Daily write-up - Jan 8th

Once again, just the one NH meeting survives the weather today – this time at Doncaster…

It’s a fair meeting however, and I had no trouble finding a tip (or three !).

I meant to mention yesterday, but just a quick word of thanks to whichever one of you is a member of ‘Key Racing News’ and posted positively on their forum about the TVB service…

As a result, I got my first Weekender subscriber via personal recommendation, on Friday ! – which was a nice way for me to start my weekend away.

Anyway, time is short today, so on the rationale for todays tips – plus a few other thoughts…

Doncaster

12:40

We were on Bohemian Rhapsody on his penultimate run at Newbury - and were a little unlucky not to collect that day…

Held up out the back, he made steady headway up the straight and looked sure to win as he jumped the last a couple of lengths clear.

However, it was not to be and he was worn down on the run to the line, eventually finishing second.

Bohemian Rhapsody took a 7lb rise in the weights for that run - but was still sent off favourite, next time out, in a better class race at Kempton.

Again he was held up – though this time I think the jockey over did the waiting tactics, as he was soon detached by 10 lengths in a slowly run race.

He clearly has an engine though, as he was able to make up that ground and looked in with a chance at the second last. However, his earlier exertions then took their toll and he could only plug on for a distant fourth place…

The way he is ridden suggests that he is not the most straightforward of horses – and he is also not the most fluent over his hurdles – but he clearly has ability way beyond his current mark of 117.

After 2 rides, hopefully Conor O’Farrell has now figured him out – and if he can get a tune out of him today, I think he will take the world of beating…

That said, there are plenty of potential dangers in the race, probably headed by the two four years olds, Force Family Fun and Stephen Hero. I did actually consider a saver on the latter – but the odds weren’t quite where I wanted them.

Of the others, then favourite Nesterenko looks a bit quirky to me – and therefore probably not the best ride for a 7lb claimer.

Whilst our old friend Hartside will doubtless run his race- but he is edging up the handicap and todays ground is likely to be quick enough for him…

On balance then, I think Bohemian Rhapsody is the one to beat – provided his jockey rides the right race on him and his jumping proves up to scratch !!

0.5 pt win Bohemian Rhapsody 6/1

2:45

I’ve got to be honest, I’m a little surprised by the price of My Flora in this …

I thought she was a big eye catcher last time out, in a mares race at Bangor, on her first outing for Dan Skelton.

Despite that race being run over a trip plenty short enough for her, she travelled really well to the home turn, before seemingly running out of gas…

As she stays further than that 2m4f, I think it reasonable to assume that she needed the run – and so would expect her to improve for it today.

If she does, then over a more suitable trip – and on decent enough ground, I really think she is the one to beat.

Admittedly she was a little disappointing last season, when in the care of Donald McCain, but based on the form she showed in hunter chases, the season before that, she looks absolutely throw in today, off a mark of 117…

Her best run in hunter chases was probably her fourth in the Foxhunters at the 2012 Cheltenham festival. It’s difficult to say precisely what mark she ran to that day, but I would say it was at least 130 – the suggestion being that she potentially has a stone in hand today.
Ofcourse, that is assuming that she is still able to perform to the same level – but as we know only too well, if anyone can get them to run up to form, then Dan can ;)

I might actually have gone in even stronger on her – but the ones at the top of the market, do worry me a little…

If Harry Fry has managed to relight Triangulars flame, then he could be very hard to beat off his current mark; whilst Ifoyousayso won like an improving horse, last time at Leicester…

On balance then, caution got the better of me, and I had a place saver – just in case My Flora runs really well, but those two run even better !

Let’s hope the saver part of the bet won’t be required, and My Flora comes home in front !

05pt win, 0.25pt place My Flora 14/1

3:20

I’ve mentioned before, how important it is to pick up on a strong form line…

I found a couple last season which we mined to some effect – and I’m optimistic that I’ve found one this season…

It was the race at Uttoxeter, won by Ut Majeur Aulmes. Off the top of my head, I think that 3 winners have come out of it so far – and we’ve been on two of them…

One of them was Iron Butterfly, who won for us at Doncaster last time. Victory for her that day looked unlikely until the final strides – but she eventually managed to wear down Queen Spud in the shadow of the post.

It’s not fair to say that Queen Spud was unlucky that day – she was beaten fair and square. But she was mugged a little in the shadow of the post – and I suspect that Iron Butterfly is a bit better than common consensus would think.

Therefore running off the same mark today, I think that Queen Spud simply has to be of major interest…

There are a couple of ‘subtle signs’ which I feel also add to her case today.

Firstly she is the only runner that Henry Daly is taking to the South Yorkshire track and secondly Richard Johnson is down on the minimum weight of 10st, to ride her…

Over precisely the same course and distance as last time – and with no Iron Butterfly in opposition, I just can’t see why she won’t run a huge race…

Ofcourse there is a chance that even matching her performance of last time, won’t be good enough.

Dardanella in particular, looks a dangerous rival. However, I feel she has still got quite a lot to prove. She won well enough last time out, but the form of that race looks poor and she has been allocated mark of 112 on the back of it.
Consequently she has to give Queen Spud 22lb. She may be up to it – but on balance, I think Queen Spud is the much safer bet…

1pt win Queen Spud 5/2

It will be interesting to see whether Western Warhorse can get he career back on track in the novice chase at 1:40…

He looked a horse of huge potential until blotting his copybook in no uncertain terms, when scheduled to run at Kempton over Christmas…

He showed wayward tendencies that day, to break lose and then refuse to be caught.

We will find out today whether that was a one off…

In the novice hurdle at 2:10, I will be hoping that Diamond King can also get his career back on track.

I had huge expectations for him this season - but he was disappointing last time out at Bangor.

A mistake at the last cost him the race that day - but he’d not been overly impressive prior to that point.

Hopefully he will bounce back to form this afternoon…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Donc 12:40 Bohemian Rhapsody 6/1

Donc 2:45 My Flora 14/1

Donc 3:20 Queen Spud 5/2

 

Mentions

Donc 12:40 Stephen Hero (P)