the bookmarks put on for the 4 days…

There really are some stand out deals – and whilst they tend to be specific to a particular bookmaker, they really shouldn’t be missed….

- B365 are already offering a NRNB concession on all races.

As you would expect, there are few ricks but the 14/1 on Morning Assembly in the 4 mile chase, looks to me like excellent insurance for our ante post bet on the same horse for the RSA…

- Paddy Power are apparently offering money back on the placed horses in the supreme novice hurdle – which again looks like an offer that has to be taken up.

It means that if you back Irving and Vautour with them and they finish first and second, you’ll win on the winner – and get your money back on the loser !

- Finally, Annie Power is out to 10/1 NRNB in the champion hurdle. I guess that suggests she won’t be going for the race, but if she does. I would consider it an excellent bet…

It’s probably worth taking the 9/1 with Ladbrokes as they will also give you your money back if Hurricane Fly finishes first or second in the race (though presumably not if he finishes second to Annie Power !!).

I obviously can’t make any of these official bets – but the point is that they are out there and should be taken up by as many of you who are able.

As always, if you have any questions about any specific potential bets, just drop me a note and I’ll be happy to pass an opinion J

With regard to today, then there are 2 tips – one at Ludlow and one at Taunton.

Both are trained by Evan Williams – and if I’m honest, I’ve had about as much success tipping his horses as I’ve had tipping those of his namesake, Venetia !

Still, I’m never one to duck a challenge !

I feel both have decent chances – and more importantly have been under rated by the market and hence represent a bit of value.

Let’s hope they can convert that value into profit !!

Taunton

3:10

As I mentioned yesterday, contrary to popular opinion, Venetia Williams isn’t in great form at the moment…

She had 6 runners yesterday – and all of them were beaten. 4 of them went off favourite – and non of the 6 were priced bigger than 5/1.

She has saddled just 1 winner from her last 29 runners – and 12 of those have gone off favourite, with 20 of them starting at 5/1 or less…

The media will pick up on it shortly (once she hits the cold list !) – but for a little while at least, her horse will continued to be over-backed on the strength of the amazing season she has had so far…

However, nobody – not even Venetia – can keep a run going all season - and in a way, it makes sense that she backs off a bit, in the few weeks prior to the Cheltenham festival…

Ofcourse, non of this means that her horses can’t win – but it does mean that horses like Massena represent little in the way of value…

He has won his last 3 outings – but his handicap mark has risen 2 stone as a consequence. He was an even money shot on the opening show last night – and had to be taken on at that price (he has now drifted to 2/1).

Of his 4 opponents 3 ran in the same race over this very course and distance in the middle of January…

Tornado in Milan, just got the better of Sound Investment that day, with Itsuptoyou a long way back in fifth…

On the book, Itsuptoyou has little chance of reversing the form – though I could actually see him running better than his dismissive odds imply (it was his first run for a new stable).

The book actually says that Sound Investment should be able to turn the tables on Tornado in Milan, as he is 5lb better off for less than a length beating – but I’m not so sure…

Tornado in Milan tanked his way through that race – and made a few jumping mistakes, yet was still a comfortable 3 lengths up, landing over the last…

He tied up a little on the run in – but I think the distance between the 2 horses flattered the fast finishing Sound Judgement.
If Tornado in Milan settles a bit better today – or just jumps a bit better – I think he will be able to confirm the form…

Top weight, Lord of the House, will love todays conditions – but I was a bit disappointed with him last time out…

Admittedly, that was in a graded event, but he was still beaten far earlier in the race than I expected…

I just wonder if his current rating of 138 is a bit high…

In summary, I’m happy to take on Massena – and happy so side with Tornado in Milan to uphold recent course form with both Sound Investment and Itsuptoyou…

0.5pt win Tornado in Milan 9/2

I’m a little surprised to see Comical Red as big as 11/4 in the handicap hurdle at 3:40…

He bolted up last week over course and distance – and despite a 7lb penalty for that win, still gets to run with just 10st on his back…

Admittedly todays race is a bit tougher – but his rivals have all got to give him a lot of weight…

I would make him the most likely winner of the race…

Former Tote Gold Trophy winner, Recession Proof, looks of some interest in the 4:10 race…

He was off the course for a couple of years following his big race win, and it is difficult to be adamant that he retains all of his old ability.

