Daily write-up - 17th Jan

Just the 1 meeting today, at Musselburgh, which is not what you’d expect for a Friday…

I also didn’t expect to be tipping at it – but I am !

In fact, I think I’m going to give up trying to guess the amount of action we’ll be getting on a day, until I’ve studied the cards properly…

On Wednesday, I was convinced that Thursday would be a bumper day, tip-wise – but I was wrong: yesterday I was equally convinced there would be nothing doing today – and I was wrong again !

In my defence, there were only ever going to be 2 races of interest today – but it just so happens that I’ve found tips in them both.

Unusually, I was quite happy with the prices last night – and they have remained pretty constant this morning…

That is actually a bit of a concern, because the market tends to know – but it does at least prove, that TVB alone, can’t yet move markets (which supports my assertion that generally, we add fuel to fires, rather than start them !).

Anyway, there is little else on the Musselburgh card that catches my eye, so here is the rationale for the days tips…

Musselburgh

2:45

Discovery Bay was the first horse to catch my eye in this, with AP on top…

He ran a good race to finish runner up to Willows Saviour over this course and distance, on his penultimate run. He disappointed on his next run, be must have a good chance off a mark just 1lb higher than last time he was here…

However, Smart Ruler also ran in the Willows Saviour race and was going every bit as well as Discovery Bay, when he knuckled on landing at the third last hurdle.

It’s impossible to say which horse would have come out on top that day – and it is highly unlikely to that either of them would have troubled the winner – but based on that run, Smart Ruler has a big chance today…

The fact he is 3lb better off with Discovery Bay will also help matters – though in truth, that is not likely to be as important as the state of the ground.

Smart Ruler appears to wants quick ground – and whilst that is never going to be easy to find at this time of year, The Musselburgh track today is likely to provide going as fast as will be found anywhere in the country, this month.

Although now quite exposed as a hurdler, Smart Ruler has taken his form to a new level this season…

A couple of placed efforts last spring, were followed up by victories at Cartmel and Sedgefield before finishing runner up to the now 124 rated, It’s a Mans World, at Perth.

Although beaten that day, the Perth run suggests that Smart Ruler is pretty well handicapped on a mark of 117.

In addition to the worry over the ground, the other thing that slightly troubles me is that AP is on board Discovery Bay…

He rode Smart Ruler on his last 3 runs in novice company, so I assume he could have had the ride today – if he had wanted it…

That said, Smart Ruler is close to 4 times the price of Discovery Bay - and jockey don’t get all those calls right (assuming that he even had it to make !).

0.5pt win Smart Ruler 9/1

3:20

I have to admit, it was the subtle signs that put me on the track of the main tip in this race, Dorset Naga…

Anthony Honeyball is a trainer I follow quite closely and is strikes me as significant that he is prepared to send Dorset Naga on a 800 mile round trip from his Dorset base, for todays race.

More than that, he is the only ride of the day for jockey Robert Thornton…

As I’ve said before, the subtle signs on their own, would never be sufficient to make me tip a horse – but they do make me look at one more closely and looking at this one more closely, I think I can see a case…

Dorset Naga is still a relatively unexposed horse. He ran just 8 times before he picked up a tendon strain and was out of action for over 12 months…

His return was at Fontwell last October, where he comfortably won a handicap chase off a mark just 4lb lower than he races off today…

The suggestion was that he would go on from that run and he was just a 5/1 shot for the Bobby Renton chase at Wetherby in October.

However, he was struggling to make up ground, when he took a fall in that contest. It was a bit too early to say categorically that he was beaten – but that looked the case…

Next time out at Exeter, he travelled well enough in another fair race, but was ultimately found wanting up the home straight over a trip that was possibly too far for him…

Looking at his form, it would appear that Dorset Naga is best over 2m4f on decent ground – and when running after a break.

And hey presto, that’s precisely the combination he gets today !

When you couple that with the subtle signs – and a rating that is just 4lb higher than his last wining mark, I think you have a reasonable case for siding with a 14/1 shot…

The other one I want on side in this contest, is Rudemeister…

He also ran in the Bobby Renton chase at Wetherby and he finished a creditable fourth that day…

However, straight after that race, he was subjected to a breathing operation, as it was felt by connections that his performance was being impaired by a physical problem…

Bearing in mind that he ran pretty well when apparently not fully right, then clearly if the operation brings about some improvement in his form, he should be capable of running a big race today.
The fact that he’s won after a break in the past (it is 3 months since he last ran) and his preference for quick ground, are other positives for him.

The only previous time that Rudemeister ran at the Musselburgh track was last January…

He was a faller that day, but at the time he departed he was in the process of putting it up to the now 142 rated pair, Viva Colonia and Sydney Paget.

As Rudemeister gets to run off a mark of just 123 today, that shows you potentially how well handicapped he is…

As for the forecast – I have to admit to being half tempted…!!

0.5pt win Dorset Naga 14/1

0.25pt win Rudemeister 10/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Muss 2:45 Smart Ruler 9/1

Muss 3:20 Dorset Naga 14/1

Muss 3:20 Rudemeister 10/1