Starting with the headline figures:
TVB tips
Total staked: 34.25pts
Total profit: 25.25pts
ROI 74%
*Adjusted figures
Total staked: 34.25pts
Total profit: 19pts
ROI 55%
*The adjusted figures assume that all bets are layed off
at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether it wins the
race.
Whichever way you look at it, the numbers
for December are pretty impressive.
I’m going to have to go some to beat a
profit of 74% in a month – particularly when it was made up from a lot of
winners (so not one or two big priced ones, with big stakes on them !).
The 34.25pts staked were spread across 71 horses
competing in 63 races.
Which is very similar to November – and leads me on to the first point I want to make…
I have spent a lot of time, trying to come
up with the perfect staking system, and whilst I was doing that, I think one
that I feel comfortable with, just dropped out
!
As far as I’m concerned, the tips that I
issue fall into 3 categories:
‘Certainties’; ‘Standard tips’; and
‘Speculative ones’…
From now on, the staking for each category
of tip will be as follows:
Certainties: 1pt
Standard Tips:
0.5pt
Speculative Ones:
0.25pt
And broadly that will be it ! (as was the
case for most of December).
I will allow myself a little bit of
flexibility – particularly with the Standard tips. So if I really fancy one
(like Iron Butterfly), I will increase the stake to 0.75pt (or occasionally a
full point); whilst if I’m not so keen on one (like Lord Windermere), I will
reduce the stake to 0.25pt.
The same would also apply with both the
Certainties (though they are unlikely to ever go beyond 1pt) and the Speculative
ones (though clearly they can’t be staked any less
!).
So that is that then - staking sorted ;)
Apologies for drawing the subject out –
particularly, if you have ‘under staked’ to this point – but I won’t be changing
it again this season, so you can now give a point whatever value you deem
appropriate !
Anyway, I digress !!
As with last month, I was very pleased with the way that
the relatively high volume of tips resulted in a pretty smooth
P&L…
The biggest drop from a peak was 10pts –
5pts if you chose the option to lay off
in-running.
I’m sure you guys must appreciate that kind
of stability (I know that it’s always a worry with a service such as mine, where
I go looking for big priced winners, as they do tend to have very long losing
runs).
In terms of placings, then the 71 horses achieved the following:
1st – 13
2nd –
9
3rd –
3
4th -
3
In all my months tipping, that is the first time that
winners have been on top of that particular table ! (about time too, some of you
might say !).
I guess the lack of third and fourth placings could be
considered a bit worrying – but it’s not really, as I read very little into
those placings (the vast majority of my tips being win
only)
Far more interesting, is that in addition to the 13
winners, 9 other tips (not all of them the seconds) traded at 2 or less
in-running.
So in 22 of the 63 races that I tipped in, we had a horse
go odds on in-running (that is over a third of the
races).
If I was generally tipping 2/1 shots. That would be fair
enough – however it included one at 25/1, three at 20/1 and two at 16/1 – so all
in all, pretty impressive figures (even if I do say so myself !)
There was actually a golden period, between
the weekend that I went to the wedding (10/12) and the Christmas break (22/12),
during which I tipped 35 horses – and 15 of them traded odds on in-running
(there were 9 winners and over 20pts profit, on 17pts staked
).
And that brings me on to the other point
that I wanted to make in this report…
Generally, I felt as if the month went fine
(more than fine, really !) – but the recent period between Christmas and the New
Year, has been a struggle…
I think that things have gone so well this
season, because I’ve got some very fixed routines. I have processes for just
about everything – and these enable me to produce output in a very consistent
fashion…
The nature of the Christmas period, with far
more racing – and lots more people around (and things going on !) breaks my
routines.
Clearly, there is not a lot I can do about
it (!) – but I do need to think, for next year, whether I should be handling the
period in the same way…
To an extent, I think we got lucky this
time, in so much as we actually made a slight profit over the period – but I
think that was as much to be being in the zone, as anything
else.
In future years, the timing might not be so
good…
I’ll give it a little thought: but I do want
to consider the possibility of not tipping – or not producing the write-ups –
over the period.
Simply, things just didn’t
fit…
Anyway, I don’t want to end of a down note,
because I think December 2013 was probably my best month tipping, ever
!
January 2014 has certainly got a hard act to
follow – but I’m optimistic, it will be up to the task ;)
TVB.
These are outstanding figures Andrew! My betting bank is very healthy thanks to you, and lets hope 2014 is just as kind!
ReplyDeleteThe only problem with posting figures like that Dave, is that they raise expectations..!
ReplyDeleteI would be more than happy with half that profit in January.
Generally, I would hope to achieve around 30% across the entire season – based on people getting the advised odds and following the recommended staking.
Ofcourse, I think it should be possible to beat those numbers, by interpreting the write-ups and acting accordingly (tweaking stakes a little, adding in a few mentions etc.) – but that comes down to the individual and how much work they are so prepared to put in.
I certainly don’t think that people should be afraid to just use my input as a base – and try to build from that. I appreciate that not everyone will feel comfortable doing that – but you will be starting from a sound platform, and with a little creativity, who knows what you might be able to achieve (as you yourself demonstrated with your ‘mentions’ Lucky 15 !!).
A.