daily write-up - Jan 15th

2 meetings today, at Newbury and Newcastle and whilst going reports suggests the ground will be riding soft at Newbury – Newcastle appears to be within a few showers of losing the fixture altogether (though that was how I envisaged things at Warwick on Saturday and they didn’t quite turn out that way !).

Aside from the 2:25 race, there isn’t a lot to get your teeth in to, at Newbury.

I didn’t expect to find anything at all at Newcastle, but I’m quite keen on the selection there (buoyed a little by the positive movement in the market).

Hopefully a least one of todays tips will come good and start us on the road to recovery for the month…

Looking at the blog, there have now been 23 responses to the poll – which is enough for me to gauge feelings on tipping the night before – plus 7 comments…

As has been the case with all of the discussion topics so far, the comments have all been excellent – it does warm me to see people really buying into the spirit of the posts…

I’ll not comment on things just yet – I’ll let the poll run its course and make a few comments on Sunday/Monday (so if you still want to cast a vote/make a comment, there is plenty of time left).

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tips…

Newbury

2:25

This is a really competitive race, where a case of sorts can be made for just about every runner…

In such circumstances, it can be argued that a race is best left alone, from a betting perspective – but ultimately, it all comes down to the odds on offer…

Handy Andy looked a much improved performer on his first 2 starts this season – both a Cheltenham.

In the first of those, he managed to give away a seemingly unassailable lead up the run in – but he made up for that with a comfortable victory next time out.

As a result of that win, his handicap mark rose from 123 to 131 – but he was still a well fancied 6/1 shot for his third outing of the season, in a very competitive 18 runner chase at Newbury’s Hennessey meeting.

Unfortunately he ran no sort of a race that day and was pulled up. I think we have to be prepared to ignore that run.

His next – and most recent – outing at Cheltenham also suggested that maybe his improvement had plateaued.

He finished seventh on New Years day, behind the ultra impressive Mendip Express. However, he actually ran better than the bare form of that race suggests. He was still on the heels of the leading group running down the hill and was only beaten off up the home straight.

That race was also run in ridiculous conditions, so it has to be debatable how reliable the form will turn out to be…

As a result of it however, Handy Andy’s mark was dropped 2lb thereby enabling him to just sneak into this 0-130 rated chase…

Back on a course where his record is 3 wins from 5 runs, I am hopeful that he will be able to bounce back to form today…

Of his rivals, then Wind and Waves and Restless Harry are the 2 that I fear most. However, both of those also have to bounce back from recent disappointing runs.

I will also be keeping an eye on Bendant. We were on him in the Mendip Express race at Cheltenham and he ran a similar race to Handy Andy.

However, I think that Handy Andy has the greater scope for improvement.

Time will tell if I’m right…

0.5pt win Handy Andy 14/1

Newcastle

2:10

Big Society is another horse from the handicap hurdle at Chepstow, that was responsible for Sarando and Virginia Ash…

As I mentioned on Monday when I tipped the former, that looks like it was a very strong contest for the grade and hopefully Big Society can confirm that further, today…

Big Society has actually run since that Chepstow race, in an equally strong looking handicap hurdle at Haydock.

He finished fifth in that particular race, having made a move half a mile from home, which took him a few lengths clear of his field.

He was ultimately reeled back relatively easily that day – but I would feel pretty confident that today, he is facing no rivals with the ability of the first 4 home in the Haydock contest.

Big Society has actually been dropped 3lb for the Haydock run – and he also runs over a half mile shorter trip today. I’m not sure that is necessarily in his favour – but if the ground is as bad as seems likely, then an ability to stay 3 miles has to be seen as a positive.

Big Society actually ran second off a mark 6lb higher than todays, in a novice handicap hurdle at Ludlow last February, so there can be little doubt that he is potentially well handicapped…

Based on their last time out runs, then Basford Bob and Northern Oscar would appear to be Big Society’s main rivals today.

However whilst it is true that both horses ran good races to be beaten less than a length, they were both parts of bunch finishes, caused by steadily run races.

There is chance that both were flattered by the way their respective  races worked out (though there is also a chance that they weren’t !) so neither are ones that I would be overly keen to side with, at relatively short odds…

The two races that Big Society contested look far more reliable as a form guides and I am optimistic that he can pay a further compliment to them both…

0.5pt win Big Society 10/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Newb 2:25 Handy Andy 14/1

Newc 2:10 Big Society 10/1