Daily write-up - Feb 6th

There is racing this afternoon at both Doncaster and Huntingdon, which is a bit of a surprise - particularly to me, as I had got it in my head that it the racing was supposed to be at Wincanton this afternoon !

I didn’t fancy the chances of any racing taking place there – but as Huntingdon is a fair bit further east (and therefore shouldn’t have been subjected to quite so much rain) their chances of racing were always going to be a little better.  

That said, I’m sure the going will be desperate at the Cambridgeshire track…

You might have expected similar at Doncaster – but apparently the ground will be good to soft, good in places !

On the back of that forecast I was half tempted by one on the Doncaster card, but bearing in mind how reliable going descriptions can be, I’ve decided to just make it a mention instead…

Therefore just the one tip for the day – and we are taking on a Venetia hot pot !

Still, all of hers can’t win – can they ?!?!

Huntingdon

1:40

My route into this race was actually via the Colin Tizzard trained Milarrow…

I tipped him around this time last season, when he finished second at Wincanton, in a better class race than todays, off a mark 11lb higher.

If he could reproduce that form today, he would win this – but he has become disappointing…

I half expected him to bounce back to form last time out at Exeter, in first time blinkers – but he showed little that day and following him this afternoon would be a bit of an act of faith…

Browns Brook is the obvious one in the race. He was a very easy winner last time out – but that was a pretty poor contest and it did rather fall apart.

He was given a 14lb hike in the weights for the win and faces better class opposition today.
He might be up to the task, but he is no even money shot to my eyes…

Instead, I would rather take a risk on Riddlestown, who won over this course and distance back in October and returns today off a mark just 4lb higher…

That might lead you to think that he’s disappointed since that win – but I don’t feel that is the case, particular not in his races over fences (his last 2 runs have been over hurdles).

In particular, the form of his third to Ifyousayso at Leicester in December, looks absolutely rock solid. The first and second that day have both won since – and Riddlestown only gave best to them over the last couple of fences, when his suspect stamina became an issue.

He runs over half a mile less today – and off a mark 3lb lower.

Based on that piece of form, he is well handicapped….

I also believe that todays test is precisely what he needs (2m4f on soft ground) – and that the race could be run to suit him…

The key to riding Riddlestown seems to be holding him up off a decent pace.

A number of the runners in todays race like to get on with things (Moleskin, Browns Brook, Ring Bo Ree and Goring Two) so I’ll be surprised if there’s not a good pace on.

That should enable Nick Skelton to settle him out the back and then pick off rivals down the back straight.

Providing his jumping holds up – and the ground isn’t too desperate, then I think he has a much better chance of victory than his odds imply…

0.5pt win Riddlestown 14/1

I could quite fancy Henry King in the next race – if he wasn’t being asked to run over 3 miles in desperate ground…

The form of his two runs this season is very good – and he remains well handicapped. However, he just doesn’t strike me as the kind of horse that will relish 3 miles in the mud (his style of racing is far too exuberant).

He will likely make a nice in-running trade for those of you who are into that kind of thing – but I’ll be surprised if he comes home in front..

I would be more inclined to take a chance on chasing debutante Woodford County. He will have no issue with the trip and ground and looks reasonably handicapped.

Provided his jumping cuts mustard, he might be able to outstay the opposition…

There is a lot of guesswork involved in the juvenile hurdle at 2:50, but I would be prepared to take a couple of outsiders against the field…

Alco Sivola ran a decent race on his debut at Newbury and provided he comes on for the run (and Nick Williams horses normally do), he should run well, in conditions that are likely to suit…

The other one of interest at a very big price, is Memberof…

He was a big disappointment on his UK debut at Aintree back in October. However, he was sent off a 4/6 shot that day so better was clearly expected.

He won his only other hurdle race, in France, and just might be capable of rewarding a small investment…

Doncaster

There are some potential top class horses running in the first few races at Doncaster. Most notably, Rock on Ruby and First Mohican…

It will be very interesting to see how both perform with a view to the big festivals – but neither offer betting opportunities…

The 3 mile chase at 3;00 certainly offers possibilities – but it is a really difficult race to get a handle on…

The one that interests me most, is Mr Gardner.

He has fallen in the weights recently, and should appreciate todays decent ground (assuming it is genuinely good). The booking of Barry Geraghty also appears quite significant  -and I have to admit to being quite tempted by him…

The trouble is, he is clearly is decline (the question is, how rapidly ?); plus he also needs quick ground to be seen at his best, Furthermore, 3 or 4 of his rivals are more than capable of putting it up to him – if they are on a going day…

Harry the Viking is potentially the most dangerous – though he really would need to bounce back to form.

On balance, I just felt that there were too many unknowns to get involved. Obviously this doesn’t mean that Mr Gardner won’t win – just that I wasn’t prepared to take a risk on him…

The 3:35 race looks even more difficult to unravel.
Its run over hurdles – but most of the runners have been plying their recent trade over fences…

It strikes me as a race that almost anything could win.

My pin landed on Everaard – but don’t ask me to justify it !!

Finally, I was half tempted by Thunderstorm in the 4:10 race – but I feel that he could probably do with slightly softer ground…

He’s been running OK recently – yet still manages to find himself with a falling handicap mark.

Clondaw Knight looks the obvious one to beat, on the back of a very impressive chasing debut last time out – but him aside, the opposition looks limited…

If the ground had been softer I might have taken a risk with Thunderstorm – but as (I believe) things stand, he’ll just have to be a mention…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Hunt 1:40 Riddlestown 14/1

Mentions

Hunt 2:15 Woodford County (P)

Hunt 2:50 Alco Sivola (S)

Hunt 2:50 Memberof (S)

Donc 3:00 Mr Gardner (O)

Donc 3:35 Everaard (S)

Donc 4:10 Thunderstorm (C)