Daily write-up - Jan 1st

Despite Lingfield and Exeter being lost to the weather, there are still 6 cards today: at Cheltenham, Musselburgh, Catterick and Fakenham in the UK: plus Tramore and Fairyhouse in Ireland…

First things first:

Happy New Year to you all !

I hope it’s an healthy – and prosperous one (I’ll certainly be doing my bit to help with the second part ;) )

Despite all the action, I’ve no got any particularly strong fancies for this afternoon…

We’ve ended up with 5 tips though – and I would be hopefully that at least one of them will be able to come home in front. Time will tell…

The observant amongst you will have noticed that I’ve not yet issued my monthly report for December (!). That’s mainly because I intended to do it yesterday - but instead spent the time finding you a winner ;)

I’ll look to get it out in the next day or two…

Also, a reminder that I’m away this weekend, from late Friday to early Monday.
There will therefore be no tips/write-ups/review during this period.

If there is anything suitable, I will tip on Friday – but the next you will hear from me after that, will either be Monday evening or Tuesday morning…

Anyway, that’s in the future.

We need to get todays tips/rationale out of the way first…!

Cheltenham

1:55

This is an odd race, in so much as there is a question mark of sorts, over just about every horse, bar one…

Return Spring is the only ‘question mark’ free horse – the rest are returning from an absence; returning to hurdles after running over fences – or just bang out of form…

Maybe it’s not too surprising then, that Return to Spring - with his uncomplicated profile, has been made favourite for the race. And I concede that he is the one to beat…

However, I think that The Giant Bolster may be able to beat him…

Obviously he is far better known as a chaser – but at his best, he is a very, very good chaser…

The high light of his career so far, is a second placing in the 2012 Gold Cup, behind Synchronised. That is obviously top class form and makes his handicap mark today of 145, look a bit of a joke (he was rated 164 over fences after than run – and arguable that was conservative).

The last time TGB ran in a handicap, it was off todays mark. That day, he absolutely dotted up by 19 lengths, from the very useful Poquelin.

That win was over fences – and it is a long time since TGB last ran over hurdles. That was at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals back in the spring of 2010.

TGB ran well in a couple of the novice championship events at those meetings – and I can see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to run up to his chase rating, over the smaller obstacles.

He is currently rated 159 over fences – so a full stone higher than he runs off today.
Furthermore, there is a sneaking suspicion that he is actually a fair bit better than his chase rating.
If that is the case, than at a course he absolutely loves, he is going to take the beating today…

0.5pt win The Giant Bolster 11/1

12:45

This looks a pretty open race to me and I think it might just be worth taking a chance on one of the rank outsiders…

Bendant has never before competed at class 2 level – and he has certainly never run in a race of this quality.

As a result, I think he may have been underestimated by the bookmakers - and consequently, I think it is worth taking a chance on him.

He has certainly been in decent form so far this campaign. Following a fair second place on his seasonal debut, he was the only one giving Night Alliance a race, when he fell at the third last fence, at Ffos Las, next time out. Considering Night Alliance was running of 104 that day – and is now rated 134, Bendant was in the process of running a very big race…

On his most recent run, Bendant was a comfortable winner. Whilst it is true that he had very little to beat that day, ultimately you can only ever beat what is put in front of you, and he did it well enough…

The question with him really is whether he is good enough to hold his own in this higher grade – and in truth, we just don’t know the answer to that question…

However, there are doubts over a number of his rivals so I’m not sure that today’s race is actually as competitive as the numbers suggest..

I think the most likely winner is De La Bech – but he is a relatively short priced favourite.

There are a few others who I think could win – but most have question marks over them, so at a very big price, Bendant looks like quite a nice bet…

0.25pt win Bendant 33/1

2:30

There is quite a disappointing turnout for this £50K race and it does look to be Double Ross’s for the taking…

The opposition to him is generally poor – and I was half tempted to put him up – but I just can’t bring myself to do so, at a best price of 2/1…

He is very inexperienced over fences and whilst he jumped round Cheltenham absolutely fine, when winning a better race than this last time out, you wouldn’t say he was absolutely guaranteed to do so again…

If he does, he must go close – but one who might be able to give him a race regardless, is Carrickboy…

He was a gutsy winner of the Byrne Group plate over this course and distance, at the festival, back in March.

Following a few under par runs, he gets in today off a mark just 6lb higher and if he is in the same form as he was back in March, Double Ross had better look out !

Carrickboy had the field for the Bryne group plate strung out behind him like a line of washing, that day. The only horse that was able to give him a race, was Vino Griego and after an impressive victory in a conditions race this season, that one is now rated 12lb higher than he was in March.

The suggestion therefore is that it is a particularly hot piece of form – so the big question is whether Carrickboy can repeat it today…

Obviously track and trip suit him fine – as should todays softer ground. Maybe also as important however, will be the smaller field.
I can see Carrickboy tucking in behind leader Pickamus and if Liam Tredwell can get him jumping in a rhythm, I think he is likely to prove very difficult to beat…

0.25pt win Carrickboy 10/1

I’m a little surprised that Ballyalton isn’t a shorter price in the opener…

I’ve been really taken with him so far this season and whilst he does have to give a few pounds to the rest of the field, I’ll be a bit surprised if he’s not able to do so…

In fact, I think I’ll make him a Top Pick !

Hopefully Oscar Whiskey will be able to gain his revenge on Tarqun Du Seuil in the Dipper novice chase at 1:20.