However, he has run with some credit in 3 very valuable handicaps this season – and today’s contest represents a sharp drop in class for him.

6/1 is probably a fair enough price to compensate for the risks…

Ludlow

3:30

This race has a very open look to it, but I assessed it before any prices had been issued and made Firebird Flyer the favourite. At 6/1, he therefore has to be a tip !

I certainly think he is the most solid option in the race…

He has won on his only previous outing at the track (a 3 and a half length beating of Ballyoliver, whom he meets on 4 lb better terms today); he has won off a mark just 3lb lower than todays – and he ran an absolute cracker, last time out in the West Wales National, at Ffos Las…

He looked likely to win the race that day, until not quite getting home as well as Emperors Choice. Dropping back 4 furlongs in trip today, has to be in his favour, as all of his best form has been over a 3 mile trip.

In truth, it is very difficult to find any holes in the case for Firebird Flyer.

He is well handicapped, in form – and will have course, distance and going to suit.

I would expect him to run his race, it’s just a case of whether there is one capable of beating him…

Unfortunately, that is a possibility, as whilst non of his opponents have profiles as solid as his, a few of them have the potential to run a very big race…

Roalco Des Farges would be a huge threat if recapturing his form of 2 years ago – and there was plenty to like about his comeback run. It’s just a question of whether he has gone forwards or backwards since that outing…

Forgotten Gold is another potentially very dangerous rival. His jumping has gone to pot recently – but with a clear round, he is running off a dangerous mark…

I would be prepared to take on the other 5 runners, either on account of the ground, trip, fitness or handicap mark – whilst acknowledging that victory for any of them isn’t impossible…

On balance, then, a tough race to call – but one in which I feel that Firebird Flyer is the solid option.

0.5pt win Firebird Flyer 6/1

In the 5:00 race, The Pier opened up at 14/1 last night…

I would have been prepared to take a 0.25pt risk on him at that price – but unfortunately you can’t beat 10/1 this morning…

He was down to run on Monday but was pulled out of that race. As I said then, he is handicapped to win – and certainly win a race as weak as todays - but I just have some concerns about his well being..

The sharp Ludlow track should suit him well, so if he is every going to collect, I could see it being today.

I just wish his price was little bigger…

Thurles

In the novice chase at 3:25, I toyed with tipping Pencilhimin…

We were on him back in December when he finished second in a handicap hurdle at Limerick.

He followed that up with a disappointing run over hurdles at Navan before making his fencing debut at Thurles at the end of January.

That was over an unsuitable 2 mile trip – but he still managed to lead the field and jump like a buck…

He weakened badly up the home straight but presumably that was because he set off too quickly.

I would assume that Robbie Power will ride him with more restraint this afternoon, and if he does, I could see this full brother to Gold Cup winner, War of Attrition, surprising some better fancied rivals…

Finally, a quick mention for Luddsdenene in the 5:05 race…

I let the cat out of the bag last time he ran, when I declared my undying love for him !

He’s probably just about my favourite horse in training – even though he (almost) never wins !

He’s rated 98 – but has the ability to be a 140+ horse. Unfortunately, he has a breathing problem and when put under pressure, he just stops…

My policy is to back him pre-race – and then lay him off rounding the home turn, when he is cantering all over his rivals…

He generally stops at that point – but provided you’ve secured a profit on the exchanges, it doesn’t matter !

Better, still, his handicap mark never changes, so he can do precisely the same thing next time !

Now maybe you can see why I love him !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Taun 3:10 Tornado in Milan 9/2

Lud 3:30 Firebird Flyer 6/1

Mentions

Taun 3:40 Comical Red (O)

Taun 4:10 Recession Proof (S)

Lud 5:00 The Pier (S)

Thur 3:25 Pencilhimin (S)