Daily write-up - Jan 13th

Just the one NH meeting today – at Plumpton…

I had absolutely no expectations for the card and was therefore a little surprised to see quite a few interesting races…

Yes, it is low grade stuff – but it is competitive low grade stuff – and I’m hopeful that I’ve found an angle into a couple of the races…

Thanks to those of you who have already commented/voted on yesterdays discussion topic…

The last time I looked, there had been 9 votes. If we can get to 20, I’ll feel that I’ve got a fair representation of views…

Ofcourse, whatever the outcome, it won’t be possible to keep everyone happy (!) – but at least I’ll know the path favoured by the majority (assuming there is a clear majority favouring a particular path).

You have until next Sunday to cast your vote…

Onto to today then – and the rationale for the tips – plus a few comments on a couple of the other races…

Plumpton

1:30

I was faced with a bit of dilemma this morning, over whether to tip in this race…

On the one hand, I can make a clear argument for Head Spin, pitched in against some seriously dodgy rivals: on the other hand, he was 8/1 on the opening show yesterday evening – and 4/1 this morning (and you all know how I hate to miss a price !).

On balance, I figured he was still just about worth a risk – I just hope that non of his major rivals decide to put their best hooves forward today !

Even if they do, they are still likely to be pushed to get the better of Head Spin.

Whilst it is true that he has never won a race under rules, he has shaped with distinct promise in his 4 runs this season, after a disappointing campaign last year…

His last 2 starts in particular, suggest that he is very well handicapped off a mark of just 80 today.

His most recent run, over todays course and distance, looks unbelievably good in the context of todays race…

In fairness, it was in a 5 runner chase – so the form needs to be treated with some caution (particularly as the third fav departed early).

Head Spin was no match for the winner that day, Brick Red, but he is a 140+ rated performer; however he did run to within 2 lengths of the 130 rated Kings Spirit. Granted there might have reasons why Kings Spirit under performed that day – but it still gives Head Spin about 40lb to play with today !

If that was the extent of the case for him today, then I might be wary – but his form is under–pinned by some other solid efforts this season…

On his penultimate run at Southwell, he finished third in a 3mile handicap hurdle – travelling well but seemingly not quite getting home.

He also ran a fair race on his seasonal debut at Fontwell, until lack of condition seemed to catch him out.

Head Spin is just 6 years old and with relatively few mile so on the clock, he could easily have enough scope to get the better of todays more exposed/more ‘quirky’ rivals…

Chief amongst those are Further More and Sablazo.

Those of you with good memories will recall that I had Further More down as a horse to follow earlier in the season.

However, 2 runs on, I now have him down as a horse to take on…

He strikes me a ‘bridle’ horse – and regardless of how well he appears to be travelling today, if we are still alongside him coming the last, I’ll think we have a good chance.

I would say similar of todays other main rival, Sabalazo.

Those of you who have the time, really must take 2 minutes to watch the end of his last race at Fontwell, on Boxing day.

I can honestly say, I’ve never seen a finish like it !

When you’ve watched it, you’ll maybe understand why I couldn’t possibly have tipped him today !

Like I say, I have no doubt that both Further More and Sablazo have sufficient talent to win todays race – but I feel their quirks out weight that talent.
Hopefully Head Spin has at least a similar level of talent – and I’m damn sure he doesn’t have the same level of quirkiness to go with it !

Hopefully that will see him home in front this afternoon…

0.5pt win Head Spin 4/1

3:30

My route into this particular race, was through our old friend Flemi Two Toes. However, during the course of my form study, I switched my allegiance and whilst I am still tipping him, it is as a saver, with Sarando as the main bet…

Those of you who follow the sport, will doubtless recall that Sarando was a fair chaser a couple of season back, when with Paul Webber..

His official rating reached a high of 153 over fences and he was in a the process of running a very good race in the 2011 Hennessey off that mark, when he took a crashing fall.

Maybe that left its mark, because he has been is serious decline since that point and was sold by connections in May, following a refusal at Exeter…

As is often the case with these old characters however, a change of scene seems to be working the oracle for him.

Now in the care of Alex Hales, he was given a pipe opener on the AW at Kempton in November and followed that up with a run over fences at Ascot, later that month.

His appetite for fences however still seems to be gone and he was pulled up in that race, having never travelled.

Next time out, on his penultimate outing, Sarando ran in what is turning out to be a very hot hurdle race at Chepstow and he ran much better…

He was still in the lead and going comfortably entering the home straight – and it was only over the last 3 hurdles that he weakened out of things.

Ultimately he finished behind a couple of todays rivals: Virginia Ash and Royal Native – but I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t turn round that form today.

On his subsequent and most recent outing, Sarando confirmed the promise of his Chepstow run by again running well to finish third at Warwick.

It is difficult to quantify what he achieved that day, but he went clear with the eventual first and second in what looked a decent enough contest, so my suspicion is that he built on his Chepstow run.

If he can do that again today, then I really do think he will run a big race…

The two I would fear most, are the favourite, Night of Passion and Flemi Tow Toes.

The former is bidding for a hatrick but has risen significantly in the weight for his last two wins.

Flemi Two Toes also won last time out – and he runs off a mark 7lb higher today.
However his last time out win was over fences and I’m sure he is a better horse over hurdles (he can’t negotiate them any more slowly than he does the bigger obstacles !).

If that is the case, then I think there is a distinct possibility he will be able to shrug off the weight rise – particularly over todays slightly longer trip and on very deep ground.

Between them, I think Sarando and Flemi Two Toes give us a nice position in this race, I won’t be doing the forecast myself, but I suspect I know one or two who will – I’ll be just be happy if one of them can come home in front !

0.25pt EW Sarando 20/1

0.25pt win Flemi Two Toes 8/1

I briefly considered tipping No Buts in the 3:00 race – but he faces two or three dangerous looking rivals…

He was 5/1 early – but just 3/1 now, so someone else clearly fancies him as well.

I would certainly expect him to run a good race – but he will only be a mention…

In the finale, I will again be keeping an eye on Fidelor.

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut and again ran well last time out on ground I thought would be too soft for him.

Today connections drop him back to 2miles (his seasonal debut was over a mile further !) so I’m not sure what their game is (I could guess – but I won’t !).

If he shows promise again today, he would definitely be of interest when he faces the right conditions…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Plum 1:30 Head Spin 4/1

Plum 3:30 Sarando 20/1

Plum 3:30 Flemi Two Toes 8/1

Mentions

Plum 3:00 No Buts (O)