Tarquin had his measure when they met here in November, but that was Oscars fencing debut – and the race didn’t pan out in his favour.

I’ll be a little surprised if Oscar can’t gain his revenge today…

I’ll also be looking forward to seeing Annie Power confirm her superiority over Zarkandar in the conditions hurdle at 3:05.

She beat him last time out at Ascot and even on 5lb worse terms, I expect her to confirm that form this afternoon…

Fakenham

Vasco D’Ycy is a horse that I’ve had my eye on all season…

I half fancied him when he made his seasonal debut at Wetherby. He was a huge price that day – but ran much better than his odds suggested and was still leading the field (with many of them in trouble) as they entered the home straight.

He was eventually swallowed up and ultimately finished last of the 4 finishers – beaten 30 lengths. But it as still a fair run…

It was a similar story next time out…

In a grade 2 race at Haydock, he was again a big price. Leading once more, he was picked off in the closing stages and ultimately finished last – but again ran with much more promise than his finishing position suggests.

Both of the races he ran in, were won by the More of That. He is now rated 160 and fifth favourite for the World Hurdle at the festival – so the form has quite a solid look to it !!

As a result of those 2 runs, the handicap mark of Vasco D’Ycy has dropped 7lb to 119 - and I reckon that makes him well handicapped…

I also reckon that he will be well suited to todays sharper track – and lower class of race.

The big question is how the race will pan out.

I would expect Vasco D’Ycy to try and make all – but I won’t be overly concerned if he sits behind the leader.

The important thing will be whether his jockey manages to get him to settle…

I am slightly concerned about top weight Maller Tree – he was decent in Ireland, over this trip – and ran well enough last time.

Some of you might want to save stakes on him,

For official purposes however, it is win only on Vasco D’Ycy in the hope that, having not beaten a horse home so far this season, he can leave form book students scratching their heads !!

0.5pt win Vasco D’Ycy 15/2

3:15

Torrential Rain was a big eye catcher, last time out at Carlisle…

In a race run over 3m1f in soft ground, he was always going comfortably, before taking up the running at the fourth last hurdle.

He showed a nice turn of foot to go a few lengths clear of his field at that point – seemingly having all of his rivals in trouble.

However, he couldn’t sustain his burst and ultimately was reeled in and finished fifth…

I was left with the impression that he was the best horse in the race that day – and with a more judicious ride, he probably would have won.

The fact he gets to drop back a couple of furlongs today, on a sharper track will help him as well.

He was a winner over 2m5f in the heavy at Uttoxeter, in March, so he clearly doesn’t lack the pace to be effective at a shorter trip.

That win was also achieved off a mark just 3lb lower than the one he gets to race off today – so he looks well enough handicapped.

The icing on the cake, is probably the booking of 7lb claimer Josh Wall, who has won on 2 of his previous 5 rides for the Michael Blake stable.

Lets hope he can make it 3 from 6 this afternoon ;)

0.5pt win Torrential Rain 13/2

Musselburgh

The Edinburgh track put on a fair meeting, but I struggled to find anything worthy of a tip…

In the Scottish Premier chase at 1:35, I was quite interested in Upsilon Bleu.

I suspect he is a fair bit better than his current mark, however Viva Colonia and Bar De Ligne look potentially dangerous rivals –and I am also intrigued as to why Timmy Murphy isn’t on board…

It was following his ride on Upsilon Bleu last time out at Newbury, that Murphy had an altercation with Dominic Elsworth. However, Upsilon Bleu is owned by Murphys father-in-law – so you would have thought any dispute would have been resolved…

Curious…

In the Hogmaneigh hurdle at 2:10, our old friend Ifandbutwhynot looks interesting…

Murphy does keep the ride on him and he’s only 6lb higher for his last time out win at Newbury.
He has also won at Musselburgh in the past, so the course shouldn’t cause any issues.

My main problem was with the price. 6/1 in a competitive 15 runner race doesn’t appear overly generous…

Fairyhouse

Unoccupied and Love Rory clash swords in the chase at 1:50…

If the prices were right, I could have been interested in either one – but a best quote of 5/1 about each of them leaves us with a watching race…

Similarly, the price just isn’t there on Hop In in the 3:00 race.

He was a comfortable winner last time out in a race that looked a little better than todays…
He only got 4lb for that win, which would seem very generous.

I guess the 15/8 this morning was actually a fair enough price – though I wouldn’t be so sure about the current 11/8.

All that said, I think he will win.

Another Top Pick then…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chlt 12:45 Bendant 33/1

Chlt 1:55 The Giant Bolster 11/1

Chlt 2:30 Carrickboy 10/1

Fake 2:05 Vasco D’Ycy 15/2

Fake 3:15 Torrential Rain 13/2

*Mentions

Muss 1:35 Upsilon Bleu (P)

Muss 2:10 Ifandbutwhynot (P)

Fairy 1:50 Unoccupied (O)

**Top Picks

Chlt 12:45 Ballyalton

Fairy 3:00 Hop In

 * Mentions are horses that I fancy – but not strongly enough to make them tips…

The main reason they are not tips, is put in brackets after the horses name:

P – Price

O – Opposition

S – Speculative

C – Conditions

** Top Picks are horses I expect to win ! The price is immaterial and the hope is that they will produce a profit, just backing at BSP (Betfair Starting Price)