Daily write-up - Jan 2nd

Todays 2 NH meetings, at Huntingdon and Ayr, somewhat surprisingly, managed to survive the weather…

Having watched the racing at Cheltenham yesterday afternoon, I was pretty convinced that there would be no racing today (even acknowledging that Cheltenham is a fair way from Huntingdon - let alone Ayr !).

With rain apparently falling across the length and breadth of the country, Lingfield already abandoned on Friday and inspections scheduled for Saturday, it seemed as if we were going to be in  for a few barren days.

When my alerts didn’t come through yesterday evening, I felt I was a sign !

In fact, I’m not sure why I didn't send out an email last night saying ‘no tips’ – but I didn’t  (maybe it was fate ?!?!)

Anyway, it was only when I was writing the ‘no tips’ email this morning, that I stumbled across todays tip !

Ofcourse, I’d had a quick look at the cards last night – and whilst I could see a couple of mentions, I didn’t feel strongly enough about them to really consider them as tips (at the likely prices).

However, I had missed an innocuous looking 3 horse race – and with no alert to prompt me, it nearly got through the net.
Nearly, but not quite…!

Anyway, that’s the background explaining why communication this morning was a little ‘non standard’ – now here’s the rationale for the tip !!

Huntingdon

1:40

I tend, as a rule, to pay little attention to 3 horse races…

Even the outsider in a 3 horse race is generally going to be at a price that I would quickly dismiss in a bigger field.

The thing about bigger fields, is that you can often eliminate half of the runners quite quickly.

Take Come on Annie’s race on Tuesday – 9 went to post - but barely 3 had a chance of winning.
A little like todays race, really…

Come on Annie was 5/2 to win that contest – and Mentalist is 5/2 to win today.

Let’s hope the similarities don’t end there !!

We are already quite familiar with the 3 runners in today race:

Both Ringa Bay and Mentalist are previous tips: whilst Strawberry Hill is a previous mention…

All 3 lost when I put them up, so one of them is going to do better today !!

And I’m reasonably confident that one will be Mentlist..

I tipped him last time out when he finished fourth at Lingfield.

That was on the back of a very disappointing seasonal debut at Kempton (where he was pulled up). He ran much better at Lingfield – but it still seemed to me as if he would improve for the run.

Watching the race, I thought that we would want to be on him next time out –provided the ground was heavy – and voila !!

I don’t think that either of the other 2 will be push overs, however…

Ringa Bay also showed improved form the run after I tipped him and there is no good reason why he won’t run well this afternoon…
Similarly, Strawberry Hill won the race after he had been a mention and should again run a fair race today…

Of the pair, I would actually fear Ringa Bay a little more (despite the odds) – but I do think that Mentalist should be cherry ripe today; will relish the conditions – and has more scope for improvement than either of his rivals.

Let’s hope I’ve read things right !!

1pt win Mentalist 5/2

In the 12:40 race, I did wonder about giving Flemi Two Toes a chance – now that he’s got the heavy ground that I think he needs…

However, he does look very ponderous – and even in todays ground, I just wonder if he might get too far behind…

If he’d been a half decent price, I might have taken a risk, but not at 4/1…

On better ground, I might also have taken a chance on Fidelor…

His long absence is a bit of a worry – but he did run promisingly on his seasonal debut.
however, I really don’t think he wants today ground – and that coupled with him possibly needing the run, results in a risk too many…

A bit like Flemi Two Toes, it is painful to watch Arkose negotiate a fence – but his connections have seen sense and put him back over hurdles…

The problems with that, is that he’s not so nearly well handicapped over the smaller obstacles. However, he will relish the heavy ground – and can probably deal with his big weight.
A bit like Flemi, I might have taken a chance at a price – but that price wouldn’t be 7/2…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Hunt 1:40 Mentalist 5/2

Mentions

Hunt 12:40 Flemi Two Toes (P)

Hunt 1:10 Fidelor (C)

Hunt 2:10 Arkose (P)