Daily write-up - Jan 19th

Just the 2 NH meetings today: at Towcester in the UK and Fairyhouse in Ireland…

Both are decent meetings and I’ve got fancies in lots of the races.

In fact, if I were in better form, there would doubtless have been a few more tips – but until I’ve worked my way through this dodgy patch, I feel it is better to air on the side of caution and only tip the ones that I feel strongly about.

I’ve got the mentions and Top Picks to fall back on: these will enable me to gauge my form without us getting burnt too badly...

Once I return to my former glory, you can all put these in accumulators again – but for the time being, I would just watch them (if I were you !!).

Just the two tips on the day then: one I am tipping for the third time this season – and he better win ! Whilst the other one will either win or pull up (but at the likely odds, I’m prepared to take that risk !).

Here’s the rationale for them – plus some thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Towcester

2:40

We’ve been on Freckle Face the last twice he’s run, so I won’t bore you too much with the general reasons as to why I think he will win today…

In summary, I think he’s a reasonably well handicapped horse – who despite never having won in 19 runs under rules, is more than capable of doing so…

That point was proven last time out, when he cruised into the lead over this course, in December.

He looked sure to win that day, but he had raced freely early in the race and the Towcester hill ultimately caught him out.

He appeared to booked for second when he fell – though he was a very tired horse…

Off a 2lb higher mark, it may appear questionable why he would win today. But there is one big difference.

Todays race is over half a mile less – and at that distance, Freckle Face would almost certainly have won, last time out.

The other reason is because todays race looks particularly poor…

I thought that last time – but it’s nearly impossible to nominate a danger today.

The only thing that I can see beating Freckle Face, is his weight - and the fact that he was to give almost 2 stone to the likes of Hectors House and Panthers Run.

Still, that’s not going to make them run any faster – the question is how much will the big weight slow down Freckle Face..?

Ofcourse, that’s impossible to say for sure, but I take comfort from the fact that his best performances have all been when carrying big weights in soft or heavy ground.

In short, he is proven in circumstances the same as todays…

I guess in truth, I should have staked him as a ‘cert’ (ie. 1pt win) – but just at the moment, I don’t feel like anything is a cert, so he’s become a standard tip.

Provided he wins, I won’t be complaining too much…

0.5pt win Freckle Face 5/2

In the opening race on the card, Milord really should prove too good for his rivals and finally break his duck over timber…

He’s another one who we’ve been with twice this season and he looks a class above the opposition today.
However, you won’t get rich backing him at 4/5 – and that is on the back of a nasty fall last time out.

I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Silent Knight.

A PTP winner, he didn’t show much on his hurdling debut at Southwell but provided he has come on for that run, he should perform much better today and might be worth a tiny punt at 20/1…

Those of you with a forgiving nature, might be tempted by Black is Beautiful in the 1:40 race…

He ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Bangor before putting in a shocker next time out at Uttoxeter (when sent off 5/2 fav).

As a result of those 2 runs, he is now 16lb lower in the handicap – which seems ridiculous…

Like I say, you couldn’t back him on his showing from last time – but if you forgive that run, he is spectacularly well handicapped…

Astigos is back out in the 2:10 race, just 3 days after running third for us at Market Rasen…

I was half tempted by him today – but there were some nagging doubts in my mind following his run on Thursday.

That coupled with a relatively short price – and a fair level of opposition, was sufficient to see me swerve him…

Sybarite was another one that I was tempted by, in the 3:10 race…

He really should have won last time out at Ascot  (when given a strange ride) and I think he is a fair bit better than his current mark.
However, he is almost certainly quirky as well – and he faces some serious opposition today…

Tidal Dance was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time, in a much more valuable race than this (he fell early in that contest).

It seems a little odd that his connections haven’t chosen to exploit what they clearly think is a favourable handicap mark – but presumably they have their reasons.

The other 2 at the top of the market are also fair sorts, so this is a decent enough race for the track.

Finally, I think that It’s a Doddle will take some beating in the final race on the card.

He won from an impossible looking position last time – and heavy ground at Towcester would seem to be perfect for him.

Smart Money will doubtless look as if he’s going to hack up, at some point – so this race really could lend itself for an in running play.

Either backing Smart Money pre race and laying off in running – or backing It’s a Doddle in running, as they round the home turn.

I’ll report on how much success I have with this tactic, in the days review..!!

Fairyhouse

2:20

As you should know by now, I do like to have a crack at these valuable Irish handicap chases…

This one is a bit unusual, in so much as it’s run over a 2 mile trip (just over) whereas the majority are run over 3 miles plus…

The method for finding the winner is the same however: young, unexposed sort – with significant scope for improvement.

The trouble is, try as I might, I struggled to find anything with a suitable profile.

As a next step, I looked for a gnarled old timer, who was tumbling down the weights but had shown some recent form – but again nothing…

Obviously that gave me a bit of a dilemma, but then I hit upon Il Fenomeno…

He’s a bit of an enigma in so much as he is seriously talented – but quirky…

And unfortunately, his quirks generally get the better of his talents - but that is not always the case…

At Punchestown last April, he comfortably won a 20 runner handicap hurdle off a mark of 130.

That race was run over 2 miles in soft ground – so the same conditions Il Fenomeno will face today.

Furthermore, he is running off a mark effectively 3lb lower – so he clearly has a chance.

However, todays race is over fences –and Il Fenomeno hasn’t done quite so well over the bigger obstacles.

He’s only run 4 times over fences but has been disappointing on each occasion.

However, it strikes me as quite significant that today connections reach for blinkers – and if they do light him up, I can see him out running his odds by some considerable margin !

I’ve opted to settle him at BSP for 3 reasons: firstly, he is the third choice Gigginstown runner in the race; second he is the second choice Noel Meade runner – and third, he is 4lb out of the handicap…

I may be wrong, but I figure most people will pick up on at least one of these things and rule him out.

I reckon that could be a mistake…

0.25pt win Il Fenomeno BSP

In the 1:50 race, I briefly considered tipping Tidy Zag.

He has won his last two races and is clearly a horse on the improve.

However, he’s risen 15lb in the handicap for those wins and takes on better quality opposition today.

More than that, I feel that his best trip is 2m4f and he is running over 2miles today.

He might still be good enough - but there were sufficient doubts for me to swerve him…

Finally, Hidden Horizons runs in the novice chase at 2:50.

She is the horse that got a few of us our Stan James accounts closed when she made her chasing debut at Down Patrick last time out !

She ran well that day – and the extra 2 furlongs today will definitely help her cause.

However she does face better calibre opponents so whether she will be good enough, only time will tell…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Towc 2:40 Freckle Face 5/2

Fair 2:20 Il Fenomeno BSP

Mentions

Towc 1:10 Silent Knight (S)

Towc 1:40 Black is Beautiful (S)

Towc 2:10 Astigos (P)

Towc 3:10 Sybarite (O)

Fair 1:50 Tidy Zag (O)

Faur 2:50 Hidden Horizons (O)

Top Picks

Towc 4:10 It’s a Doddle